Today at #Lab21 conference will debate the rules for electing Keir Starmer's successor.

This has been a damaging spectacle over the last few days, but the consequences of today's vote could be more damaging to the party in the long term ... 🧵
The first thing to note is that the original proposals to revert to a less democratic electoral college have been withdrawn, after a huge backlash

To focus on internal politics at this time is misjudged. To do it incompetently ...
The proposals being debated today keep OMOV but would change the rules in the following ways
-Raise threshold of MP nominations from 10% to 20% (currently c.40 MPs)
-Ditch registered supporters
-Freeze date for members 6 months prior to start of contest (new members can’t vote)
First, MP threshold change: explicitly briefed as excluding a left-wing candidate (I'm not so sure!), cos the right aren't confident of winning an argument.

But it also risks excluding women/BAME candidates who have historically received fewer nominations
On registered supporters:

In 2015, 112,000 registered (paying £3 each) generating £336,000

In 2016, over 120,000 registered supporters (paying £25 each) generated £3m

In 2020, 13,000 registered (£25 each again) generating £325,000

Many later joined as members, paying £ms more
Why would you want to lose this revenue? Especially when the party needs money. We've lost 120,000 members since Keir became leader, leading to mass staff redundancies

We've lost the last 4 elections. Losing revenue, losing members, losing staff is not a winning formula
Finally the freeze date:

Excluding new members by putting in a freeze date before a leadership contest will lose even more revenue.

People join to vote; they join because a candidate inspires them.

Why not “open our doors and reach new people” as Ed Miliband said in 2014?
Final point: if you think Labour doesn't need a mass membership and can rely on big donors, I think you're delusional.

1. Big donors want a return on investment. If they don't think you're going to be in Govt (polling suggests not currently) they won't donate
2. They're fickle.

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More from @FisherAndrew79

25 Sep
Wow! That's narrow. Assumed he'd walk it. Show real discomfort with way Labour members and staff have been treated.

Remember, even having a vote on this is unprecedented, it usually goes through on the nod. #Lab21
Has anyone yet seen the union/CLP split on this?
Labour official texts to say they think c.65/35 for among unions, and c.55/45 among CLPs.

Nearly half of CLPs rejecting is big, if right ...
Read 5 tweets
18 Sep
Really interesting piece in tomorrow's Observer on Labour's potential support base 🧵 1/n

"Of those [open to voting Labour], 27% voted Conservative, 17% voted Lib Dem, 3% voted Green and 5% voted for other parties. (The rest did not vote.)"

theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
Right so, of those open to voting Labour, 48% did not vote in 2019.

So why target soft Tories, and not non-voters?

The piece argues: "When the group is adjusted for its likelihood to vote, soft Tory supporters account for 43% of the group"
2/n
But here's the difference. Non-voters require a different strategy. They haven't voted, so you have to inspire them.

As I argued in this piece a month ago "electoral strategy isn't a value-free science", it depends on the coalition you want to build
3/n
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Read 14 tweets
24 Aug
Today marks the 90th anniversary of the second Labour government falling when then Prime Minister Ramsay MacDonald proposed a 20% cut in unemployment benefit

Today Johnson and Sunak are about to cut #UniversalCredit by 21%

My piece for @ipaperviews ...🧵
inews.co.uk/opinion/univer…
The Labour government was elected in 1929, just before the Wall Street Crash provoked a global depression. Despite many on the left of the party putting forward what would become known as Keynesian solutions, MacDonald and Snowden insisted on cuts to the incomes of the poorest
At Labour conference in 1930, James Maxton had attacked the leadership for their “timidity and vacillation” and said the Government should “use all its powers towards increasing the purchasing power of the workers, reducing workers’ hours, initiating a national housing programme”
Read 6 tweets
18 Aug
A little anecdote from 21 years ago … 17 months before 9/11 happened, when an aeroplane hijacked in Kabul landed at Stansted airport.

It was a scheduled domestic flight to Mazar-e Sharif and had 165 Afghan people on board ... 🧵
This was how the BBC reported the Government’s response in February 2000

Then Home Secretary Jack Straw refused to offer asylum to any of those on board fleeing the Taliban
If Straw’s response seemed callous, then check the response from then Leader of the Opposition William Hague:

"We must not allow this country to reinforce its growing image as a soft touch for asylum seekers."

This was the UK view of people fleeing the Taliban in 2000
Read 8 tweets
23 Jul
75 years ago today, on 23 July 1946, James Maxton died

He was Labour MP for Glasgow Bridgeton, which he had represented since 1922, and Leader of the Independent Labour Party 🌹✊
Maxton was a conscientious objector to World War I, and as a member of the Clyde Workers' Committee organised strikes for better pay, while also supporting the Glasgow rent strikes🌹🕊️✊
In 1931 Maxton addressed the Durham Miners Gala, saying:

"Every man who is genuinely anxious for the welfare of the workers is impatiently waiting for a new social order where poverty, tyranny and degradation will be unknown."
Read 5 tweets
21 Jul
Over the last two days, MPs debated the Nationality & Borders Bill which creates an even more hostile environment for refugees who reach our shores.

Labour voted against this racist legislation. And I want to highlight three outstanding speeches by backbench Labour MPs 1/n
Firstly, @BellRibeiroAddy:

"This horrendous piece of legislation ... does nothing to create safe routes for refugees, nothing to end the hostile environment, nothing to end the danger of unsafe asylum accommodation" 2/n
@BellRibeiroAddy "We are living through an age of mass displacement driven by war, poverty and climate breakdown …At times like this, the Government should not be dodging their moral and legal obligations to accept their fair share of refugees"

3/n
Read her full speech: hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2021-0…
Read 12 tweets

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