Thread by @EspeelStef

In this thread, I will concisely explain what my #PhD (in history), which I defended last month (@UAntwerpen), is about. #ThesisThread #twitterstorians #medievaltwitter

If you're interested in premodern (or late medieval) famines and grain price shocks, read on! 👇 1/20

The big debate within the study of hunger and food crises largely hinges on the question of if the production rather than the allocation of food was decisive in the development of famine.

The (inter)regional trade in food is crucial in that debate. 2/20

A lot of research has focussed on how poorly functioning markets caused famines, while we shall see that this was not the case in 14th C Flanders. Furthermore, that 14th C is perfect to study these price shocks, as it is central in the debate on the late medieval crisis. 3/20

According to the Malthusian logic, food crises would have disappeared after the disastrous death rates of the Black Death, but this was in no case true. In the following decades, price shocks on the grain market still occurred, in Flanders and beyond. 4/20

However, our knowledge of the 14th C grain market is seriously hampered by the lack of reliable market prices for the period before 1350 (thus before the Black Death). My PhD, therefore, goes back to the beginning of the 14th C, for five different cities. 5/20

My focus is on Bruges, Ghent, Lille and Douai in Flanders and Cambrai just outside of it. Feeding their population became progressively harder throughout the Middle Ages due to the increasing urbanisation rate and the dependence of the urban population on the grain market. 6/20

Within those cities, the accounts of hospitals, abbeys and collegiate churches (institutions that act as producers, distributors and consumers of grain) give plenty of information on the income and expense of grain, and its prices. 7/20

These prices are gathered from different sales, which are (in most cases) dated with respect to a certain Feast Day. Based on +6000 transactions, five price series have been constructed for the cities in question, with monthly averages where possible. 8/20

In the long term, a parallel price movement could be discerned between these cities, but an absolute difference was nonetheless present: in Bruges wheat was most expensive, while in Cambrai it was about 50 to 60 per cent cheaper. 9/20

In the short term, 6 price peaks were identified: 1315-7 (the Great Famine), 1320-3, 1339-43 (start of 100y war), 1348-52 (Black Death), 1359-61, 1367-70. Even though the peak during the Great Famine was incomparable, others also implicate an increase with factor 2 or 3. 10/20

Regarding the degree of market integration, this was the highest between 1347-76, with a high degree of price convergence, parallel evolutions and low price volatility.

Thus the Flemish grain market functioned better during periods of crisis. 11/20

Additionally, the already largely integrated region of the Low Countries (from Cambrai to Utrecht and from Furnes to Maastricht) also had (although weaker) economic ties to England, from the 14th C onwards. 12/20

But what do these price shocks mean for the food provisioning of urban households? As constructing CPI's for this period is not (yet) possible, I have assessed the deficit in calories by confronting grain prices and daily wages.

The different peaks had a different impact...13/20

After the Great Famine (for which dated prices lack), the price peak of 1359-61 had the worst impact on hunger. Bruges & Ghent also seem to prevent the absolute price peak, which could hint at a better (or more diverse) strategy regarding food provisioning. 14/20

Additionally, 14th C Flanders knew 4 outbreaks of the plague (1349-52, 1359-61, 1367-70, 1399-00), which all coincided with a food crisis. However, the chronological link remains obscure, but there is little to no proof of a subsistence crisis before an epidemic. 15/20

Then one could turn towards the impact of speculation on the production of price crises. Documentation on large merchants is lacking, but the large landlords' strategy on the grain market can be analysed. 16/20

Their largest profits are not solely realised during price peaks, and the composition of the third parties buying the grain (large merchants, bakers or consumers) does not change between high and low price periods, which hints strongly at the absence of speculation. 17/20

This was because their own provisioning was of primary importance and only their surpluses were sold. These landlords are thus important actors on the market but do not actively steer their sales. They are 'takers' rather than 'makers' of price shocks. 18/20

In conclusion, 4 important findings have to be stressed: 1/ the dated prices: too much previous research has used annual avgs, which obscure intra-annual variations; 2/ identifying the 14th C peaks, their coincidence with plague and the better functioning of the market; 19/20

3/ difference between cities: Bru & Ghe digested the absolute peaks better; 4/ the large landlords with huge grain income are important but do not engage in active market steering.

This #PhD certainly speaks for the use of dated prices to analyse premodern price peaks.🎓 20/20