People still aren't talking about Parachains and the absurd implications of the $MOVR phenomena top of the morning to you
Shitpost aside, TLDR:
- $MOVR is Moonbeam's test token (akin to $GLMR)
- It's trading at $4.2b
- If {Moonbeam} trades at a similar premium to $MOVR as $DOT to $KSM (9-12x), it could approach parity to $DOT FDV
- Either a giant victory for EVM maxis *OR* implies $DOT re-rating
None of this is advice, we are long $DOT, long @MoonbeamNetwork - just super interesting to me. IMO one of the most under-discussed headlines of the past week, the outcome of which will have giant implications for the relationship between $DOT and the Parachains.
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Exhaustion - not failure - is the enemy in markets. When the market gives traders a move they have anticipated for years, they don't want it anymore. BTC above $12k, ETHBTC above 0.04. It's almost like OG disbelief is a prerequisite for secular & lasting uptrends.
It feels like this is as common amongst VCs as traders. For whatever reason, a longstanding thesis will often only work after the "strongest hands" who bagheld for years finally give up and move on. Then it works exactly as they imagined.
Very weird & almost demonic. The market (perhaps this market in particular) is like one giant exorcism, transferring from weak to strong. It does everything it can to convince those who thought they were "strong hands" for years to destroy themselves at the final moment.
We're at the stage of the cycle where it's easy to make bad decisions BOTH as a bull and as a bear.
In 1-3YR, the market punishes euphoric private investors plowing into overvalued party rounds. In 3-9M, the market decimates shorts of any kind (BTCUSD, ALTUSD, ALTBTC).
It's the fragmented phase of the cycle. It's no longer enough to *just* get your macro bias correct.
Compare today's private market to Q1-Q3 last year.
You needed two things to make good decisions last year: the belief that primary markets were cheap, & access to solid teams sub $20m valuation.
There are no more decisions that will look or feel this easy.