Thread by @nicktolhurst

A point that’s often forgotten by remainers is the key role 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 plays in the next Labour govt.

The assumption (probably correct) that SNP wins nearly all 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 seats if Tories lose…actually makes 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 role in next Labour govt even more crucial…not less.

Here’s why…

The key point is Labour are a 🇬🇧union party. Out of conviction & self interest.

They won’t want to “lose” Scotland. No party wants that on their watch.

So the question is what can Labour offer the most anti Brexit part of the UK that will convince them to not go independent..?

Any coalition that is in anyway dependent on 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 seats and particularly on cooperation with the SNP can offer only 1 thing that might avoid 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 independence ->

A huge softening of Brexit.
It’s the only thing Labour have got it can give - and its of course what Labour members want.

Will it stop independence?
Maybe, maybe not.

But it’s the last card to play.
And makes perfect sense for other non Tory parties to support.

It’s why I keep banging on about removing Tories 1st - whatever Starmer says now he likely faces v different post election logic in 2024..

It’s not just about delaying a referendum - which may well no longer be possible.

It’s about giving those swing Scots voters a reason to not vote independence when/if a referendum comes…

This is the key.

I’ve seen a few people commenting that SNP “only want independence. End of”.

This may be true - I may even think independence a good thing - but that doesn’t change the thread point.

Labour have only really one thing to offer that could delay 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Indy - undoing a hard Brexit.

The more you think about this the more you realise that - away from the more fevered imaginations of anti Starmer remainers - the pressure a Labour led govt would be under to undo Brexit from the “Scottish angle alone” would be immense & irresistible.

Here’s why..

Imagine for a moment a 2nd 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿referendum fought during a labour govt in which Labour had not in any meaningful way been shown to have undone big chunks of Brexit.

It would be a bloodbath of the pro-union vote.

In other words:

Labour cannot afford another 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿referendum on its watch where Labour has not been shown to be anti Brexit in deed.

Labour will need to move fast on this.
Very fast.

It’s why - contrary to what many assume - I’m les interested in the final Labour MP tally in 2024 as in getting Tory seats under 310.

Anything below 310 (or possibly below 315 depending on DUP implosion) = end of hard Brexit momentum.

Regardless what politicians are saying now.