Liqian Ren Profile picture
Oct 1, 2021 9 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1. Better headline: "Will Common Prosperity Make Japan Great Again?" MJGA!😂 We have deep expertise and top indexes on Japanese equity, particularly currency hedging. Below is the list of some under appreciated things of Japanese equity.
2. Underappreciated: If US fiscal/monetary response to the pandemic is large, Japan's is even a larger share of GDP. Lay person language: money money money for the economy.
3. Our colleague reviewed how Warren Buffet's Japanese investment last September has turned out. Following Mr. Buffet, global investors have been putting money there quietly for a while. wisdomtree.com/blog/2021-05-0…
4. There's impression that Japanese companies hoard cash and pay peanuts on dividend. Data actually showed they are increasing dividend as a faster rate than many other developed countries. @JeffWeniger
5. On Corporate Governance: a new requirement that the number of independent board directors must increase from two individuals to one-third of the mix. A new requirement to publish disclosure materials in English!!! wisdomtree.com/blog/2021-08-3…
6. Digitalization will be a growth area for Japan because they are below average in spending time on the internet and spending money on digitalization by the government. h/t Clocktowers
7. Japan leads spending on R&D and is at forefront of green energy transformation.
8. Next 20 years, competition will be fierce in energy efficiency and hard tech industries. Japanese companies are in the best position to benefit on #China's push for self-reliance on hard tech and biotech.

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More from @liqian_ren

Jan 31
1/4 Pres. Xi: " The financial system led by our Party is ultimately intended to benefit the people, which is fundamentally different from the nature of the financial systems in some countries that serve capital and the interests of a wealthy few."
"我们党领导的金融事业,归根到底要造福人民,与一些国家金融为资本服务、为少数有钱人服务的本质截然不同。"
politics.people.com.cn/n1/2026/0131/c…Image
Obvious, every article that's penned by Pres. Xi on Qiu Shi (Seeking Truth) magazine is a must read.
Is this article a good message for financial industry in China? Overall yes, but remember, the Party wants "finance with Chinese characteristics". You got to understand the Chinese characteristics part. The road is long.

走好中国特色金融发展之路,建设金融强国

习近平

2026年01月31日15:16 | 来源:《求是》2026/03

走好中国特色金融发展之路,建设金融强国※

习近平



党的十八大以来,我们积极探索新时代金融发展规律,不断加深对中国特色社会主义金融本质的认识,不断推进金融实践创新、理论创新、制度创新,积累了宝贵经验,逐步走出一条中国特色金融发展之路。

📷

2023年10月30日至31日,中央金融工作会议在北京举行。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平出席会议并发表重要讲话。 新华社记者 鞠鹏/摄

第一,坚持党中央对金融工作的集中统一领导。党的领导是中国特色金融发展之路最本质的特征,是我国金融发展最大的政治优势、制度优势。我国金融发展的重大成就,始终是在党的领导下取得的。而金融系统出现的许多问题,根源就在于金融领域不少单位贯彻党中央决策部署不力,落实党的领导弱化虚化,党的政治建设薄弱,党风廉政建设抓得不紧。因此,必须坚持党中央对金融工作的集中统一领导,发挥党总揽全局、协调各方的领导核心作用,确保金融工作始终沿着正确方向前进。

第二,坚持以人民为中心的价值取向。我们党领导的金融事业,归根到底要造福人民,与一些国家金融为资本服务、为少数有钱人服务的本质截然不同。新时代新征程,金融工作要站稳人民立场,增强服务的多样性、普惠性、可及性,更好保护金融消费者权益。

第三,坚持把金融服务实体经济作为根本宗旨。实体经济是金融的根基,金融是实体经济的血脉,服务实体经济是金融的天职。如果热衷于自我循环、自我膨胀,金融就会变成无源之水、无本之木,迟早酿成危机。我国金融必须守好服务实体经济本分,推动高质量发展,决不能脱实向虚。

第四,坚持把防控风险作为金融工作的永恒主题。金融既有管理和分散风险的功能,又自带风险基因。我国金融体量和复杂程度今非昔比,风险的系统性关联性大大增强。必须增强忧患意识,做好风险防控,增强金融体系韧性。

第五,坚持在市场化法治化轨道上推进金融创新发展。金融的安全靠制度、活力在市场、秩序靠法治。金融交易涉及复杂多样的权利义务关系,具有信息不对称特征,对信用的要求非常高,必须有健全的监管制度。要建立完善的金融法律和市场规则体系,有禁必止,违法必究,保障金融市场健康运行。

