JPR007 Profile picture
12 Sep, 4 tweets, 2 min read

With so many VW trolls getting excited about VW's balance sheet, it seems to be time to do a little snapshot review of Volkswagen Financial Services

These three pages are straight from the VW AG Annual Report for 2020
It is notable that VW expects to finance or lease "around 80% of Volkswagen Group electric vehicles" through Volkswagen Financial Services

This is extraordinarily high

- and looks rather like not selling the cars at all

This page describes where they get most of the money from
Volkswagen Financial Services has Liabilities of about €187.5 billion or about USD 222 billion

In addition it has €29.4 billion of Equity risk capital, for an Equity Ratio of 13.0%

Its Leverage Ratio is 6.4x

And its Return on Equity is 8.9% before tax or about 7.5% after tax
Naturally this low rate of Return on Equity would fail our 15% Equity Discount Rate

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More from @jpr007

15 Sep
Plug-in hybrids are a 'wolf in sheep's clothing' - BBC News

Carbon dioxide emissions from plug-in hybrid cars are as much as two-and-a-half times higher than official tests suggest, according to new research…
Plug-in hybrid vehicles are powered by an electric motor using a battery that is recharged by being plugged in or via an on-board petrol or diesel engine

They account for 3% of new car sales
But analysis from pressure groups Transport and Environment and Greenpeace suggest they emit an average of 120g of CO2 per km

That compares with the 44g per km in official "lab" tests
Read 22 tweets
15 Sep

GM has said early Bolt models will have their entire battery pack replaced, while newer models will have only defective modules within the pack replaced

Those new parts may not be available until after November…
The automaker said it has bought back some Bolts from owners and is reviewing such requests on a case-by-case basis

GM also has said it expects LG to help shoulder the $1.8 billion expense to replace Bolt battery packs
On Friday GM's Jacobson said the two companies are having "high level conversations" about costs, and that GM expects reimbursement

With resolution of the costly recall debacle still up in the air, relations between GM and LG have soured, people familiar with the situation said
Read 13 tweets
14 Sep

Electrek published an article based on totally false data criticising Tesla and promoting the concept of giving third-party vendors more access to Tesla service tools

They did this using fake material that Rich Rebuilds released in a YouTube video
Beware of headlines like this and be careful not to trust those who criticize Tesla for the purposes of promoting their own agenda

And be sure to do your own homework
Quick Details

1. They claimed Tesla wanted to charge $22,500 for a Battery Replacement on a 2013 Model S

- the correct price from Tesla is actually $10,500 as of last week
Read 6 tweets
14 Sep

The closer that we get to the end of the quarter, the more wild cards are emerging for the Shanghai side of production

Let's review them . . .
1. The month of September includes the Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival, which is a national holiday

- however, I am inclined to think that there are coverage plans in place to cope with this and keep production running steadily

- prior holidays have not had very visible impacts
2. It has been said that Shanghai Phase 1 is running at 800 cars per day, and recent upgrades to Phase 2 have given it an output of 1,000 cars per day

- this would result in an output of around 50,000 cars per month

- compared to my estimate of 41,000~44,264 units for September
Read 7 tweets
14 Sep

A quick review of the three key uncertainties in the estimates for Q3 production


- Q1 production was 102,426 with M3 on 4 shifts and MY on 3 shifts

- Q2 production was 114,391 with M3 on 4 shifts and MY on 4 shifts
In Q3 both Fremont M3 and MY should still be on 4 shifts with a combined nominal capacity of 125,000 units per quarter

So the uncertainty is :

- whether Q3 production will fall back to Q1 levels like the 102,991 projected here by Troy ?
- or whether Q3 production will meet and beat Q2 levels ?

I have projected 115,000 units, derived from the nominal capacity of 125,000 units reduced by 10,000 units for supply chain issues

The difference is +12,000 units
Read 12 tweets
13 Sep
NASA has selected SpaceX to launch the last in a series of geostationary weather satellites that had previously been launched by United Launch Alliance…
NASA announced on 10 September that it awarded a contract to SpaceX for the Falcon Heavy launch of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) U spacecraft

The launch is scheduled for April 2024 from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida
The agency said the contract is valued at $152.5 million

GOES-U is the fourth and final satellite in the GOES-R series of satellites, which monitor terrestrial and space weather from geostationary orbit
Read 16 tweets

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