9/16 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Hospitalizations with big drop of -220
2) Cases big decline vs last week
3) Pos% & Testing, like cases, are all over the place.
4) 372 Fatalities reported, -36 vs last week.

1/n
.
9/16 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/8 at 13.58%
* We will see what Monday looks like as far as shake out on all the post-school testing, and Labor Day hiccups, its all a mess
* Covidestim Rt up from 0.68 to 0.72

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
9/16 Cases

* Case Peak 9/14
* 14.9K Cases reported, vs 23.7K last Thurs
* Case 7DMA WoW declines 3%. Literally all over the place
* Meh

3/n
. ImageImage
9/16 Hospitalizations

* -220 to 12597. Last Wed was -34
* Lowest Census since 8/17
* Single Day Peak is 8/25 - 13932
* 7DMA Rate of Decline at -4.2%
* Another big drop mid-week. Was hoping for sub 12.5K census by end of the weekend but that isn't going to be a problem.

4/n
. ImageImageImage
9/16 - Hosp Covid Admits

* Statewide Admits down a huge 244 from last Thurs. 7DMA down 299 from peak on 8/23
* Statewide 7DMA Rate of Decline of 7.8% Week over Week
* TMC 7DMA down an 9.9% WoW. SETRAC not out yet today, yesterday was -15.3% WoW
* Admits look great

5/n
. ImageImage
9/16 Fatalities Part 1:

* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 thru 8/25, 2020 thru 7/25, waves 13 mo apart
* Fatalities thru above:
* 2020 - 6894, 260 7DMA
* 2021 - 5765, 242 7DMA
* Despite WAY higher hosps at this point in the wave, fatalities running ~17% lower than 2020.

6/n
. ImageImage
9/16 Fatalities Part 2

* 372 Reported. -36 from Last Thurs
* 92% of the fatalities reported from within last 3 weeks. 70% within last 2.
* We are reporting mostly into post-hospitalization peak now. Likely will be a large gap between fatalities and the hosp peak line

7/n
. ImageImage
9/16 Conclusion

* Great day all around. Hospitalizations really starting to drop like a rock. Should be a really good weekend.

9/end

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More from @therealarod1984

18 Sep
9/17 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Hospitalizations with another good drop
2) Cases continue steady decline
3) Pos% & Testing not showing pre Labor day strength.
4) 377 Fatalities reported, -23 vs last week.

1/n
.
9/17 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/9 at 13.41%
* Testing and positive tests so far don't appear will fully rebound to pre-Labor Day highs
* Covidestim Rt down from 0.72 to 0.69

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
9/17 Cases

* Case Peak 9/14
* 13.9K Cases reported, vs 19.5K last Fri
* Case 7DMA WoW declines 9%.
* Now we watch to see if the testing drop off translates in the coming days and we do not see a new case peak.

3/n
. ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
14 Sep
9/14 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) New & likely final Case peak
2) Hospitalizations continue to drop
3) Pos% & testing hit Labor Day decline
4) Fatality breakdown on 296 reported

1/n
.
9/14 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/6 at 13.14%.
* Testing hits Labor Day wall, with big decline, and doubtful it comes back to same rate. 100K+ tests taken right out of the 7DMA on a single day.
* Covidestim Rt up from 0.69 to 0.74

2/n
.
9/14 Cases

* New Case Peak 9/14
* 17.3K Cases reported, vs 6.0K last Tues
* Case 7DMA WoW up 31%. Literally all over the place
* This should be the final peak. With Labor Day impacting testing numbers, and huge comps coming up, should not be seeing another new peak set

3/n
.
Read 9 tweets
13 Sep
9/13 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Hospitalizations with a strong decline today
2) Cases- chance of new peak tomorrow, likely last possible new peak date
3) Pos% & testing have flattened thru 1st week of Sep
4) Fatality breakdown on 46 reported

1/n
.
9/13 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/5 at 13.41%. It has flattened out into first of Sep as of right now
* Testing new high of 1.075 Million tests per week on 9/3
* Rate of growth still all near 0 or decline
* Covidestim Rt declines to 0.69!!

2/n
.
9/13 Cases

* 8.1K Cases reported, vs 2.6K last Labor
* Case 7DMA WoW down 3%
* Peak is 9/5
* If 14.7K cases tomorrow, new peak will be set. Which is nuts since Hospitalizations peaked end of August. Its a factor of massive testing and case reporting antiquity
.
3/n
Read 9 tweets
12 Sep
9/12 Texas Case, Hosp & Fatalities: Mobile Edition

THREAD:

Summary:

* Cases down vs last Sun
* Hospitalizations with a decent drop
* Admits continue strong decline

1/n
.
9/12 Cases

Cases today - 3952
Last Sunday - 6844
Change vs last week - minus 2.9k
7DMA Rate of decline - 13.6%
Today 7DMA - 12999
Peak 7DMA - 15039 9/5

Two super weak comps coming up with about 15K in the 7DMA peak bank. After that its brutal post Labor Day catchup comps
.
2/n
9/12 Hospitalizations

* Hospitalizations - 13230 down from 13285
* Vs yesterday -55. Compared to last Sun daily decline of -25
* 7DMA Rate of decline - 2.8%
* ICU - 3758, -58 from yesterday

The dam should be about to break. Admits dropping more strongly than census
.
3/n
Read 6 tweets
11 Sep
9/11 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Hospitalizations with a strong decline today
2) Cases decline Week over week
3) Saw some Labor Day catch up on tests & positives. A bunch of older tests from end of Aug
4) Fatality breakdown on 357 reported

1/n
.
9/11 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/3 at 13.51%. Thousands of tests between 8/29 and 9/2, a ton of positives. Should shake itself out by Monday
* Maybe 8 days back isnt far enough
* Rate of growth still all near 0 or decline
* Covidestim Rt holds at 0.72

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
9/11 Cases

* New record 7DMA of 151.3K tests per day on 9/2.
* That's 1.06 Million tests a week. #nuts
* 10.1K Cases reported, vs 13.9K last Sat
* Case 7DMA WoW down 7%
* Peak is 9/5
* Can't guarantee we don't have a new peak on Mon or Tues with low comps of Labor Day

3/n
. ImageImageImage
Read 9 tweets
10 Sep
9/10 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

1) Testing & Postive tests on the decline thru 9/2
2) Harris trying to keep this going. Cases flat WoW
3) Hosps down vs yest & Last week. Ready from some strong declines
4) Fatality breakdown on 400 reported

1/n
.
9/10 Indicators

* Total positivity rate as of 9/2 at 12.88% (Changed Calcs to be more accurate)
* Testing through 9/2, definitely a peak late August. Positives were in decline.
* Covidestim with another drop in Rt to 0.72
* Everything at ~0% growth or decline
2/n
.
9/10 Cases

* 19.5K Cases reported, vs 19.2K last Fri
* Case 7DMA WoW down 3%
* Peak is 9/5
* Harris dumped 7.5K. Trying their best to keep it going. 2 more tough comps next 2 days, not expecting a new peak at this point. Especially with positives declining through 9/2

3/n
.
Read 9 tweets

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