第六,坚持深化金融供给侧结构性改革。我国金融体系的重要特征和优势是国有金融机构占主体,但存在间接融资和债权融资比重偏高、金融服务普惠性不足等问题,还存在金融泛化、乱办金融、大量非法金融活动。针对这些问题,要深化金融供给侧结构性改革,理顺间接融资与直接融资、股权融资与债权融资的关系,优化金融体系结构,完善金融基础设施,提高金融服务质量和效率。

第七,坚持统筹金融开放和安全。金融对外开放必须确保国家金融和经济安全,既要防范开放本身带来的风险,还要防范博弈对手蓄意制造的风险。要把握好开放的节奏和力度,切实提升金融监管能力,以更高水平风险防控保障更高水平金融开放。

第八,坚持稳中求进工作总基调。金融工作要坚持稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破。要稳字当头,宏观调控、金融发展、金融改革、金融监管、风险处置等都要稳,金融政策的收和放不能太急,防止大起大落。同时,要积极进取,把该立的抓紧立起来,在稳住阵脚、稳住基本态势中不断解决问题、不断前进。要坚持货币政策的稳健性,灵活运用多种政策工具,促进宏观经济平稳健康发展。

以上几条,明确了新时代新征程金融工作怎么看、怎么干,是体现中国特色金融发展之路基本立场、观点、方法的有机整体。中国特色金融发展之路既遵循现代金融发展的客观规律,更具有适合我国国情的鲜明特色,与西方金融模式有本质区别。我们要坚定自信,在实践中继续探索完善,使这条路越走越宽广。



我在中央金融工作会议上提出了加快建设金融强国的目标。什么是金融强国?应当基于强大的经济基础,具有领先世界的经济实力、科技实力和综合国力,同时具备一系列关键核心金融要素。一是拥有强大的货币,在国际贸易投资和外汇市场广泛使用,具有全球储备货币地位。二是拥有强大的中央银行,有能力做好货币政策调控和宏观审慎管理、及时有效防范化解系统性风险。三是拥有强大的金融机构,运营效率高,抗风险能力强,门类齐全,具有全球布局能力和国际竞争力。四是拥有强大的国际金融中心,能够吸引全球投资者,影响国际定价体系。五是拥有强大的金融监管,金融法治健全,在国际金融规则制定中拥有强大话语权和影响力。六是拥有强大的金融人才队伍。我国虽然已是金融大国,银行体量、外汇储备等指标世界第一,债市、股市规模世界第二,保险规模也名列前茅,但总体上大而不强。建设金融强国需要长期努力,久久为功。

📷

2024年1月16日,省部级主要领导干部推动金融高质量发展专题研讨班在中央党校(国家行政学院)开班。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平在开班式上发表重要讲话。赵乐际、王沪宁、蔡奇、丁薛祥、李希、韩正出席开班式。 新华社记者 申宏/摄

建设金融强国,必须加快构建中国特色现代金融体系。

一是科学稳健的金融调控体系。要建设现代中央银行制度,健全中国特色现代货币政策框架,完善基础货币投放和货币供应调控机制,发挥好货币信贷政策工具的总量和结构功能,有效维护人民币币值和经济金融稳定。

二是结构合理的金融市场体系。要加快建设安全、规范、透明、开放、有活力、有韧性的资本市场。发展多层次股权市场,提高上市公司质量,深化常态化退市机制。发挥好创业投资、私募股权投资支持科技创新作用,强化债券市场、货币市场、外汇市场功能。

三是分工协作的金融机构体系。我国金融机构门类齐全,关键是要错位发展、优势互补,在服务实体经济上各司其职、各展所长。各类金融机构都要坚守初心、回归本源,切实增强竞争力和服务能力,满足实体经济和人民群众多层次多样化金融服务需求。

四是完备有效的金融监管体系。全面加强金融监管,强化机构监管、行为监管、功能监管、穿透式监管、持续监管,实现监管全覆盖,切实提高监管前瞻性、精准性、协同性、有效性,构建金融安全网。

五是多样化专业性的金融产品和服务体系。加强对重大战略、重点领域、薄弱环节的优质金融服务,做好科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融5篇大文章,加快金融数字化、智能化转型。

