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Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
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23 Sep, 10 tweets, 3 min read
Mdr, Mélenchon qui passe de la créolisation à Christine de Pisan, qu'est-ce que c'est que ce débat ?
Ça me fait rire de les entendre se vouvoyer alors que tout le monde sait très bien qu'ils sont copains comme cochons.
Il fout décidément cette histoire de créolisation à toutes les sauces. Il doit vraiment avoir envie de faire 6%.
Le chiffre de 260 000 agressions par jour cité par le "fact-checking" de BFM ne concerne que les violences enregistrées par la police et la gendarmerie (premier graphique), mais l'enquête Cadre de vie et sécurité (deuxième graphique) montre qu'en réalité il y en a beaucoup plus.
J'ajoute que le second graphique ne compte même pas les vols avec violence ou les agressions sexuelles. Certes, il s'agit du nombre de victimes et pas du nombre d'agressions, mais même en supposant 2 victimes par agressions ça fait nettement plus que le chiffre de BFM.
Il est bien évident que la police et la gendarmerie n'enregistrent qu'une fraction des crimes et délits commis chaque année, donc c'est idiot d'utiliser cette source. Voir vie-publique.fr/sites/default/… et interieur.gouv.fr/content/downlo… pour la source des graphiques.
Sur l'escroquerie consistant à agréger immigrés et non-immigrés dans le solde migratoire : les gens qui partent sont principalement des non-immigrés et ceux qui restent des immigrés 🤷‍♂️
Le taux de natalité en Hongrie n'est évidemment pas le plus bas d'Europe et il est même légèrement supérieur à la moyenne de l'UE. (Légèrement en dessous si on regarde l'indice conjoncturel de fécondité.) Dommage que Zemmour ne l'ait pas relevé. data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.D…
D'après Mélenchon, si on ne fait rien pour lutter contre le réchauffement climatique, Bordeaux sera sous l'eau d'ici 2050 🙃 Au rythme où il se convertit à l'écologie, dans 6 mois, il nous dira que c'est Annecy qui sera sous l'eau d'ici 2050 si on ne fait rien 😂
Je voulais évidemment dire par an et non pas par jour.

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Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
22 Sep
Those results highlights a problem with the "vaccine efficacy" metric, which is that it decreases with exposure, even when exposure is the same for vaccinated and unvaccinated people. So the exact same vaccine will come out as more or less "effective" in different contexts.
Suppose that conditional on exposure the probability that a vaccinated person gets infected is 5% and that it's 50% for unvaccinated people. Now consider a group of 200 people, half of whom are vaccinated and the other half are not.
In that case, you would expect 50 people in the unvaccinated group and 5 people in the vaccinated group to get infected, which puts vaccine efficacy at (50 - 5) / 50 = 90%. Sounds pretty good!
Read 16 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
20 Sep
I think the conflict with China is stupid and I'd be glad if we stayed out of it, so I don't care that France was excluded from the regional security partnership between the US and Australia, what pisses me off is that this betrayal won't fundamentally affect our foreign policy.
That's why the French government's histrionics at the moment are so embarrassing. There is no point in putting on that show if, in the end, you just go back to business as usual, which is almost certainly what's going to happen. Draw some concrete lessons or shut the fuck up.
The truth is that we have aligned ourselves with the US against our interests time and time again and we're going to continue to do so even after our so-called allies have openly fucked us. I hope that I'm being too pessimistic about this, but I seriously doubt it.
Read 8 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
17 Sep
I must have missed the part where Russia pretended to be our ally, only to snatch a multi-billion dollars contract that was already signed from us and exclude us from the new regional security partnership that resulted from the steal, but it could also be that I have a brain 🤷‍♂️
People actually pay this guy, probably a lot, to explain international politics to them. No wonder we keep doing stupid shit when this is the kind of moron that passes as an "expert" these days.
Lmao, the sophisticates spent the entire Trump's presidency whining about how he was destroying the US relationship with your allies, but now Biden is openly fucking us and this guy is like "how come you didn't recall your ambassador under Orange Man Bad?"
Read 4 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
14 Sep
Milley's actions, which objectively border on treason, are cast in a heroic light in this piece, but this passage is pretty revealing about the kind of things he and his friends were *really* afraid of, even though I have no doubt they believe their own bullshit.
From day 1, the military has railroaded Trump into doing the opposite of what he'd pledged to do (greatly helped in that by Trump's own incompetence), effectively subverting the democratic will, but we're supposed to believe they're democracy's saviors 🙃 axios.com/off-the-rails-…
Every time Trump tried to withdraw using the normal channels, they have managed to railroad him (which again is partly Trump's fault but has happened to every other president so it's not just his incompetence), but Milley is shocked when Trump tries to do it behind his back 😂
Read 19 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
9 Sep
C'est encore pire que ça : non seulement cette affaire n'entraînera aucune conséquence négative pour Coulmont et Simon, mais vous pouvez être certain que la même chose ne sera pas vraie pour Mignot, qui sera à coup sûr ostracisé par ses collègues. C'est effectivement révoltant.
Cette histoire illustre parfaitement un phénomène très courant dans la recherche : il y a plein de gens dont tout le monde sait pertinemment qu'ils sont intellectuellement malhonnêtes, mais leurs collègues ne disent rien parce que faire des vagues est mauvais pour leur carrière.
C'est d'ailleurs la même chose quand je traite les épidémiologistes de l'Inserm et de l'Institut Pasteur d'escrocs parce qu'ils ne publient pas leur code et qu'ils pondent des trucs dont ils savent très bien qu'ils sont complètement pétés : "ça ne se fait pas" me dit-on.
Read 9 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
7 Sep
Has anyone ever considered genetically engineering SARS-CoV-2 to make it super-transmissible but harmless, while still having enough epitopes in common with the natural strains to confer immunity against them? It would effectively be a transmissible vaccine.
To be clear, I doubt we'd actually know how to make it super-transmissible and I can think of many reasons why this could backfire even if we did, it's just a random thought I had so I tweeted it, like I do with most of my random thoughts 🤷‍♂️
Looking forward to having my name in history books for having inspired the program that killed half of mankind by creating a super-transmissible virus that almost immediately mutated to also become super-virulent.
Read 6 tweets

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