This is also one of the more conservative estimates of the college-educated electorate share -- McAuliffe wins college voters by 22 points (similar to what Biden did) but WaPo's LV screen says the share of college voters *drops* by a few points from 2020. Bit skeptical of that.
https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1438990241600315394
If anything, I'd have thought the enthusiasm gap would have been shown more in intra-group turnout differential (e.g. college Rs are more likely to turn out than college Dems), but that's not happening in this poll at all!! It's basically a weird electorate screen.
McAuliffe is winning college voters by a greater margin than Biden did. So it's a bit strange to see, then, that the delta between non-college and college voters is *higher* than it was in 2020, and it cuts counter to most of what we already know re: turnout, hence my skepticism.
Most polls of #VAGov have a 50/50 split or something close to it for college voters. So I think this one might be a bit conservative. But whatever the case, we're going to put it into the model (D+7.3 now, because the poll, projected on our electorate screen, is ~D+8.5).
for all the folks saying "stop crosstab diving! just put it in the average"...yes, thank you, the average is 50% of our model and we already did put it into that, but the other 50% literally relies on crosstab and fundamental data so we *can't* ignore it.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
