All this debate around schools and kids getting exposed to SARS2 needlessly is exhausting. But it's got me thinking...

It strikes me that there's a similar feel to the "kids don't get sick" thing (or at least not TOO many as to make those graphs we're all sick of shoot up too
quickly, or too much to make folks feel guilty..."'cos I've never known anyone die of COVID and my mate was fine")...sorry, I digress...
Yes, the sick kids, or not, reminds me of the "it's only the old folks, or the vulnerable, or the ones that don't look after themselves wot die
" brigade...
Now, huge apologies for the stereotypes, but much as I feel incredibly strongly that the lives of the people I've just described are just as important as everyone else...and, by the way may have a far tougher existence than many of us could EVER understand, I worry
too that the "small" numbers of kids that get ill are just becoming dots on a graph.
The tragedy of children dying or being seriously unwell, possibly for long periods, for me anyway, is the fact that they're deprived of the life they could, and let's face it should now have...
Childhood vaccines and other early years care has ensured that the vast majority of us will never thankfully have to experience the terrible loss of a child, or their health. But a silent minority do, and this has to be pain beyond all imagination to bear.
So, I'm going to be a
complete hypocrite and say that we perhaps should apply the precautionary principle all the more so to the kids. I had a painful taste of the prospect of losing my son, now 4, when he was a baby thanks to meningitis, but he, and so we all, were lucky.
I could rattle off graphs,
or numbers, but others do it far better than me anyway! But to be brief, the sheer scale of infection in our younger children means we ARE seeing kids in hospital, and sadly some HAVE died of this awful disease, with many more suffering long term problems - I won't accept recent
comments on this being "overblown", ridiculous.
Of course, nobody would EVER dream of giving their kids anything that could make them unwell, even slightly, but I feel strongly, as a parent, that I find the myocarditis risk far more palatable than COVID...both are small, of
course, in terms of risk, but risk x hazard is what I think we need to consider here...
As a virologist, I freely admit that it's impossible to keep up with the SARS2 research published continuously, much of it truly amazing, but I AM certain that we're still only scratching the
surface. I would not want to try and guess, or I suppose as I scientist I should say "predict" how this will go...I AM certain there are more surprises to come though...
Please don't take all this as me not having faith in vaccines, far from it, and I'd jab my 4 yo tomorrow if I
was allowed. But the simple fact is that we seem to have taken a gargantuan backwards step in our attitudes to this virus, thinking the vaccines are a silver bullet...which they never are. This isn't the fault of Joe public, it's a consequence of policy. I understand completely
the desire to get back to normal, but is that really ever going to be possible if we're looking over our shoulder?
I know many disagree with me, and that's fine of course. But I'd say to everyone that if there's even a tiny chance that kids can come to harm that we CAN prevent,
why on earth would any sane person not do it? We have carseats for kids, we keep them away from live wires, we used to show them the Charlie Says films, all because they're so very precious.
The fact that many concerned parents are over a barrel and have no choice sending kids
to schools that have, in a matter of weeks changed from reassuring, secure (as they could be) places to some weird dystopian scenario where everyone just carries on and ignores the wolves at the door, is just astounding.
I'm encouraged to hear that many schools are taking action
themselves, against DfE "guidance", or lack thereof, but all the more dismayed by LEAs threatening parents that isolate close contacts altruistically, an action that was a legal requirement just a few weeks ago.
So, what on earth has all this been, other than me avoiding writing
a manuscript this evening? I'm not really sure, other than to say I feel fit to burst with frustration at the lack of precautionary measures now in place to safeguard our kids. Please remember families have vulnerable members, and kids aren't invincible. Please @nadhimzahawi
change this callous strategy that Prof Whitty admits will result in most of our kids being infected.
If I have to wear PPE and work on this beasty in a sealed glove box in a BSL3, how on earth can you dole it out along with the school dinners?

Right, apologies for the ramble...

