#swfc Probably our worst half of the season so far. Plymouth showing everything we haven't: Tenacity, invention, movement, fluidity, connecting passes. (thread)
Plymouth have taken a leaf out of Rotherham's book and strangled our rythm by marking/pressing high when BPF is on the ball ready to distribute. I expect to see plenty more teams do the same against us considering how successful Plymouth (and R'ham) have been doing so.
There's a weird sense of passivity and lack of energy to us today. Byers, Wing have been bystanders too often and not adept at picking up the runs Plymouth make from central areas towards the sides that have been a simple, yet effective way to open us up time and again.
We're really missing Adeniran's bustling energy and strength central midfield to get more of a grip on the game and threaten more instantly, when we do win the ball off Plymouth (which, from a low base, we'd increasingly done).
Considering the talent in our line-up what has lacked is some more cool heads - Hutchinson and Bannan have both been their more hot-headed selves.
We've tried to weather a storm (lots of first time clearances, punts upfield to isolated+crowded out Gregory) instead of trying to change the weather, so to speak, which has allowed Plymouth a big measure of game control.
A Byers-Wing-Bannan midfield is superfluous if it can't control possession in central midfield.
Plymouth look really, really good and it's not just a case, IMHO, of us being poor (though we have been), but them making the simple pass then run on ahead and getting the ball played through.
At 2-0 down something does need to give. Marvin Johnson and Liam Palmer have both had torrid times on the left, and Sow has been the sole threat from the other side, while Hunt has had a mare defensively.
Our best move of the half was quickly moving the ball around Plymouth's many bodies in a small area pressing, with Bannan expertly moving after he'd passed - and other players moving too - so Bannan got time on the ball to switch it crossfield into loads of space and a…
…numerical advantage. Plymouth's organisation is compact, so we need much more of that movement - both early on in attacks, but especially also continuing in waves throughout them - to move Plymouth's defence around more and create the space for us to get on the ball.
BPF had a howler at the first goal, but as with the Morecambe goal: He's an aggressive keeper, who'll claim most balls into the box.
I really hope his actions at the second goal, doubting himself and staying on his line to allow a simple side-footed finish for Plymouth, isn't indicative of his confidence having been shook too much.
We find ourselves in a situation we were in plenty of times last season, but which is new to this group of players. At Morecambe we were *allowed* initiative back, but didn't actually threaten too much.
Here at Home Park we'll have to wrestle that from the home side unless they "do a Rotherham" and begin showing lapses in work rate and concentration from the über tenacious pressing they used for large parts of that first half.
At 2-0 down it's hard to see us salvage a draw here.
Our hope is Plymouth tiring, but for them to do so we, ourselves, need the energy to move their defensive structure around a lot more and be sharper with our passing and making more first time passes into feet to release players.
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#swfc Good things: There should be no doubt for these players that this sort of comatose laurel-resting, "big club going away to a lower league ground" sort of non-performance will see us crucified time and again, especially in this league, which has plenty of quality this year.
By some distance the worst we've been this season and at no point of the game did we have much of a handle on it. It looked like we were only seeing Plymouth's passes and movement 1-2 seconds after they were made and only then did we react to them.
We were so easy to play against: No organised pressure on their player in possession, so Plymouth given time to have player drop deep for the wall pass, swivel and run in behind onto a through ball from the first player.
I'm currently deep into writing a season review/preview thing that also has a lot of financial data and analysis - obviously needs tinkering now the accounts are out 😜
Enough pre-amble, here are some charts:
Revenue likely to be halved in 20-21 and decrease further in 21-22:
If we add on transfer fees received (and what can be assumed to be compensation fee for Steve Bruce), as well as likely Covid 19 furlough compensation, we're up to £13.6m of income in 20-21, which is still half 19-20's:
#swfc have 9 matches left to complete an unlikely relegation escape.
In the thread below, a look at the historical context of what a Great Escape would look like.
The points won by teams at the bottom of this season's Championship are tracking a typical season quite closely:
In general teams at the bottom improve their form more in the last 9 matches than teams further up the table, so we shouldn't assume the helping hand of a collapse by the teams above us:
The variation is quite big, though, and the most a team in 22nd after 37 matches ever won in the final 9 matches was 18 points. The same as the typical team in 1st:
Wednesday's issue this season has been creating chances for the forwards, not the forwards converting their chances. A theme that has continued on from last season.
Our forwards this season are scoring at the same rate they were last season - a goal every third game/0.32 goals per 90 minutes - from the same general quality of chances (Expected Goals (xG) of 0.33 per 90 minutes):
The issue isn't so much our forwards scoring as it is our midfielders (and defenders) not scoring (and not getting chances).
The forwards are par for the course considering the quality of their chances, whereas defenders and midfielders "owe" 7-8 goals; same as last season:
#swfc An attempt to make sense of our 2018/19 accounts, and football finance, in the far too long (sorry!) "read along" thread below.
tl;dr: Still in the purgatory of unsustainable spending and viable only for as long as Chansiri keeps underwriting £20m losses every year.
First things first: I'm just a dude in Denmark with a spreadsheet. There's no magic In The Know knowledge or other such things in what I do and have done. It's all based on publicly available sources of information treated to a bit of thinking.
How hard is it then to predict what the accounts will look like based on those public sources of information?
I've made projections repeatedly on Twitter over the last couple of years and perhaps summed up best in this blog post for @SWFCTrust:
#swfc How did the season end from here in the last 22 seasons?
Not many teams escape the bottom 3 in the last 12 matches.
Only 8 of 88 Play-Offs contestants have come from outside top 8 after 34 matches. Historically speaking it's a myth that everything is still up for grabs:
21st, Birmingham, are currently on course for 46 points at season's end. 18 points more than we have currently.
But the points won per game in the last 12 is for the bottom positions is higher than the first 34 matches - whereas it actually declines for the top positions:
50% of 21st positions have had points per game between 0.07 and 0.43 points per game higher in the last 12 than the first 34 matches.
For 21st this season it's a points per game in the last 12 matches between 1.07 and 1.43, meaning a finish of between 47 and 51 points.