Thread by @Taniel

The map that CO's redistricting commission is on the brink of adopting is almost identical to the one shared last week that gave Dems such angst bc it could bring about a 4-4 map in a blue state, & in fact amends it to make it a *tiny* bit redder. #s here: coleg.app.box.com/s/8c53czin5evs…

https://twitter.com/alex_burness/status/1443039596523053061

If adopted, thew map would set up a very competitive battle over a new CD8: went for Trump in 2016 & very narrowly for Dems in the 2018 Gov race & 2020 Senate race. (Worth noting there's another Dem seat that, while consistently Dem, is close to the bubble.)

Folks, a major twist. The map I was discussing above got 7 votes out of 12 in the redistricting commission's 2nd & 3rd rounds of voting. One vote from the needed 8.

But now, on *4th* round, it suddenly went down to 5 votes! Another got 6. And it's FAR more favorable to Dems.

Of the 2 maps nearly all commissioners split between, the one that just surged has FIVE districts that are all bluer than the other map's 5th *and* 4th bluest seats.

As in: 12 people in a room are close to deciding the 2022 fate of one if not two congressional districts...

Important note: Unless the Dem commissioners rally around another plan, & convince 4 other commissioners to join them, a map similar to the first in this thread (= a more GOP-friendly one) will likely be the one the state adopts. Heading there?

https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/1443070026479775744

5th round of voting finds 3 maps with equal support (4 votes each). It doesn't seem there's much momentum here to finding a resolution on a new map today, & one independent commissioner has made it clear she'd like to end the meeting & leave CO with the default GOP-leaning map.

This 3rd map suddenly focalizing a lot of the discussion would be the least Dem friendly of the latest options.

Trump would have carried 5 of the 8 districts in 2016 (while losing the state, of course)! That... would be something. The GOP is framing it as a "compromise."

This is right: If this 3rd map ("Schuster") were to suddenly emerge victorious, Lauren Boebert would be far weaker. And there'd be far more possible variability: a goodish Dem year may produce a 6-2 D map, a goodish GOP year may produce a 5-3 R map.

https://twitter.com/TylerDinucci/status/1443083083951919111

What's apparent is how much commissioners talk past one another, each insisiting on different criteria. Partisan split, geographic splits, competitiveness...

One says: "It's very confusing to me you'd exchange commnities of interest for competition." Clearly others disagree.