Thread by @MoriartyLab

Canadians,

We have to STOP this narrative that people who aren't yet fully vaccinated are vaccine-refusers.

It distracts from other big, underlying problems.

As of Sep 4, 1.8M people 60+ aren't fully vaxxed. There is no refusal in this group. Only fear and/or access problems.

Where do these vulnerable people live?

ON 380K
BC 139K
AB 119K
QC 113K
SK 33K
NB 22K
NS 20K
MB 15K
NL 13K
PEI 2K
NUV, NWT, YK <1K

As of Sep 4, 322K people 70+ aren't fully vaxxed. There is no refusal in this group. Only fear and/or access problems.

Where?

ON 168K
BC 45K
AB 44K
QC 23K
SK 12K
NB 8K
NS 7K
NL 3K
MB 2K
NUV, NWT, PEI, YK <1K

This is NOT vaccine refusal. People need support, not judgement.

cc @NightShiftMD

P.S. these are data from @GovCanHealth , updated this Friday.

We still have BIG problems with speed of vaccination of older populations in multiple provinces.

Let's look at vaccination among people 80+.

Here is when all people 80+ will finally be fully vaccinated, based on vax rates Aug 28-Sep 4/21.

already achieved: NWT
Oct 2: QC, NB
Oct 30: MB
Nov 27: PEI
Dec 25: BC
Jan 22: NL
Feb 19: NS

Not until after Sep, 2022: AB, ON, SK

And here is how many people 80+ are NOT yet fully vaccinated. Zero refusal. ALL access and/or hesitancy.

CAN 122K
ON 71K
AB 17K
BC 14K
QC 7K
SK 5K
NB, NL, NS 2K
MB, NUV, NWT, PEI <1K

OK, folks, I know there is a really wide range of opinions on this topic in this thread, and I do understand why.

To talk about this problem, I'd like people to look at the data for 2 provinces that HAVE done very well for vaccinating older people.

One is Quebec, which is the gold standard in the country, as I'll explain below. However, you could argue that the Fox problem is much smaller in QC because most people are francophone (likely very true).

The second example I'll use is Manitoba, which is Western and anglophone.

The Atlantic provinces are also a great example, but it's too hard for me to quickly do the calculations for the group as a whole, so I'll use Manitoba.

I have a work deadline, so trying to save time--thought about shutting Twitter, but I see this thread is spurring a lot of discussion and pushback, and I really want people to see why I made the statement at the top, based on the data.

I shouldn't have used an absolute statement--something as I scientists that I rarely do. There are refusers among people 60 and older, but they are a small % of the unvaccinated in this age group.

So, first, it is not only possible to ensure that >99% of people 60 and older are fully vaccinated. It's actually imminent, as we can see from Quebec data as of Sep 4.

Quebec and Manitoba are actually very similar, except among people 50-59, where MB is slower than QC.

These very different provinces should serve as examples of where the rest of us could be if we prioritized vaccination of older people.

First, people 80+:

>99% of people in this age groups have already been vaccinated (MB), or will be by Oct 2, 2021--2-3 weeks from now (QC).

The rest of the country won't reach >99% vaccination among people 80+ until August, 2022 (not a typo).

People 70-79:

>99% of people in this age group will be fully vaccinated by Oct 2, 2021 in both MB and QC--2-3 weeks from now.

The rest of the country won't reach >99% vaccination among people 70-79 until February, 2022.

People 60-69:

>99% of people in this age group will be fully vaccinated by Nov 27, 2021 in QC and Dec 25, 2021 in MB.

Canada will reach >99% vaccination among people 60-69 in February, 2022.

People 50-59:

>99% of people in this age group will be fully vaccinated by Dec 25, 2021 in QC and February, 2022 in MB.

Canada will reach >99% vaccination among people 50-59 in April, 2022.

These are estimates, based on vaccination rates from Aug 28-Sep 4. They're not perfect by any means. But they reveal a stark difference in provincial priorities in age groups where a lot of people will die if their vaccination is not prioritized.

It IS possible for other Canadian regions to be like Quebec and Manitoba (and the Atlantic provinces, which are also doing well, even if I haven't talked about them individually).

I know everyone is frustrated and angry (so am I), but we need to divert some of that anger and use it to advocate for much, much faster vaccination of the most vulnerable age groups in those provinces that have not done this well enough.

We KNOW it's possible, despite anti-vax.

I really have to focus on my work deadline now, but I'm providing a link to the spreadsheet where I've done the calculations to obtain the numbers I provided here, as well as the estimates of vaccine-preventable deaths in Canada in the coming months.

With this spreadsheet you can explore the data for your region for yourself. It's a big spreadsheet, but the formulas in each cell will help lead you back to the source data I used for the calculations.

I updated it on Friday, with @GovCanHealth data current to Sep 4, 2021.

@GovCanHealth Here's the spreadsheet: utoronto-my.sharepoint.com/:x:/g/personal…

You can find the summary data (easiest to digest) on the tab "Dates pops reach 95%".

The source data are imported into the analysis template on the tab "Vax speed age gender regions".

Source data are from here: health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vacci…

The tab "Ranked risk death by region" provides a ranked (highest to lowest) list of populations with the greatest per capita risk of death from COVID-19 due to hesitancy (hesitancy data for Jan-Apr released by @StatCan_eng in July here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.…

The tab "Projected 50+ deaths mapped" shows deaths/100K expected in each region (and local health units in) based on current vax rates and speed of vaccination in people 50 and older.

These are the regions that are/will experience the greatest healthcare disruption and death.

Everyone in Canada should be able to access these data. They show we're facing a complex problem that can't be reduced to saying people who aren't vaccinated are vaccine-refusers or anti-vaxxers.

Always keep Quebec and Manitoba in mind. If they can do it, so can the rest of us.

COVID-19 vaccination has likely saved the lives of about 425,000 people living in Canada (check the "Lives saved" tab on the spreadsheet).

We have about 39,000 lives left to save (cell K111 on "Vax speed age gender region" tab).

Vaccination can still save the lives of:

20 people 12-17 years old
190 people 18-29
560 people 30-39
1,300 people 40-49
4,000 people 50-59
7,000 people 60-69
8,200 people 70-79
18,000 people 80+

Let's focus on them. Every single week we do this will save lives.

Think about this:

You only have to help 7 unvaxxed people 80 and older get vaxxed to save 1 life. A life.

If you help 23 people 70-79 get vaxxed you can save 1 life.

If you help 78 people 60-69 get vaxxed you can save 1 life.

Start with people you can help most.

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1437164998007169025?s=20