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More from @SGriffin_Lab

21 Sep
So...New normal, what does that look like? Have "we" made the best possible use of our excellent vaccines to minimise the impact of COVID in 2021...
I'm not a statto, this is just me gazing at the DHSC dashboard...
Compared to January peak:
1. Cases ~50%
2. Hospitalisations ~25%
3. Patients in hospital ~25%
4. Patients on ventilators ~25%
5. Deaths ~10%
Also, and this is inferred...
6. Long COVID incidence unchanged
7. NHS had no summer respite, staff exhausted and demoralised.
8. Lack of mitigations means flu, RSV, rhinovirus etc will join us shortly...
9. The average age of those severely unwell has come down due to vaccine, every silver lining has a cloud...
10. BUT, great to see 16/17 yo incidence reducing due to vax...it's almost like if we'd done it over summer we'd be WAY better off...🤔

So my question, given vax is very
Read 4 tweets
29 Aug
Right, so the most frightening aspect of this excellent piece from @d_spiegel is the increasing numbers of pregnant/recently pregnant women, with disproportionate numbers from minority ethnic groups, being treated in ICU for COVID.

Why is this happening?

amp.theguardian.com/theobserver/co…
Well, it may be complicated, but I strongly suspect that the poisonous, insidious and completely untrue rumours spread by horrendous anti-vax morons including Michael (racist, amongst other things) Yeadon have played a massive role here...

Whenever I engage on vax hesitancy, I
hear genuinely concerned young women reluctant to get the jab because they're worried by the 💩 that people like Yeadon have spread. Who can blame them? People like Yeadon use their past credentials (however much their present actions/views completely invalidate them) and a blend
Read 19 tweets
21 Aug
No, absolutely not.
Whilst this model may conceivably apply in the future, in my view this ignores some key issues.

1. This is a novel virus and we don't understand it yet.
2. Long COVID is HUGE

BBC News - Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?
bbc.co.uk/news/health-58…
3. We know infection, even in vaccinees can leave tissues damaged. We don't understand this yet either.
4. We aren't used to dealing with virus pandemics, where the sheer scale of infection can mean things are different to the endemic viruses we are used to.
5. This is hugely
important because we appear to still be at the start of several possible trajectories for SARS2 evolution. This is explained brilliantly here by folks far better qualified than I...

sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/n…
Read 16 tweets
1 Aug
Much has been made of the following SAGE document, which has been reported in the media with a focus on some of the worst case scenarios within it. It has also been dismissed by some scientific commentators...notably not virologists.

Some thoughts...

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1. Clearly, this is not a press release! It is obviously a response to a broad-ranging brief designed to cover as many scenarios as possible. I'm genuinely surprised it has been released in this format.
2. Some suggest that this report is intended to stoke fear, I disagree.
As above, this has clearly been written to address a specific brief. There's nothing scientifically inaccurate in there whatsoever, each supposition is backed up by plausible rationale. However, whether something might happen, or will happen is usually a combination of humans and
Read 33 tweets
17 Jul
This needs urgent resolution and I am obviously in favour of vaccinating kids. A reminder of why:

1. Kids are not invulnerable to COVID. We saw record paediatric admissions this week. See threads from @jneill and @ProfColinDavis

2. #LongCovidKids

theguardian.com/world/2021/jul…
3. We are already at high levels of infection, this is set to go much higher. Even a small % of a massive number is...a BIG number.

4. Vaccines are MHRA approved for 12+ in the UK. Trials support they are incredibly efficacious and SAFE.

5. Other countries are, successfully.
6. Whether they begin or propagate outbreaks/transmission, schools are a big problem and current bubbles are too big, causing immense disruption, especially since masks were arbitrarily dropped. Ignoring infection is plain stupid, so...let's prevent it!

7. Some have suggested
Read 11 tweets
8 Jul
Strikes me that some may think taking a stand against the mass infection policy and freedom day means that I lack faith in our excellent vaccines and, apparently, am a "lockdown zealot".
I'd like to reassure everyone who knows/follows me or sees this at random that this is untrue
This sort of polarisation of debate is all too common on twitter, and is sadly churned up and propagated by certain cynical characters combined with consecutive failures in pandemic policy. It's in no way black and white, but the main thing is that we ALL want an end to this...
So, in an attempt to collect my thoughts, I've followed advice from @lucy_prodgers and FINALLY written a list...🤪

1. First, we have some AMAZING vaccines, developed by scientists and companies, importantly WITH govt backing, with efficacy and safety proven by trials and real
Read 24 tweets

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