Taniel Profile picture
29 Sep, 9 tweets, 3 min read
The map that CO's redistricting commission is on the brink of adopting is almost identical to the one shared last week that gave Dems such angst bc it could bring about a 4-4 map in a blue state, & in fact amends it to make it a *tiny* bit redder. #s here: coleg.app.box.com/s/8c53czin5evs…
If adopted, thew map would set up a very competitive battle over a new CD8: went for Trump in 2016 & very narrowly for Dems in the 2018 Gov race & 2020 Senate race. (Worth noting there's another Dem seat that, while consistently Dem, is close to the bubble.)
Folks, a major twist. The map I was discussing above got 7 votes out of 12 in the redistricting commission's 2nd & 3rd rounds of voting. One vote from the needed 8.

But now, on *4th* round, it suddenly went down to 5 votes! Another got 6. And it's FAR more favorable to Dems.
Of the 2 maps nearly all commissioners split between, the one that just surged has FIVE districts that are all bluer than the other map's 5th *and* 4th bluest seats.

As in: 12 people in a room are close to deciding the 2022 fate of one if not two congressional districts...
Important note: Unless the Dem commissioners rally around another plan, & convince 4 other commissioners to join them, a map similar to the first in this thread (= a more GOP-friendly one) will likely be the one the state adopts. Heading there?
5th round of voting finds 3 maps with equal support (4 votes each). It doesn't seem there's much momentum here to finding a resolution on a new map today, & one independent commissioner has made it clear she'd like to end the meeting & leave CO with the default GOP-leaning map.
This 3rd map suddenly focalizing a lot of the discussion would be the least Dem friendly of the latest options.

Trump would have carried 5 of the 8 districts in 2016 (while losing the state, of course)! That... would be something. The GOP is framing it as a "compromise."
This is right: If this 3rd map ("Schuster") were to suddenly emerge victorious, Lauren Boebert would be far weaker. And there'd be far more possible variability: a goodish Dem year may produce a 6-2 D map, a goodish GOP year may produce a 5-3 R map.
What's apparent is how much commissioners talk past one another, each insisiting on different criteria. Partisan split, geographic splits, competitiveness...

One says: "It's very confusing to me you'd exchange commnities of interest for competition." Clearly others disagree.

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More from @Taniel

28 Sep
This past weekend was a wild day in European politics.

Gay marriage was legalized, abortion was legalized, the center-left will likely return to power in a major country, there was a housing referendum that grabbed headlines worldwide, ... and there's more.

Let's explore. ↓
1️⃣ GERMANY: Center-left is likely to lead Germany for the first time since 1998-2005.

The SPD (social-dems) bested the CDU (conservative) for the first time since 2002. CDU got the worst result of their history. And the Greens got their best result ever in a national election.
But: difficult negotiations are ahead to form a majority coaition. Likeliest scenario is that SPD & Greens ally with each other *&* with center-right FDP. (A big drop for the Linke [Left] made an all-left alliance mathematically impossible.) The far-right receded a bit too.
Read 11 tweets
26 Sep
Polls have closed in Germany. And the 2 exit polls aired by German media project a far tighter situation than final month’s polls.

One has SPD & CDU tied at 25%; other, SPD up 26/24.

Will be a historically low result for CDU regardless — but they have a path to hold to power.
At 25%, CDU is hovering about 10-15 % points below where it was in the past 4 elections (when twas led by Merkel).

SPD may be higher than it's been since 2005.

15% would be highest Greens have ever received in a national election. They're highly likely to be in next government.
Both German exit polls project for now that the AFD, Germany's far-right party, has gone *down* since the last elections (when it got a historic 12.6%). But also that it'll remain at a very high level (10-11%).
Read 16 tweets
20 Sep
🚨 Big stuff in Oregon.

Dems are pulling plug on a power-sharing arrangement on redistricting, and would then likely quickly pass a congressional map enshrining a 5-1 delegation.
This comes a couple of hours after the state Senate (which did not have such an arrangement) passed such a map.
Republicans may now break quorum in response (as they have in past years on other matters, which precipitated the crisis that led to the power sharing in the first place), which could paralyze the legislature and its map:
Read 4 tweets
8 Sep
Richmond is removing its Robert E. Lee statue today.

The erection of the statue & similar statues in the late 1800s caused huge fights, with black leaders -- incl. Frederick Douglass & black members in the Richmond City Council -- fighting it.

David Blight's "Race & Reunion":
We often see ppl shrug-off oppressive practices in the past, "they were living according to the consensus of the times" --- but "the times" contained plenty of public resistance, dissension & dissent, protest, & crushing those were inexcusable political choices not some fate.
Read 4 tweets
3 Aug
Conservatives heighten their push vs reform prosecutors.

Latest targets, 3 Dems elected in 2019 on progressive platforms in Virginia: in Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun counties. (The first 2 ousted Dem incumbents in primaries.)
I expect those VA recall *efforts* will be cited in many pieces as additional evidence of a backlash. But as Krasner's 2:1 win in May attests to, the existence of (much-publicized) political & policy *opposition* is both normal, & not synonymous with wide backlash. We shall see.
A note I'd add to @kenvogel's article: wave of wins for progressive prosecutors in VA was not unique to 2019, nor did it disappear this year. There were a few elections just this summer!

Just two months ago, a reform candidate won a primary in Norfolk. 
Read 4 tweets
1 Aug
An important @schadenfraade essay on how public services and urban governance are deeply value-imbued matters — and what it looks like to have a left project around them: slate.com/business/2021/…
“All these struggles fit within a long history of Americans stripping cities for parts, hoarding the wealth in the suburbs, and then claiming urbanites can’t govern themselves.”
Part of what’s needed is attention to the hundreds of places in the country where the battles and movements described in this piece are being fought, and what that’s already looking like. (Excited to continue chronicling that, starting with whatsontheballot.com)
Read 4 tweets

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