I'm a fundamental analyst and don't subscribe to technical analysis, but sometimes a chart can tell an interesting story better than words can - I've been looking at energy commodity charts while studying $panr and some observations -
#Oil is a real laggard vs. #natgas and #coal - despite being up ~55% YTD it hasn't really participated in the energy price surge to same extent as its fellow fossil fuels - here's the price lag YTD, showing oil is well behind:
Here's oil lagging over last 3 yrs chart -
And lagging over 5 yrs -
And lagging over 10 yrs -
Again I'm NOT a technical analyst, but I thought this chart was also interesting - #oil breaking out of a ~13 year downward price trend?
Sometimes a picture paints a thousand words. Real assets are interesting right now, and within this energy looks like a particularly interesting situation.
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A significant cog in the global supply chain now gone, due to what I've previously termed as the shifting global political (& economic) order, and yet another example of the Precarity of Supply. Sustained inflation seems inevitable. reuters.com/business/maers…
On Monday, I published a new watchlist idea that is a quality-value compounder & serial acquirer that has outperformed many of the best regarded acquirer/platform companies including TransDigm $TDG, Halma Plc $HLMA.LN & Danaher $DHR - furthermore this name is a "Buffett Stock" -
- in the sense that this idea meets all of Berkshire's Acquisition Criteria as outlined in $BRK shareholder letters over the years (from 2014 Letter below) -
Specifically with regard to my latest idea: 1) At least $75 million of pre-tax earnings unless business will fit into one of our existing units – my idea generated ~$800m in pre-tax profits in FY22 & is market leader in a niche in which $BRK already owns a smaller competitor;
Commodity prices can still rise as economic growth & demand declines if there's not enough of *existing* basic supply. I think supply matters more than demand right now #precarityofsupply -->
Constrained power supply =constrained production of critical materials for which their remains strategic demand - ft.com/content/0906df…
Declining demand due to recessionary concerns won't change the weather to the betterment of basic supply of key commodities across materials, agriculture and energy - wsj.com/articles/droug…
@Edark94@MadThunderdome@Josh_Young_1 evening gents, just catching up on this discussion thread now; first off, to be clear, yes this is NOT a good biz or even a good industry, E&C/EPC historically terrible and $SPM in particular has been (and remains) a BASKETCASE, BUT -
I simply highlighted $SPM recently as an interesting special sit torque play on the energy security theme following its capital raise (bail out) - I see it effectively as a quasi-distressed sit or an option on a new energy security bull mkt, AND it's cheaper than it seems -
- as I commented before in the tweet @Edark94 highlighted it's debt/cash neutral now & trades at ~2x on PF basis; I set out some thoughts on it before for those interested; ALSO - valuesits.substack.com/p/weekly-bulle… -
There has been much discussion about how the recent rollover in commodity prices is due to recessionary fears and demand destruction from already high prices - but there is a class of commodity that appears to be bucking the trend - titanium feedstocks, namely ilmenite
Ilmenite is a mineral sand that is the main input for titanium dixoxide and titanium metal; Kenmare Resources Plc $KMR #KMR, the world's largest ilmenite producer (~8%-10% global mkt share) this wk reported H1 results, which noted record pricing for its products AND -
reported recent price increases are continuing into Q3 (as other commodity prices have fallen), attributable to tight global supply & low inventories -