CA Recall: 68% reporting. @GavinNewsom/#noonrecall is ahead 64-36. Newsom/No is within +/- 2 points of Biden's number vs Trump in 2020 in most counties.nytimes.com/interactive/20…
I think the political lesson from this Recall is that 1. We're still in a pandemic; 2. The coalitions that formed during the pandemic of '20 on both sides still exist; 3. This Dem coalition remains active and durable against clear challenges.
If there's a hint for '22, I think it's that Asian voters were very solidly against the recall from the beginning and delivered for Newsom. That Demo may be more Democratic in '22, and that changes the congressional map in CA and other states.
As for Latinos, it does seem like Dems got to Biden margins w/Latinos (maybe even slightly higher?) as Newsom/Biden numbers are very close. The nominal shifts could be attributed to lower Latino turnout, which slightly amplifies the impact of GOP leaning white voters.
The nonwhite electorate is going to be very winnable for Dems in '22, and they can get higher margins than Biden did in '20. They don't follow media narratives or 538 correlations. Just engage and GOTV. See Eric Adams & Gavin Newsom.
Btw, here is the exit poll for California from the '20 election. Newsom likely matched this. 
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