六是自主可控、安全高效的金融基础设施体系。加强统筹规划,完善市场准入、监管标准和运营要求,提高关键金融基础设施自主水平和软硬件安全可靠性。



推动金融高质量发展、建设金融强国,要坚持法治和德治相结合,大力弘扬中华优秀传统文化,积极培育中国特色金融文化。

一要诚实守信,不逾越底线。中华优秀传统文化强调重信守诺。金融行业以信用为基础,更要坚持契约精神,恪守市场规则和职业操守。要发扬“铁算盘、铁账本、铁规章”传统,始终不做假账。坚持欠债还钱,珍惜信誉,不当老赖。要加强行业自律,对严重失信者终身禁业。
二要以义取利,不唯利是图。中华优秀传统文化强调“先义而后利者荣,先利而后义者辱”,见利忘义一向为君子所不齿。金融具有功能性和盈利性双重属性,盈利要服从功能发挥。金融行业要履行好社会责任,实现金融与经济、社会、环境共生共荣。

三要稳健审慎,不急功近利。中华优秀传统文化强调“欲速则不达,见小利则大事不成”。国际上一些金融机构能够成为百年老店,基业长青,最重要的秘诀是稳健审慎。金融行业要树立正确的经营观、业绩观和风险观,稳健审慎经营,既看当下,更看长远,不贪图短期暴利,不急躁冒进,不超越承受能力而过度冒险。
四要守正创新,不脱实向虚。关键是解决好金融为谁服务、为什么创新问题,紧紧围绕更好服务实体经济、便利人民群众推动创新,不能搞伪创新、乱创新。
五要依法合规,不胡作非为。金融运营特别讲究依法合规。金融机构和从业人员要严格遵纪守法,遵守金融监管要求,自觉在监管许可的范围内依法经营,不能靠钻法规和制度空子、规避监管来逐利,更不能撞红线、冲底线,游走于法外。
※这是习近平总书记2024年1月16日在省部级主要领导干部推动金融高质量发展专题研讨班上讲话的节录。
(责编:徐婵、刘军涛)
Read 6 tweets
Sep 7, 2025
🧵1/4 China's Equity and Currency:
Currency is likely on a meaningful but managed appreciation.
Equity is not similar to the 2015/2016 bubble/crash situation.

"Equity

Onshore A-share market has had a highly choppy streak of trading in the past two weeks with staggering volumes changing hands every trading day.  The combined market volume reached the unprecedented 3.5 trillion CNY or roughly 690 billion dollars and stayed at that high level of volume before the military parade on Sept 3.  The market is talking about “the moving of deposits”, that is, households are moving their cash deposits from banks and Wealth Management Products, WMPs, to equity on the back of bottom-low interest rates and the wealth creation effect of the equity market.

Part of the market fluctuation might have come from the chatter that the significant rise of the indices in the summer has been somewhat induced by the “National Team” for better optics before the military parade and these forces would wane down right after it, hence the profit-taking flows were particularly eager right before and after Sept 3.  All major indices retreated sharply on Sept 4 with the Startup Board shaving 5%+. But the nice rebound on Friday seemed to indicate this notion that “national team bidding up the market for good optics” was most likely just the market’s own speculation without any concrete evidence. The rebound on Friday entirely reversed the drop on the previous day; moreover, its intra-day price action was steady throughout the trading session without any major sharp spikes; it was a healthy rebound with the liquidity on sidelines buying the dip.

Market starts to be concerned about potential froth in valuation, partially from the PTSD of the speculative frenzy and its ugly aftermath in 2015.  Some observers made some points about the historical high of trading volume, the balance of margin loans (~ 2.2T CNY, roughly the same as 2015) etc. as causes of concern. These thoughts are certainly legitimate, but perhaps a bit too early.  For starters, the size of the market and the liquidity pool as well as the interest rate environment are entirely different from those of 2015.  Market valuation, even after the meaningful rise, is merely back to a level slightly above the historical average of A shares. Also, the super tight environment of external liquidity of recent years is likely to come to an end, or at the bare minimum, improve meaningfully on the margin.  Personally, I’d tend to think the very recent mini-frenzy of late Sept-Oct in 2024 serves as a fresh warning against emotional trading; it is way too recent to fade in the collective psyche of investors.  Suffice it to say -- bubbles are not produced by a cautious market.

