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13 Sep, 28 tweets, 4 min read
Volkswagen's China partners bristle as carmaker lavishes love on new venture

Reuters reuters.com/business/autos…
Volkswagen is in talks to tighten its grip on a majority-owned joint venture in China, sparking tensions with the German automaker's other Chinese partners who fear they could be sidelined, sources familiar with the matter said
The world's second-biggest carmaker secured a controlling 75% stake in a venture with China's JAC in 2020 after Beijing relaxed rules that had previously barred foreign firms from owning majority stakes in local auto companies
Volkswagen took control of one of JAC's plants in the eastern city of Hefei last year, and is now in talks to buy another as part of a big expansion in electric vehicles (EVs), three sources with knowledge of the matter said
That has rattled Volkswagen's other Chinese partners, SAIC Motor and FAW, which want the German group to commit more models to their own ventures, sources at Volkswagen, the Chinese firms and joint ventures told Reuters

The stakes are high
Boosting its majority-owned business would mean Volkswagen wouldn't have to share so much profit with state-run partners and can accelerate its EV push without having so many partner negotiations in the world's biggest car market
But the German group can't afford a false step, as it now makes about 40% of sales and half of its profits in China - mostly through its ventures with SAIC and FAW
In a sign of its ambitions, Volkswagen is planning to relocate hundreds of Beijing-based staff to Hefei, according to Volkswagen sources and a memo seen by Reuters

Beer gardens are being set up around the Hefei plant to create a German atmosphere for its employees
JAC's chairman Xiang Xingchu said last year it expected the joint venture to make 200,000-250,000 vehicles in 2025 and 350,000-400,000 in 2029
Volkswagen told Reuters the venture's portfolio would not directly compete with those of its other joint businesses in China, but would rather be complementary
"The investment is a long-term strategic decision as we expect the total NEV new energy vehicle market in China to grow to around 30 million NEVs by 2030," it said

That would be up from around 1.4 million NEVs last year

FAW, JAC and SAIC declined to comment
Volkswagen has a 50-50 venture with SAIC, and holds 40% of its venture with FAW

Separately, Volkswagen is also considering producing light duty trucks in China, possibly at a revamped JAC truck plant, two of the sources said
The sources cautioned Volkswagen has not made decisions on these plans and they are subject to change

The German group declined to comment

Selling its Hefei plant would leave JAC only making passenger cars under the Sihao marque in nearby Anqing city, one of the sources said
The Chinese company, whose parent group is owned by Volkswagen and local government, still makes trucks and vans under its own brand
TENSIONS

Volkswagen is the most successful foreign automaker in China, selling around 3.85 million vehicles there last year despite the pandemic

That compares with General Motors' 2.9 million vehicles and Toyota's 1.8 million
"It's fair to say that without VW, the Chinese autos industry wouldn't exist as we know it today and vice versa," Bernstein analysts said in a recent a research note
"No global OEM (original equipment manufacturer) is bigger in China and has leveraged the benefits more than VW. China was and remains the source of about 50% of VW's earnings and cash flows"
In its early years Shanghai-based SAIC-Volkswagen helped Volkswagen break into the market with local production of the Santana sedan in 1985
FAW-Volkswagen, meanwhile, made Audi the first locally-produced premium car model in China, grabbing orders from the government and leading its competition with BMW and Daimler
At their height, Santana and FAW-Volkswagen's Jetta and Citroen Fukang - compact sedans together known as the "old three" - made up a majority of China's car market in the 1990s
SAIC-Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen are now seeking assurances their businesses won't suffer as Volkswagen looks to step up investment in Hefei, five of the sources said
"We laid good ground for Volkswagen in China so it cannot abandon us in the future," one senior FAW source said

Tensions between the partners are not new

Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess riled SAIC in 2019 when he told the media he planned to increase stakes in Chinese ventures
SAIC responded that any major decision related to the joint venture required discussions by both partners and it was "disappointed" Volkswagen would announce such an important issue without coordinating with it
The Chinese firms frequently ask for more models to boost their ventures, and negotiations have not always been smooth

