Stunning new estimates suggest that the 400 wealthiest American families paid an average Federal tax rate of only 8.2%. whitehouse.gov/cea/blog/2021/…
Here’s why:
1. The rich rely on investment income, which is taxed at lower rates than labor income.
2. They pay no income tax on a big chunk of their investment income. (This is the “stepped up basis” loophole.)
This new estimate does something quite important: It analyzes a measure of income that includes unrealized capital gains. The rich earn a lot of this income, but because it’s difficult to calculate, few estimates of tax rates include it.
Obvious implication: If past studies understated the income of the rich, they overstated the income tax *rates* the rich pay.
The analysis calculates average tax rates for the rich over the period 2010-18. This lower federal income tax rate is not a one-year anomaly, but a persistent result of the loopholes built into U.S. tax law.
While this analysis comes from the White House, it’s written by two of the leading tax scholars of their generation. It’s serious stuff. You might quibble with specific details, but it’s not going to change the big picture that the very rich face very low federal income tax rates
I see the old "but unrealized gains aren't income" crowd in my mentions. Let's follow that logic: If my employer pays my wage as stock rather than in $US, is it logical/fair/efficient to not count that as income? Or do we think it's a valuable asset, and hence counts as income?

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Justin Wolfers

Justin Wolfers Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JustinWolfers

15 Sep
The vax mandate solves a collective action problem:

Businesses want to vax their staff to provide a safe workplace. But they’re each worried that if they move first, they’ll lose staff to their rivals (who probably also want vaxxed staff). Mandating the vax solves this problem.
Point is in many industries all of the major players want fully vaccinated staff, but none wants to bear the political heat of announcing this first. Result: None of them require it even if all of ‘em want to.

The mandate solves the problem of waiting for a first mover to emerge
The vax mandate only applies to large employers, and so may be a competitive advantage for large companies, because customers know they’ll be safe there. Small businesses who do have vaccinated staff need a way to signal that they’re just as safe.
Read 6 tweets
10 Sep
Viewing Biden's vaccine mandate as simply economic policy, it's surely the cheapest and most powerful economic stimulus ever enacted.
Lemme explain: Covid is a tax -- a tax on all in-person interactions, paid not with dollars but with lives. Vaccinations are a tax cut, and your shot cuts both your your covid tax, and your neighbors taxes, too. More jabs = a bigger tax cut, which will boost the service sector.
The reason that cutting the covid tax is such a cheap stimulus, is that this is one of the few tax cuts that doesn't actually reduce government revenue. Indeed, it probably boosts revenue: People are more likely to work when they feel safe, which boosts the government coffers.
Read 5 tweets
17 Aug
This @DataColada finding of outright data fabrication in a high profile study is really a holy shit moment, and I hope that all social scientists pay attention, and not just psych.
datacolada.org/98
Three of the authors have given quite useful responses describing their roles and what they know. The fourth is notable for what it doesn't say.
Mazar: datacolada.org/storage_strong…
Gino: datacolada.org/storage_strong…
Bazerman: datacolada.org/storage_strong…
Ariely: datacolada.org/storage_strong…
Also, the original blog post is just a lovely example of forensic analysis. Well worth reading just to learn from such a clear and fair statistical prosecution.
Read 4 tweets
6 Aug
BOOM! Payrolls growth of +943k in July, and unemployment down from 5.9% to 5.4%, and that's what a robust jobs report looks like.
Pretty helpful revisions add another +119k to May/June.
Volatility is a thing, so better to focus on the three month average of jobs gains running at +801k per month, which is pretty great, but also pretty necessary given the depth of the hole we're in.
Household survey shows employment grew +1,043k in July, roughly confirming the payrolls numbers.

Unemployment fell a lot because more people got jobs. Participation actually rose a tick (though it has further to go).
Read 11 tweets
7 May
U.S. payrolls grew by +266k, which would be fabulous in normal times, but is utterly disappointing at a moment in which forecasters expected +1 million jobs, and we’re still missing millions of pre-pandemic jobs.

This is a big miss that changes how we think about the recovery.
Unemployment is stuck at 6.1%, well above the pre-pandemic rate of 3.5%, and that’s despite the fact that millions are still not looking for work.
We are still 8 million jobs below pre-pandemic levels, or about 10 million jobs below where we would have been if pre-covid trends had continued. That’s why we need much faster job growth.

There are millions in need, an economy that remains sick, and a recovery that’s ailing.
Read 8 tweets
8 Jan
In December the U.S. economy lost -140,000 jobs, and THE RECOVERY HAS STALLED JUST LIKE I WARNED.

We lost 22 million jobs in Feb & March, then regained half of them, and now we've stalled, with the economy in a deeper jobs hole than the darkest days after the financial crisis.
The glimmer of good news here (and it's only a glimmer) is that October and November were stronger than we thought, and revisions added +135k to those months.
But there's no way around the depressing fact that the economy is in a hole as deep or deeper than anything following the financial crisis, the mechanical bounceback is behind us, and further progress has stalled.
Read 13 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(