I'm a fundamental analyst and don't subscribe to technical analysis, but sometimes a chart can tell an interesting story better than words can - I've been looking at energy commodity charts while studying $panr and some observations -
#Oil is a real laggard vs. #natgas and #coal - despite being up ~55% YTD it hasn't really participated in the energy price surge to same extent as its fellow fossil fuels - here's the price lag YTD, showing oil is well behind:
Here's oil lagging over last 3 yrs chart -
And lagging over 5 yrs -
And lagging over 10 yrs -
Again I'm NOT a technical analyst, but I thought this chart was also interesting - #oil breaking out of a ~13 year downward price trend?
Sometimes a picture paints a thousand words. Real assets are interesting right now, and within this energy looks like a particularly interesting situation.

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More from @ValueSituations

Feb 21, 2023
A significant cog in the global supply chain now gone, due to what I've previously termed as the shifting global political (& economic) order, and yet another example of the Precarity of Supply. Sustained inflation seems inevitable. reuters.com/business/maers…
Previous thoughts; - A New Megatrend - valuesits.substack.com/p/weekly-bulle…
Read 5 tweets
Feb 17, 2023
On Monday, I published a new watchlist idea that is a quality-value compounder & serial acquirer that has outperformed many of the best regarded acquirer/platform companies including TransDigm $TDG, Halma Plc $HLMA.LN & Danaher $DHR - furthermore this name is a "Buffett Stock" -
- in the sense that this idea meets all of Berkshire's Acquisition Criteria as outlined in $BRK shareholder letters over the years (from 2014 Letter below) -
Specifically with regard to my latest idea:
1) At least $75 million of pre-tax earnings unless business will fit into one of our existing units – my idea generated ~$800m in pre-tax profits in FY22 & is market leader in a niche in which $BRK already owns a smaller competitor;
Read 9 tweets
Sep 30, 2022
#highyield credit watch 👀 - cracks starting to show? "Credit stress nearing critical zone (BofA) .. Investors fled risky assets over fears of a recession, pulling $3 billion from high-yield bonds & $1.9 billion from leveraged loans in the wk ended Sept. 28"; liquidity drying up?
Investors Balk at Risky Buyout Debt - bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Even private credit direct lenders are pulling back from market - bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 6 tweets
Aug 22, 2022
Commodity prices can still rise as economic growth & demand declines if there's not enough of *existing* basic supply. I think supply matters more than demand right now #precarityofsupply -->
Constrained power supply =constrained production of critical materials for which their remains strategic demand - ft.com/content/0906df…
Declining demand due to recessionary concerns won't change the weather to the betterment of basic supply of key commodities across materials, agriculture and energy - wsj.com/articles/droug…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 19, 2022
@Edark94 @MadThunderdome @Josh_Young_1 evening gents, just catching up on this discussion thread now; first off, to be clear, yes this is NOT a good biz or even a good industry, E&C/EPC historically terrible and $SPM in particular has been (and remains) a BASKETCASE, BUT -
I simply highlighted $SPM recently as an interesting special sit torque play on the energy security theme following its capital raise (bail out) - I see it effectively as a quasi-distressed sit or an option on a new energy security bull mkt, AND it's cheaper than it seems -
- as I commented before in the tweet @Edark94 highlighted it's debt/cash neutral now & trades at ~2x on PF basis; I set out some thoughts on it before for those interested; ALSO - valuesits.substack.com/p/weekly-bulle… -
Read 10 tweets
Aug 19, 2022
There has been much discussion about how the recent rollover in commodity prices is due to recessionary fears and demand destruction from already high prices - but there is a class of commodity that appears to be bucking the trend - titanium feedstocks, namely ilmenite
Ilmenite is a mineral sand that is the main input for titanium dixoxide and titanium metal; Kenmare Resources Plc $KMR #KMR, the world's largest ilmenite producer (~8%-10% global mkt share) this wk reported H1 results, which noted record pricing for its products AND -
reported recent price increases are continuing into Q3 (as other commodity prices have fallen), attributable to tight global supply & low inventories -
Read 6 tweets

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