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21 Sep, 4 tweets, 1 min read
So...New normal, what does that look like? Have "we" made the best possible use of our excellent vaccines to minimise the impact of COVID in 2021...
I'm not a statto, this is just me gazing at the DHSC dashboard...
Compared to January peak:
1. Cases ~50%
2. Hospitalisations ~25%
3. Patients in hospital ~25%
4. Patients on ventilators ~25%
5. Deaths ~10%
Also, and this is inferred...
6. Long COVID incidence unchanged
7. NHS had no summer respite, staff exhausted and demoralised.
8. Lack of mitigations means flu, RSV, rhinovirus etc will join us shortly...
9. The average age of those severely unwell has come down due to vaccine, every silver lining has a cloud...
10. BUT, great to see 16/17 yo incidence reducing due to vax...it's almost like if we'd done it over summer we'd be WAY better off...🤔

So my question, given vax is very
effective vs severe disease/hospitalisations (~90%, depending on multiple factors, incl the virus!) pretty good vs transmission (50-70% reduced risk), we've ordered >0.5 bn doses, and MHRA has approved it...is this really good enough @BorisJohnson ?
Answers on a postcard folks...

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More from @SGriffin_Lab

Stephen Griffin Profile picture
23 Sep
All this debate around schools and kids getting exposed to SARS2 needlessly is exhausting. But it's got me thinking...

It strikes me that there's a similar feel to the "kids don't get sick" thing (or at least not TOO many as to make those graphs we're all sick of shoot up too
quickly, or too much to make folks feel guilty..."'cos I've never known anyone die of COVID and my mate was fine")...sorry, I digress...
Yes, the sick kids, or not, reminds me of the "it's only the old folks, or the vulnerable, or the ones that don't look after themselves wot die
" brigade...
Now, huge apologies for the stereotypes, but much as I feel incredibly strongly that the lives of the people I've just described are just as important as everyone else...and, by the way may have a far tougher existence than many of us could EVER understand, I worry
Read 17 tweets
Stephen Griffin Profile picture
29 Aug
Right, so the most frightening aspect of this excellent piece from @d_spiegel is the increasing numbers of pregnant/recently pregnant women, with disproportionate numbers from minority ethnic groups, being treated in ICU for COVID.

Why is this happening?

amp.theguardian.com/theobserver/co…
Well, it may be complicated, but I strongly suspect that the poisonous, insidious and completely untrue rumours spread by horrendous anti-vax morons including Michael (racist, amongst other things) Yeadon have played a massive role here...

Whenever I engage on vax hesitancy, I
hear genuinely concerned young women reluctant to get the jab because they're worried by the 💩 that people like Yeadon have spread. Who can blame them? People like Yeadon use their past credentials (however much their present actions/views completely invalidate them) and a blend
Read 19 tweets
Stephen Griffin Profile picture
21 Aug
No, absolutely not.
Whilst this model may conceivably apply in the future, in my view this ignores some key issues.

1. This is a novel virus and we don't understand it yet.
2. Long COVID is HUGE

BBC News - Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?
bbc.co.uk/news/health-58…
3. We know infection, even in vaccinees can leave tissues damaged. We don't understand this yet either.
4. We aren't used to dealing with virus pandemics, where the sheer scale of infection can mean things are different to the endemic viruses we are used to.
5. This is hugely
important because we appear to still be at the start of several possible trajectories for SARS2 evolution. This is explained brilliantly here by folks far better qualified than I...

sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/n…
Read 16 tweets
Stephen Griffin Profile picture
1 Aug
Much has been made of the following SAGE document, which has been reported in the media with a focus on some of the worst case scenarios within it. It has also been dismissed by some scientific commentators...notably not virologists.

Some thoughts...

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1. Clearly, this is not a press release! It is obviously a response to a broad-ranging brief designed to cover as many scenarios as possible. I'm genuinely surprised it has been released in this format.
2. Some suggest that this report is intended to stoke fear, I disagree.
As above, this has clearly been written to address a specific brief. There's nothing scientifically inaccurate in there whatsoever, each supposition is backed up by plausible rationale. However, whether something might happen, or will happen is usually a combination of humans and
Read 33 tweets
Stephen Griffin Profile picture
17 Jul
This needs urgent resolution and I am obviously in favour of vaccinating kids. A reminder of why:

1. Kids are not invulnerable to COVID. We saw record paediatric admissions this week. See threads from @jneill and @ProfColinDavis

2. #LongCovidKids

theguardian.com/world/2021/jul…
3. We are already at high levels of infection, this is set to go much higher. Even a small % of a massive number is...a BIG number.

4. Vaccines are MHRA approved for 12+ in the UK. Trials support they are incredibly efficacious and SAFE.

5. Other countries are, successfully.
6. Whether they begin or propagate outbreaks/transmission, schools are a big problem and current bubbles are too big, causing immense disruption, especially since masks were arbitrarily dropped. Ignoring infection is plain stupid, so...let's prevent it!

7. Some have suggested
Read 11 tweets
Stephen Griffin Profile picture
8 Jul
Strikes me that some may think taking a stand against the mass infection policy and freedom day means that I lack faith in our excellent vaccines and, apparently, am a "lockdown zealot".
I'd like to reassure everyone who knows/follows me or sees this at random that this is untrue
This sort of polarisation of debate is all too common on twitter, and is sadly churned up and propagated by certain cynical characters combined with consecutive failures in pandemic policy. It's in no way black and white, but the main thing is that we ALL want an end to this...
So, in an attempt to collect my thoughts, I've followed advice from @lucy_prodgers and FINALLY written a list...🤪

1. First, we have some AMAZING vaccines, developed by scientists and companies, importantly WITH govt backing, with efficacy and safety proven by trials and real
Read 24 tweets

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