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13 Feb, 5 tweets, 1 min read
looking at my 25 startups investments in 2019-20, the two best performing consumer social co’s are literally just built on top of slack and WhatsApp. The founders created for a new format that was underserved, moved quick building, and gradually built their own app over time.
tbt to this tweet, thank you to all the awesome people and founders I connected with over this!
this deep dive on PDD was also critical and connected me with so many awesome people building similar co’s all around the world

turner.substack.com/p/pinduoduo-an…
shoot, there’s actually three built almost entirely for Slack that are crushing it right now 💪 🚀 🚀 🚀
also this was not a dispo subtweet. Just reflecting.

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More from @TurnerNovak

Turner Novak Profile picture
6 Feb
Quick thoughts + charts on $SNAP Q4 earnings
For the first time ever, Snap's largest user base is now Rest of World, or users outside North America and Europe
Snap's NorthAm / EU user growth held steady in the 8-12% range the past year, RoW continues accelerating. Wouldn't be surprised if total userbase exceeds 1 billion within five years.
Read 10 tweets
Turner Novak Profile picture
25 Jan
For everyone asking, current positioning:

Cash 18.4%
SNAP 27.1%
GME 12.0%
PDD 8.2%
SNAP Calls 7.2%
SFIX 6.5%
DIS 6.2%
SQ 5.9%
TWLO 4.7%
UBER 2.0%
SHOP 1.9%

Sold all my GME calls on the 22nd. Dumb luck easing into the stock on the 11th + 12th. Going to start trimming it today.
I also took 2x profits off the table on the FUBO puts, sold the rest at a loss a week later. This is why I very rarely short 😂
Trimming GME because we're nearing $10b in EV, which I thought was the low probability bull case by end of 2021
Read 5 tweets
Turner Novak Profile picture
16 Nov 20
Pinduoduo recently launched Duo Duo Maicai, which lets customers pick-up online orders from local shops. It was all analysts talked about on its Q3 earnings call last week and its stock jumped 30% the following two days.

Quick thread:
A pick-up ecommerce model pools multiple last mile delivery legs into one trip. 20 orders becomes just one delivery.

This lowers logistics costs significantly, which unlocks ecommerce for lower priced products, new behaviors, and makes it more accessible for low income consumers
A pick-up model also drives foot traffic to local shops. It's not a stretch to think one day we'll will bid on ecommerce pick-up traffic like digital ads.

An ad network like Pinduoduo's spanning manufacturers, consumer app, and in-person trips will likely be very, very valuable.
Read 6 tweets
Turner Novak Profile picture
22 Aug 20
Stitch Fix is likely a $100b company within 10 years. Quick thread:
Stitch Fix owns a direct channel to recommend and ship products to 3.5m users (growing 20%/yr). Many are caught up in Pinduoduo’s "social commerce" model, but the real beauty is its ability to directly influence demand and thus optimize its operations and supply chain accordingly
Due to its understanding of exactly what customers want (aka what they will purchase) and direct influence over customer demand, Stitch Fix can essentially sell whatever products are best for its business*

*caveat that this should always align with what’s best for the customer
Read 13 tweets
Turner Novak Profile picture
22 Jul 20
Snap Q2 earnings:

- 239m DAUs, up 10m in Q2 (4% QoQ, 18% YoY)
- $1.9b TTM revenue, Q2 up 17% YoY (32% thru July 19th)
- Implied 4.7b snaps sent per day, 20 per user (highest ever, growing 2x faster than DAUs)
- Time watching Snap Shows and AR playtime growing 2x faster than rev
Snap Q2 usage metrics:

- DAU’s open 30x per day (up from 25 in Q3 ‘18)
- DAU growth smooth every month in Q2
- Android rebuild in 2019 drove 37% You RoW DAU growth
- India users up 100% YoY
- Thinks Snapchat's user opportunity is 2b (at 239m DAU's today)
Snap Q2 product reach:

Users engaging with AR: 188m DAU’s
Discover: 100m MAU’s (probably much higher)
Snap Map: 200m MAU's
Snap Games: 100m unique players
Snap Kit: 150m MAU's
Read 16 tweets
Turner Novak Profile picture
20 Jul 20
The first batch of Snap Minis launched today. This is an early step in Snap's app ecosystem that will help almost every company that uses the internet to acquire and retain customers.

Quick thread:

mashable.com/article/snap-m…
If you're unfamiliar, Snapchat is used by over 88 million people in North America per day. The total time spent in the app by all Snapchat users in the US is nearly identical to Instagram.

👀The US is where IG, valued at ~$200 billion, makes most of its money
Initially, Snap Minis are access through the chat as seen in these pics ImageImageImageImage
Read 9 tweets

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