If I had to take a crack at the Senate map for next year, this is probably what I think my ratings are *at the moment*. Could argue with some of these, but largely just depends on the national environment.
Also: lean is not safe. Not saying Dems can't win WI or Rs can't win NH.
Also: lean is not safe. Not saying Dems can't win WI or Rs can't win NH.
Wisconsin's low vaccination rates give me a lot of pause. Can Barnes stop the driftless from sliding to the right? I don't think so. Can he make enough inroads in Milwaukee's suburbs to counter it? Maybe, but it won't be easy.
North Carolina: if Rs nominate McCrory to go against Beasley, this could end up being a tougher play than the GOP would like and I can see an argument for Ds being favored given that Beasley can drive up Black turnout strongly while maintaining decent margins with educated whites
this is dropped at 1 AM on the west coast for two reasons -- the first is that I'm doing actual work and have a small interlude, and the second is that it's less likely to kickstart a debate if you drop it late at night 😅
anyways just remember that the difference between lean D and lean R on this map is way less than the difference between lean R and safe so please don't think I'm saying that the party not favored *cannot* win, because that's not at all what this says.
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