Thread by @ProfDFrancis

Finding the stats tweetorials hard?

Some easier questions.
Examine the quote tweets on this tweet, and answer the questions that follow.

https://twitter.com/DRAFZALNIAZ2/status/1423345250274320388/retweets/with_comments

Here is the claim:

What would you do if you see this tweet?

If you Googled, you would see this:

So let's click on the top link

We know that each codon has 3 slots for DNA/RNA "letters", and each slot has 4 possibilities.

(The letters are A C G T for either DNA or RNA, I can't remember which. The T is a U for the other one.)

How many combinations does that permit for (say) a DNA codon?

And there are 20 possible amino acids.

So, very roughly, how many possible codons are there for each amino acid?

The symbol for Arrrrrrrrrginine is (presumably for onomatopoeically humorous reasons) "R"

Based on the above table from the first hit on Google, what proportion of

Arginine-Arginine pairs would you expect to have the codons CGGCGG?

Very very roughly, arginine is 1 of 20 amino acids. Assuming they are distributed roughly randomly and independently, we would expect (1/20)x(1/20) of amino acid pairs to be arginine-arginine, i.e.

1/400 of successive pairs in a protein.

Based on what you have calculated in the previous question, a CGGCGG should be seen once per how many amino acid pairs in a protein chain?

The ORBITA-HQ PhD students have ganged up on me and convince me that "kb" in this image means "kilobases" not "kilobytes".

Whatever.

It's the top search hit for "Covid genome", and it's oddly linked to Mark Zuckerberg, but not Bill Gates, so it's OK, even for tinfoil hatters.

That is 10,000 starting points to look for a CGG-CGG.

This means that in a virus DNA of the length of Covid's, roughly what is the probability of getting a CGG-CGG, assuming everything is random?

To me, it makes no sense to point to something with 1/4 probability of happening by chance alone, and saying it is evidence of witchcraft or alien abduction or whatever.

ESPECIALLY if you picked it post hoc, doh.

Here is an equivalent.

Look at the number plate on this car!

I confirm that NO CAR ON EARTH has ever had this number plate sequence.

This combination of symbols is extremely rare in nature. In fact, it occurs with zero frequency, outside of this car.

Therefore this car must have been delivered by a UFO from outer space.

I really don't know how we can help people who can't distinguish a line of reasoning, from just random gibberish.

It's not just in Coronavirus. Anti-vaxxers, statin-deniers, flat-earthers and others share this approach.

Do you think it is lack of intelligence, or lack of education, or wilful blindness, or what?

I am genuinely open to suggestions.

I am just not used to speaking to such people. I live a cloistered life in the ivory tower of ORBITA-HQ, I guess.

How can we help them?