It’s amazing that gold can out perform the dow for the last 20 years by a large margin and get so little respect. I don’t think I’ve ever seen sentiment so poor as it is right now. Not even when it was sub $300 in the late 90’s.
I think the success off crypto is a major cause for its short term weakness. The crypto crowd likes shitting on 5000 years of history and mocking gold as as some relic. But they have no clue about it’s intrinsic value and the long term stability it provides.
Gold is my base currency and I measure all my investments against it. I’m nearly never in cash and use physical gold products vs cash in my brokerage accounts. This may be the age of crypto currencies and it’s nearly impossible to predict when a mania ends
But the crypto craze will end in tears. It will be laughed about more than the dot.com craze. I remember well when the Nasdaq was in full mania mode back in 2000. Dot.com’a and others tech businesses with weak business models ipo’ing weekly
I used to focus in on shorting in front of ‘ipo lock up periods’ ending. The insiders at these companies where all mega millionaires on paper and I believed most new that their companies were crazily over valued. Post ipo they couldn’t sell stock for 3 or 6months
Usually their shares became free trading in tranches. Sometimes making them hold for over a year. But it was like clock work. The stocks would all dip and slide as more savvy investors and traders sold ahead of the supply of shares they knew was coming.
Crypto currencies will eventual have the same fate, the crypto billionaire and mega millionaire will continually unload on the public and convert their paper gains into homes, cars and yachts (and some to gold) just like all fiat currencies no one needs to own crypto currencies
It’s utterly useless and relies entirely upon convincing a growing number of people that it’s a good store of value. The minute the crypto crowd fails to convince more people to get in than there are people that want out it’s over
Like all metals, gold will continually see rising mining costs. Opex and capex. It will always have rising production costs as a floor. It and silver have many industrial uses as well as cosmetic. Even if you forget about it’s long monetary history its got value and is needed.
As far as commodities go it’s easy and cheap to store vs it’s price and that is why it has that long monetary history. If you’re worried about currency debasement and inflation it will be there for you along with real estate etc
Final point I like to make about crypto is that for those thinking they can hid in it and that governments will sit back and allow any one of those ponzi coins to become the dominate currency in there country your mad.
Governments have the power of taxation. One example, when they raise taxes in property they create demand for their currency. You want to own property you must acquire currency and pay them. Crypto will never have that power and conversely will be taxed.
Governments like to be able to create currency and fund budget deficits. They will never give up this tool and if crypto currencies grow in popularity they will go to war against it and surely win
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