SAIC said publicly in both 2018 and 2019 that its MEB factory would make electric Audi cars
However, Volkswagen was then not fully on board with the plan, sources said, although there have been signs of progress recently
A filing by China's industry ministry last month showed an electric Audi SUV, similar in size to Volkswagen's ID.6 7-seat electric model, was pending regulatory approval
FAW meanwhile has pressed Volkswagen for a standalone electric venture in which Audi would hold a 75% stake and FAW 25%

However, three of the sources said the project was struggling to pass Volkswagen's internal feasibility review
"Two old partners keep asking for more models that we cannot satisfy. This is torturing," one senior Volkswagen executive said

Volkswagen now has over 50 models in China

General Motors has 60, including many mini-van models, and Toyota around 20

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More from @jpr007

15 Sep
Plug-in hybrids are a 'wolf in sheep's clothing' - BBC News

Carbon dioxide emissions from plug-in hybrid cars are as much as two-and-a-half times higher than official tests suggest, according to new research
bbc.com/news/science-e…
Plug-in hybrid vehicles are powered by an electric motor using a battery that is recharged by being plugged in or via an on-board petrol or diesel engine

They account for 3% of new car sales
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Read 22 tweets
15 Sep
CHEVROLET BOLT

GM has said early Bolt models will have their entire battery pack replaced, while newer models will have only defective modules within the pack replaced

Those new parts may not be available until after November
reuters.com/business/autos…
The automaker said it has bought back some Bolts from owners and is reviewing such requests on a case-by-case basis

GM also has said it expects LG to help shoulder the $1.8 billion expense to replace Bolt battery packs
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Read 13 tweets
14 Sep
LESSON OF THE DAY 20210914

Electrek published an article based on totally false data criticising Tesla and promoting the concept of giving third-party vendors more access to Tesla service tools

They did this using fake material that Rich Rebuilds released in a YouTube video
Beware of headlines like this and be careful not to trust those who criticize Tesla for the purposes of promoting their own agenda

And be sure to do your own homework
Quick Details

1. They claimed Tesla wanted to charge $22,500 for a Battery Replacement on a 2013 Model S

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Read 6 tweets
14 Sep
SHANGHAI PRODUCTION 2021 Q3 - MORE WILD CARDS

The closer that we get to the end of the quarter, the more wild cards are emerging for the Shanghai side of production

Let's review them . . .
1. The month of September includes the Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival, which is a national holiday

- however, I am inclined to think that there are coverage plans in place to cope with this and keep production running steadily

- prior holidays have not had very visible impacts
2. It has been said that Shanghai Phase 1 is running at 800 cars per day, and recent upgrades to Phase 2 have given it an output of 1,000 cars per day

- this would result in an output of around 50,000 cars per month

- compared to my estimate of 41,000~44,264 units for September
Read 7 tweets
14 Sep
TESLA Q3 PRODUCTION - QUICK CHECK

A quick review of the three key uncertainties in the estimates for Q3 production

1. FREMONT M3 / MY

- Q1 production was 102,426 with M3 on 4 shifts and MY on 3 shifts

- Q2 production was 114,391 with M3 on 4 shifts and MY on 4 shifts
In Q3 both Fremont M3 and MY should still be on 4 shifts with a combined nominal capacity of 125,000 units per quarter

So the uncertainty is :

- whether Q3 production will fall back to Q1 levels like the 102,991 projected here by Troy ?
- or whether Q3 production will meet and beat Q2 levels ?

I have projected 115,000 units, derived from the nominal capacity of 125,000 units reduced by 10,000 units for supply chain issues

The difference is +12,000 units
Read 12 tweets
13 Sep
NASA has selected SpaceX to launch the last in a series of geostationary weather satellites that had previously been launched by United Launch Alliance
spacenews.com/spacex-wins-co…
NASA announced on 10 September that it awarded a contract to SpaceX for the Falcon Heavy launch of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) U spacecraft

The launch is scheduled for April 2024 from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida
The agency said the contract is valued at $152.5 million

GOES-U is the fourth and final satellite in the GOES-R series of satellites, which monitor terrestrial and space weather from geostationary orbit
Read 16 tweets

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