Important new peer-reviewed paper on lockdown cost-benefits by Professor Douglas W Allen of @SFU published in the International Journal of the Economics of Business (I am a co-editor) @Routledge_Econ
Currently free to access here:
...
tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.108…
Currently free to access here:
...
tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.108…
…
Using the "mid-point estimates", Prof Allen finds a cost-benefit ratio of about 140 (i.e. costs of lockdown were 140 times greater than benefits).
Even with the most extreme & unrealistic assumption about deaths averted by lockdowns, costs still outweigh benefits …
Using the "mid-point estimates", Prof Allen finds a cost-benefit ratio of about 140 (i.e. costs of lockdown were 140 times greater than benefits).
Even with the most extreme & unrealistic assumption about deaths averted by lockdowns, costs still outweigh benefits …
…
Note the mid-point estimate assumes lockdowns reduced Covid deaths by 20%.
In fact, Prof Allen concludes we cannot rule out that lockdowns had zero effect on mortality, in which case, the cost-benefit conclusion would be much worse …
Note the mid-point estimate assumes lockdowns reduced Covid deaths by 20%.
In fact, Prof Allen concludes we cannot rule out that lockdowns had zero effect on mortality, in which case, the cost-benefit conclusion would be much worse …
…
e.g. although “a small reduction (benefit) cannot be ruled out for early and light levels of lockdown restrictions. There is almost no consistent evidence that strong levels of lockdown have a beneficial effect, and … a zero (or even negative) effect cannot be ruled out.” …
e.g. although “a small reduction (benefit) cannot be ruled out for early and light levels of lockdown restrictions. There is almost no consistent evidence that strong levels of lockdown have a beneficial effect, and … a zero (or even negative) effect cannot be ruled out.” …
…
Professor Allen’s overall conclusion:
“Lockdowns are not just an inefficient policy, they must rank as one of the greatest peacetime policy disasters of all time.”
Professor Allen’s overall conclusion:
“Lockdowns are not just an inefficient policy, they must rank as one of the greatest peacetime policy disasters of all time.”
Apparently article currently behind the pay wall but it will be free to access (for a limited period) in the near future.
Just checked with the publisher and apparently the article will be free to access from some time next week.
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