People still aren't talking about Parachains and the absurd implications of the $MOVR phenomena top of the morning to you
Shitpost aside, TLDR:
- $MOVR is Moonbeam's test token (akin to $GLMR)
- It's trading at $4.2b
- If {Moonbeam} trades at a similar premium to $MOVR as $DOT to $KSM (9-12x), it could approach parity to $DOT FDV
- Either a giant victory for EVM maxis *OR* implies $DOT re-rating
None of this is advice, we are long $DOT, long @MoonbeamNetwork - just super interesting to me. IMO one of the most under-discussed headlines of the past week, the outcome of which will have giant implications for the relationship between $DOT and the Parachains.

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More from @ninos_mansor

11 Sep
L1s, Games and Jpegs have dramatically outperformed Ethereum DeFi and even if DeFi finally rips, it's going to be very hard to make up the delta.

Productive assets will always lose to imagination assets.
It will be funny if DeFi-BTC does finally catch up and marks the final stages of the ALTBTC cycle.

"Value" as the last thing to rally?
DeFi investing this cycle is akin to focusing on value stocks while $AMZN goes up only for ten years.

L1/Metaverse/JPEG bulls have more in common with $TSLA cultists than they do with DeFi farmers.
Read 4 tweets
10 Sep
EVM compatibility + L1 scaling are the winning memes of this cycle
It is a highly contrarian combination

It is the idea that we can somehow preserve the EVM while moving toward a multi-chain world which is abandoning Ethereum supremacy

That we can somehow conserve the old world while moving to one that is completely uncharted.
This is why @avalancheavax TVL exploded in just days...

The @BenqiFinance launch demonstrated the $AVAX merger of EVM + L1 scaling

It could also be why $MOVR is quickly becoming the defining tale of the Parachains
Read 4 tweets
22 Jun
The art of countertrading your own emotions

how do I become more excited the more I am *genuinely* scared

This apparent paradox is either mental illness or alpha, you decide
But how do you know when you're *genuinely scared* for good reasons (your gut is telling you that your data is telling you to be scared)

Or when you're scared because your lizard brain is taking over
How to know if it's the lizard brain? Signs/ thought patterns I have observed in myself:

*avoidance - "don't look"
*getting existential - thinking variants of "it's over"
*extreme lethargy - barely want to get out of bed, etc.
Read 4 tweets
6 May
This cycle, primary markets are maintaining some discipline relative to public market growth.

Raised at 25m when BTC was at $10k, now raising at 70-100m with BTC at $55k?

"Pricey"? Yes. But vals not ballooning vs BTC/ETH growth, a very different picture to the last cycle.
17/18 was the age of the parabolic VC. Huge rounds, blatant markups and a world where raising $10m was conservative.

This time around, rounds are tight & valuations slowly chug higher; with second/third rounds often underperforming liquid growth.

An old graphic by @ninormansor
This won't last forever & I'd argue the tide is beginning to turn with 80-150m becoming the new norm for marque deals.

But it's a good sign that we are mid-cycle & the catchup between public & private is still somewhat laggy.

Smarter & more patient capital.
Read 6 tweets
29 Apr
Exhaustion - not failure - is the enemy in markets. When the market gives traders a move they have anticipated for years, they don't want it anymore. BTC above $12k, ETHBTC above 0.04. It's almost like OG disbelief is a prerequisite for secular & lasting uptrends.
It feels like this is as common amongst VCs as traders. For whatever reason, a longstanding thesis will often only work after the "strongest hands" who bagheld for years finally give up and move on. Then it works exactly as they imagined.
Very weird & almost demonic. The market (perhaps this market in particular) is like one giant exorcism, transferring from weak to strong. It does everything it can to convince those who thought they were "strong hands" for years to destroy themselves at the final moment.
Read 4 tweets
6 Apr
We're at the stage of the cycle where it's easy to make bad decisions BOTH as a bull and as a bear.

In 1-3YR, the market punishes euphoric private investors plowing into overvalued party rounds. In 3-9M, the market decimates shorts of any kind (BTCUSD, ALTUSD, ALTBTC).
It's the fragmented phase of the cycle. It's no longer enough to *just* get your macro bias correct.
Compare today's private market to Q1-Q3 last year.

You needed two things to make good decisions last year: the belief that primary markets were cheap, & access to solid teams sub $20m valuation.

There are no more decisions that will look or feel this easy.
Read 10 tweets

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