FX

CNY is under meaningful appreciation pressure. The price action says it all – the spread between offshore USDCNH spot and onshore USDCNY has gone negative (around -30/-60 pips most of the time) and has stayed there in the past ~10 trading days.  To make it more significant, this happened on the back of continued South-Bound inflows under the Stock Connect into the Hong Kong market (which should have made USDCNH stand above onshore USDCNY, other things being equal), and the net South Bound flows registered around 110 billion HKD (~15 billion USD) in the past month. The North Bound data is no longer updated in a timely fashion, but it is fairly safe to assume it is below that under the South Bound, that is, net net, there have been visible buying flows on USDCNH.

The appreciation pressure is likely to intensify for a slew of reasons, and there is market chatter that some state-owned banks have been buying USD in both markets to slow down the rise of RMB. If this is the case, the currency issue might be one of the many topics to be discussed in the US-China trade talks and the stance of the PBOC will not show meaningful change despite weak NFPs in the US or a sharply lower YC of the treasuries, until concrete deliverables are secured in the trade talks.

The immediate path forward might be a slow strengthening streak or the RMB, with its pace just matching the forward premium of the FX swap points dictated by the interest rate differential, so that it is tricky for speculators on the currency to make an easy profit on the move.
"
2/4
Friend let me share the full private note above.

On the Chinese currency, our current internal tactical model is 25% hedged for CNH, thus also biased toward appreciation, as 50% hedged is our neutral baseline.

If PBOC guides the appreciation toward the market's expected forward rate, then due to higher interest in the US, it's tricky for currency speculators to make money. Chinese equity holders will get the currency appreciation if this happens.Image
3/4 I also think this run-up is different from the 2015/16 situation. (这次和2015那次应该不太一样)

The bank interest rate is so low now (1-2%), housing still depressed, and capital control tight, there are quite some Chinese investors who will consider some risky allocation to stocks for yield.Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 25, 2025
China Ministry of Commerce: it will crack down on those who say you could buy cheap fake high quality brand name luxury goods that’s been popular on TikTok etc.

对以所谓“代工厂”为名虚假营销、侵权假冒等违法违规线索,我们将及时移交行政执法部门依法查处。

mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nebvTXAnNecM…Image
I know those have been popular on social media

1 China wants to have a good trade deal with Europe, thus protecting mostly European lux brands makes sense.

2. China is also developing a lot of local lux brands. It didn’t help to have fake stuff for China either.
Have I bought any fake lux branded goods in China? Looking back, yes twice, but mainly for research purposes.

Just trying to see how high quality the fake lux branded goods are.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 10, 2025
🧵I agree w. the poll and think that US & China are likely to reach a deal by year end.

By not yielding, China showed its leverage. US's original plan of everyone just shut up and pay is not feasible. Both sides now are feeling the pain. /1
US has two main pains. One is financial market /2
The other is businesses facing uncertainties and don't want to invest until things get more clarity. /3
Read 11 tweets
Oct 12, 2024
Live Press Conference Link "Strengthen countercyclical adjustment of fiscal policy and promote high-quality economic development"

Min. of Finance Minister Lan and 3 heads of departments (General, Budget, Treasury 綜合司,預算司,國庫司) will do Q/A
live.baidu.com/m/media/pclive…
Ideally the press conference set expectation and deliver expectation, with slightly positive side.

The Minister of Finance worked from bottom to the top so professional ability is high.

(最好的結果是不要太超預期。

政策太好和太壞對中國這種散戶居多的市場都沒有好處。市場預期之内,稍稍好,讓大家忘記發改委的表現,就夠了。)baike.baidu.com/item/%E8%93%9D…
This article (in Chinese but google translate good enough) reviewed minister Lan’s career path.

Moved up from the lowest level since college within the ministry. The kind who has high professionalism and loyalty to move up.

mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OIXYrXskI7EX…Image
Read 20 tweets
Oct 4, 2024
I got asked several similar questions all the time. Might just answer it here.

Q: Does the Party care about the economy?

A: The Party cares about stability and staying in power. If economy helps it stay in power, then it’s important. 1/7 Image
For example, this case of a 37 year old migrant worker randomly attacked 18 people in Shanghai and killed three.

(From social media, unverified )He was owed money and tried to get his wages.

When he was at the ends of his means he had sold his cellphone and killed randomly.
Coupled this with several recent crimes where main criminals are unemployed, the Party also has urgency to do something.

But that doesn’t mean the economy is the priority. Economy is a tool for the Party.
Read 7 tweets

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