Presentación de los fondo Sigma Internacional y Gamma Global. Explicamos la filosofía de inversión y las posiciones más relevantes:

En el minuto 1.04 hablamos de la venta de TK. Es verdad que en el fondo de renta variable hemos rotado algunas veces de las filiales a la matriz dependiendo del descuento, pero esta vez hemos cerrado completamente la posición en todos nuestros vehículos entre 3.90 y 4
No significa que no creamos que exista un potencial elevado. Nos sigue gustando, el problema es que los comparables nos gustan más. Mantenemos 1M en nuestros vehículos más defensivos en TGP y tenemos deuda de TK vencimiento 2023 al 6.5%. TK no tendrá ningún problema para refi
Los motivos de la venta:
1. Cierre del descuento vs sus holdings
2. Retraso del super-ciclo a 2023/24 en tankers por menos scrapping del esperado
3. Preferencia por FLNG vs TGP que ofrece un dividendo sostenible del 12% vs 7.5% con una flota más simple y de más calidad
Vamos a seguir cubriendo TK ya que somos acreedores de la compañía y tenemos posición en TGP. No descartamos volver a tomar posición en el cp ya que los fundamentales siguen siendo buenos y estamos convencidos de que su valor real es muy superior al que refleja el mercado

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More from @gabcasla

17 Jun
Pax Global has released a profit alert announcement after market. Pax expects to record an increase of not less than 30% in net profit in 1H 2021 (compared to >10% guidance and ~18% consensus). The new Android solution and the SaaS platform are being incredibly successful.
You must be aware Pax profit grew 18% last 1H20. Pax is recording an all time profit, it is not only a COVID recovery. However, it is not a surprise as I suggested it in the last video. Pax was delivering enough terminals per month to beat its estimates

Pax Global is a wonderful company in a fantastic and growing sector. IMHO, I might be right if I go against the consensus and narrative saying that Pax Global is not a commodity business.
Ignore the narrative, do your own work!
Read 4 tweets
13 May
Excelentes resultados del grupo $TK. Tesis materializándose en línea con lo esperado. ¿Compartís mi feeling de que siempre que presenta bien TK la bolsa y el oil se hunden y nos termina arrastrando? 👇
$TGP. Resultados mejor de lo esperado. El anterior trimestre habían guiado -4M para Q12021 ($0.57eps) y han reportado +0.5M ($0.61eps). Fijado un barco a 1 año + ejercida opción por parte del cliente en otro + spot market-linked otro = 98% de la flota fija a 2021
La reducción de la deuda y la refinanciación a mejores tipos hace que el net income mejore la evolución del EBITDA. Aún así, la deuda total desciende únicamente 42M este trimestre. Esto es temporal y revertirá a lo largo del año: -39M "other operating assets and liabilities".
Read 7 tweets
21 Apr
I can't be more excited after having talked three times with different Golar managers this year. I feel new FLNG projects are coming very soon. The market doesn't understand the fantastic and disruptive technology Golar has
We understand market's doubts as Golar hasn’t signed new deals since late 2018, however, the environment wasn't appropriate. Asia LNG was trading between $2 and $6 MMBtu. Despite Golar has the lowest cost solution, I estimate the customer needs LNG above $5 to make good returns
The environment has changed. AsiaLNG is trading above $8 and we are not even in the strong seasonal period. Berstein expects the world to enter into a supply deficit that will grow to 74MTPA which needs to be supplied by new projects that have yet to FID over the next 4-5 years
Read 4 tweets
5 Apr
Amazing presentation from Pax Global on its FY 2020 earnings and fantastic Chairman's speech sharing his ambitious goal. Call transcript avaiable in the following link:

slideshare.net/GabrielCastroC…
The company is beating the most optimistic estimates. Management is excellent. They left China avoiding the commoditization and price war before nobody predicted it and switched to geographies where they add real value. Their moat is growing day by day and the best is yet to come
The management is aware of the shareholders' needs. They know the stock is really cheap and will continue to unlock value through increasing shareholder reward
Read 5 tweets
29 Mar
Pax Global reported amazing results and uploaded the best presentation I've seen since we became shareholders. Market should ease concerns on capital allocation and Long Term prospects from now. As I said many times, despite the huge price increase, the best is yet to come! 👇
Pax reported 0.83 EPS. It increased 46% due to 44% profit increase and 1.2% share count reduction. The adjusted profit is 0.91 EPS. Minor non-cash impairments due to COVID and the stock option are the differences. Notice that Pax stock option expenses are not recurrent like in US
While competitors like Ingenico struggled in 2020, Pax delivered an outstanding growth in all geographies due to its superior Android portfolio and SaaS solution. Moreover,the company didn't rest on their laurels, Pax increased 16% its R&D expenses above of its 15% revenue growth
Read 8 tweets
24 Mar
Bompard llegó a Carrefour en 2017 y diseñó un plan de turnaround desde 2018 a 2022. Los primeros tres años consistían en estabilizar el negocio, recuperar la confianza del consumidor y reorganizar la empresa para prepararla para el crecimiento futuro
La primera fase del plan ha sido un éxito: 1.Confianza del consumidor en máximos (NPS). 2. Reducción de costes, deuda e ingresos por activos non-core superando las expectativas. 3. Aumento de la marca blanca y reorganización de su portfolio. 4. Ecommerce
La perfecta ejecución del plan se ha trasladado en una significativa mejoría reduciendo en más de €1bn la deuda financiera y acumulando un crecimiento de EPS del 25% en los últimos 3 años. Especialmente significativo el turnaround en Francia donde los analistas eran recelosos
Read 7 tweets

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