L1s, Games and Jpegs have dramatically outperformed Ethereum DeFi and even if DeFi finally rips, it's going to be very hard to make up the delta.
Productive assets will always lose to imagination assets.
It will be funny if DeFi-BTC does finally catch up and marks the final stages of the ALTBTC cycle.
"Value" as the last thing to rally?
DeFi investing this cycle is akin to focusing on value stocks while $AMZN goes up only for ten years.
L1/Metaverse/JPEG bulls have more in common with $TSLA cultists than they do with DeFi farmers.
Again my thread is probably a bottom signal and I think DeFi is getting attractive here, but hard to see the speed and excitement for a potential DeFi autumn getting anywhere close to imagination summer.
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Exhaustion - not failure - is the enemy in markets. When the market gives traders a move they have anticipated for years, they don't want it anymore. BTC above $12k, ETHBTC above 0.04. It's almost like OG disbelief is a prerequisite for secular & lasting uptrends.
It feels like this is as common amongst VCs as traders. For whatever reason, a longstanding thesis will often only work after the "strongest hands" who bagheld for years finally give up and move on. Then it works exactly as they imagined.
Very weird & almost demonic. The market (perhaps this market in particular) is like one giant exorcism, transferring from weak to strong. It does everything it can to convince those who thought they were "strong hands" for years to destroy themselves at the final moment.
We're at the stage of the cycle where it's easy to make bad decisions BOTH as a bull and as a bear.
In 1-3YR, the market punishes euphoric private investors plowing into overvalued party rounds. In 3-9M, the market decimates shorts of any kind (BTCUSD, ALTUSD, ALTBTC).
It's the fragmented phase of the cycle. It's no longer enough to *just* get your macro bias correct.
Compare today's private market to Q1-Q3 last year.
You needed two things to make good decisions last year: the belief that primary markets were cheap, & access to solid teams sub $20m valuation.
There are no more decisions that will look or feel this easy.
PART I: THE END OF THE SAVER & UNSTOPPABLE RISE OF CENTRAL BANKING
PART II: SALVATION OF THE SAVER, IS CRYPTO READY FOR FIXED INCOME?
PART III: ANCHOR, DEFI’S RISK-FREE RATE & THE STRIPE FOR SAVINGS
PART I covers:
a) The end of the saver, Nixon’s capitulation and Gold’s final deathblow. The new orthodoxy that lionized the debt-craving consumer. Purchasing power dwindling to oblivion; the decline of savings as a % of GNI and real yields wheezing their way to zero.