1/ "It's a one-off"- Tanker market
Even after a few busy days, the VLCC TD3 FFA curve is still at depressed levels.
Spot rates (non-scrubber): $0/d
Q4: $12k/d
Cal 22 $16k/d
Cal 23 $24k/d
"There are too many ships and not enough cargo"
$FRO $DHT #Tankergang
Even after a few busy days, the VLCC TD3 FFA curve is still at depressed levels.
Spot rates (non-scrubber): $0/d
Q4: $12k/d
Cal 22 $16k/d
Cal 23 $24k/d
"There are too many ships and not enough cargo"
$FRO $DHT #Tankergang
2/
If you look at the current state of the market, this might be true, but shipping is all about optionality.
Bull markets are more often than not triggered by an event. Once it's over, all the analyst, traders and brokers will say: " The rally was due to a one-off event"
If you look at the current state of the market, this might be true, but shipping is all about optionality.
Bull markets are more often than not triggered by an event. Once it's over, all the analyst, traders and brokers will say: " The rally was due to a one-off event"
3/
What they fail to see is that "one-off" events are a part of the market. Future unknown "one-off" events is the same as optionality!
The specific situation might be a "one-off", but the fact that situations occur which affect markets is anything but a "one-off".
What they fail to see is that "one-off" events are a part of the market. Future unknown "one-off" events is the same as optionality!
The specific situation might be a "one-off", but the fact that situations occur which affect markets is anything but a "one-off".
4/
-2015: Price war Saudi vs Shale.
-2019: Scrubber install
-2019: Cosco ban
-2020: Price war Saudi vs Russia, contango that lead to storage (covid).
-2021 Ever Given blocking Suez Canal.
We can see similar "one-off" events in drybulk, containers, LPG, LNG.
-2015: Price war Saudi vs Shale.
-2019: Scrubber install
-2019: Cosco ban
-2020: Price war Saudi vs Russia, contango that lead to storage (covid).
-2021 Ever Given blocking Suez Canal.
We can see similar "one-off" events in drybulk, containers, LPG, LNG.
5/
So what's my point?
Investing in shipping is all about being in position to benefit from insane optionality.
If you are a seller of VLCC Q4 @ $12k/d, I would not be surprised if a "one-off" event comes along and smacks you in the face.
So what's my point?
Investing in shipping is all about being in position to benefit from insane optionality.
If you are a seller of VLCC Q4 @ $12k/d, I would not be surprised if a "one-off" event comes along and smacks you in the face.
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