CA Recall: 68% reporting. @GavinNewsom/#noonrecall is ahead 64-36. Newsom/No is within +/- 2 points of Biden's number vs Trump in 2020 in most…
I think the political lesson from this Recall is that 1. We're still in a pandemic; 2. The coalitions that formed during the pandemic of '20 on both sides still exist; 3. This Dem coalition remains active and durable against clear challenges.
If there's a hint for '22, I think it's that Asian voters were very solidly against the recall from the beginning and delivered for Newsom. That Demo may be more Democratic in '22, and that changes the congressional map in CA and other states.
As for Latinos, it does seem like Dems got to Biden margins w/Latinos (maybe even slightly higher?) as Newsom/Biden numbers are very close. The nominal shifts could be attributed to lower Latino turnout, which slightly amplifies the impact of GOP leaning white voters.
The nonwhite electorate is going to be very winnable for Dems in '22, and they can get higher margins than Biden did in '20. They don't follow media narratives or 538 correlations. Just engage and GOTV. See Eric Adams & Gavin Newsom.
Btw, here is the exit poll for California from the '20 election. Newsom likely matched this.

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More from @blankslate2017

17 Jun
I hesitate to praise the @theintercept, but I'm going to praise the Intercept. This is a great article and provides a real window into what Manchin is thinking and how lobbying/interest groups operate in DC.…
My read of this: Manchin appears much closer to siding w/ the Dem caucus than has been previously reported and is telling this 'centrist' PAC (founded by Joe Lieberman) that they have to move some GOP votes to reach 60 on some measures or he's going with his party.
Manchin is telling donors that unless he can find 10 good GOPers, the left is going to win the argument on the filibuster and it will be dead (note: it's already dead for GOP priorities thanks to McConnell. Mitch just keeps it around to troll Dems & dare them to kill it off).
Read 9 tweets
16 Jan
Axios & media miss key points in the Trump 'from rigging to riot' timeline. Here it is: 1. Dems win WI Judicial race in April w/large absentee vote; 2. Trump rails against USPS. DeJoy goes to work to slow mail delivery for the specific purpose to delay delivery/acceptance of VBM.
3. Trump spends months discrediting VBM. His base listens. Dems adapt by getting ballots in early and using in person EV; 4. Trump works w/GOP legislatures in PA/MI/WI to delay counting VBM ballots so that he can claim to be 'ahead' on election night and declare victory;
Delay in counting VBM sets the stage to discredit later counts that put Biden over the top in swing states. Strategy was dependent on winning FL/NC. Had Trump lost 1 or both (esp. FL), Trump would've been forced to accept defeat.
Read 24 tweets
9 Jan
If you watched the tea party's rise, you could see this coming. There was no rational reason to be that incensed over a Black man getting elected POTUS in the midst of a failed war and the Great Recession...other than the fact that said Black man's 'blackness' triggered them.
At the end of the day, the root of Trumpism is America's long standing disease of racism. Racism for America is like herpes. It's flares up and subsides but it's always there. Too many white folks are simply oblivious to what people of color have always seen.
On the other hand, a lot of white folks do recognize that they see the world in racial zero sum terms and are perfectly ok with fascism as a choice instead of co-existence under a rule of law. Unity among all Americans doesn't exist for them unless they're undisputedly on top.
Read 5 tweets
9 Jan
Text of the Impeachment Resolution
It's very simple & short as it's a little over 3 pages. Article 1 is entitled, "Incitement of Insurrection". It focuses on the Trump rally in front of the WH during the deliberations on the electoral vote count in Congress in which he made false claims about the election.
The resolution next states that Trump "willfully made statements that encouraged—and foreseeably resulted in—imminent lawless action at the Capitol." He incited a riot which resulted in a mob attacking the Capitol and interfering in the process to certify the results.
Read 13 tweets
8 Jan
Proof that #impeachment works: "Only...after the Capitol had been besieged by death and destruction and a growing chorus of lawmakers had called for his immediate removal from office, did Trump grudgingly accept his fate."…
WAPO also confirm that Pence, Acting DoD Sec Miller, JCS Chair Milley, Pelosi, Schumer and McConnell coordinated to address the security issues during the Insurrection. Trump was disengaged and didn't participate. He didn't delegate his authority. Pence acted w/out authority.
Pence, Sec. Miller and Milley did what was necessary to quell the coup, but they acted outside the chain of command. They acted illegally.
Read 7 tweets
8 Jan
In moving to #ImpeachTheMFerAgain, let's not forget the deep seated misogyny of those responsible. Rioters stormed her office, took her things & showed her disrespect. The Trumpers targeted her.
The Capitol Police Chief didn't even return her calls after failing at his job at putting lives at risk. The DoD failed to provide security for the #3 public official in the gov't (and also the #2).
On top of that, as soon as Congress returned, a majority of House Republicans continued their seditionist lies that spawned the insurrection in the first place, often hurling them while she sat in the Speaker's chair.
Read 4 tweets

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