Narrativa española:
"Obtener buenas rentabilidades con la renta fija es imposible", "La renta fija es fija", "clase de inversión para personas mayores", "Con los tipos actuales está garantizado perder dinero"

Realidad:
Nuestra inversión en renta fija +93% vs -9% la acción y +51%
Mañana nos amortizan el bono que compramos el año pasado generando una rentabilidad total del 93% incluyendo cupones. Destacar la diferencia entre el comportamiento de la acción en el mismo periodo (-9%). Analizamos las compañías y decidimos en que estructura tomar la posición
+93% en año y poco superando el +51% del S&P 500. ¿Mucho riesgo? Incorrecto! El papel esta colateralizado con una serie de tankers cuya valoración minimizaba el riesgo. Si la compañía no pagaba, el administrador liquidaba los activos rápidamente y recuperábamos nuestra inversión
Es momento de ampliar el conocimiento del inversor español en este campo que es el pilar de la estrategia del fondo Gamma Global.
Imprescindible ver la charla de @dantelriv en @Rankia con papel y boli para iniciarse en este mundo. A tus pies Dani!

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More from @gabcasla

25 Sep
Great update from @agbrief on Nagacorp $3918. The chairman confirms NagaWorld is reopening! Cambodia plans to ease tourism restrictions from Nov. Management told us Naga will make $30M EBITDA/month very soon (3.5bn market cap). Exciting times coming!

agbrief.com/intelligence/f…
While VIP market will take a while to come back, we are super bullish on mass market prospects. We saw almost a full recovery early this year thanks to the influx of foreign capital and expatriates into Cambodia, especially its capital Phnom Penh. 1Q20 was all time high profits! Image
Mass market recovery will support much higher valuation. Amazing business (unique and well protected by a monopolistic license) with superb returns. Great company to play Asia gaming trend. The low cost, low tax advantages offer greater value for money to players
Read 4 tweets
7 Sep
Nagacorp (3918 HK) is up 16% today but still 50% below its pre-Covid levels and 37% below Feb 21. Would you like to go back to March 2020 and buy high-quality assets at bargain prices? Then, this is your opportunity!

Summarized investment thesis:
slideshare.net/GabrielCastroC…
Credit to @GlobalStockPick who brought me the idea last year. You can find more info in his blog!
First time I heard about being the owner of a casino in Cambodia I fully rejected the idea as we're super conservative, but after more research we believe this is a compelling idea
Nagacorp is a unique business well protected by a monopolistic license until 2045 that benefits from the Asia growing and gambling structural trend. Operates in a low-cost and low-tax country that allows them to attract gamblers and generate outsized returns on invested capital
Read 5 tweets
18 Aug
My thoughts on Pax Global: Amazing results proving once again that the business isn't commodity generating 20% ROEs and >50% ROCEs.
Pax is leading the Android terminal transition with 35% total revenue coming from APOS and expected to be >70% in four years
APAC grew 23% despite COVID issues. India is the biggest country and Pax is the market leader. Paytm (supported by Alibaba) and Pinelabs (Pax customers) looking for IPO which would accelerate their growth. Do you remember the impact of Pagseguro and Stone IPOs on Pax in 2018?
Big customers asking for Pax solutions in Europe and USCA. Gaining market share to Ingenico and Verifone due to its superior product portfolio. I expect Pax keeping amazing growth for years. Pax market share is 10% and they plan to double it in the next 4 years (Ingenico 25%)
Read 12 tweets
22 Jul
$DOM Excelentes resultados de Global Dominion. La compañía deja atrás el COVID reportando récord semestral creciendo un 31% en beneficios vs el 2019. Estas cifras habrían sido incluso superiores +45% eliminando el efecto de los tipos de cambio (principalmente México y EEUU)
La entrada de un socio minoritario en el segmento de renovables se retrasa ya que consideran que la buena evolución de los proyectos y la obtención de nuevos requieren una revaluación del precio que exigían por el segmento. Siguen con la intención de dar entrada a un socio!
El crecimiento no proviene del M&A. Crecimiento orgánico récord en un entorno poco favorable para segmentos como B2C. Alta generación de caja (>70% EBITDA). La compañía sigue cotizando a precios muy atractivos y prueba de ello son las recompras que están ejecutando.
Read 4 tweets
20 Jul
$GLNG has reached an agreement to increase the utilisation of Hilli. Golar is very bullish on the LNG prices as shown in the contract structure. Taking into account the current futures, it will add 26M FCF in 2022 and 30M per year from 2023 onwards.
Those news are in line with our model. We expected between 20M and 30M of FCF in 2022. Notice that Golar has upside, for eg, if 2023 LNG prices are like where they are today, Golar makes 62M of FCF per year on 0.4M tonnes. If we add oil at $75, this means $100M+
We are aware Golar isn't happy, but the Hilli FLNG must remain sited there until mid-2026. Hilli is a 2.4M tonnes FLNG, but only 1.6M tonnes will be used by 2023. If Perenco/Gazprom doesn't solve its own issues, GLNG will reallocate Hilli by mid-2026
Read 4 tweets
13 Jul
Presentación de los fondo Sigma Internacional y Gamma Global. Explicamos la filosofía de inversión y las posiciones más relevantes:

En el minuto 1.04 hablamos de la venta de TK. Es verdad que en el fondo de renta variable hemos rotado algunas veces de las filiales a la matriz dependiendo del descuento, pero esta vez hemos cerrado completamente la posición en todos nuestros vehículos entre 3.90 y 4
No significa que no creamos que exista un potencial elevado. Nos sigue gustando, el problema es que los comparables nos gustan más. Mantenemos 1M en nuestros vehículos más defensivos en TGP y tenemos deuda de TK vencimiento 2023 al 6.5%. TK no tendrá ningún problema para refi
Read 5 tweets

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