Liqian Ren Profile picture
Oct 1, 2021 9 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1. Better headline: "Will Common Prosperity Make Japan Great Again?" MJGA!😂 We have deep expertise and top indexes on Japanese equity, particularly currency hedging. Below is the list of some under appreciated things of Japanese equity.
2. Underappreciated: If US fiscal/monetary response to the pandemic is large, Japan's is even a larger share of GDP. Lay person language: money money money for the economy.
3. Our colleague reviewed how Warren Buffet's Japanese investment last September has turned out. Following Mr. Buffet, global investors have been putting money there quietly for a while. wisdomtree.com/blog/2021-05-0…
4. There's impression that Japanese companies hoard cash and pay peanuts on dividend. Data actually showed they are increasing dividend as a faster rate than many other developed countries. @JeffWeniger
5. On Corporate Governance: a new requirement that the number of independent board directors must increase from two individuals to one-third of the mix. A new requirement to publish disclosure materials in English!!! wisdomtree.com/blog/2021-08-3…
6. Digitalization will be a growth area for Japan because they are below average in spending time on the internet and spending money on digitalization by the government. h/t Clocktowers
7. Japan leads spending on R&D and is at forefront of green energy transformation.
8. Next 20 years, competition will be fierce in energy efficiency and hard tech industries. Japanese companies are in the best position to benefit on #China's push for self-reliance on hard tech and biotech.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Liqian Ren

Liqian Ren Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @liqian_ren

Sep 7
🧵1/4 China's Equity and Currency:
Currency is likely on a meaningful but managed appreciation.
Equity is not similar to the 2015/2016 bubble/crash situation.

"Equity

Onshore A-share market has had a highly choppy streak of trading in the past two weeks with staggering volumes changing hands every trading day.  The combined market volume reached the unprecedented 3.5 trillion CNY or roughly 690 billion dollars and stayed at that high level of volume before the military parade on Sept 3.  The market is talking about “the moving of deposits”, that is, households are moving their cash deposits from banks and Wealth Management Products, WMPs, to equity on the back of bottom-low interest rates and the wealth creation effect of the equity market.

Part of the market fluctuation might have come from the chatter that the significant rise of the indices in the summer has been somewhat induced by the “National Team” for better optics before the military parade and these forces would wane down right after it, hence the profit-taking flows were particularly eager right before and after Sept 3.  All major indices retreated sharply on Sept 4 with the Startup Board shaving 5%+. But the nice rebound on Friday seemed to indicate this notion that “national team bidding up the market for good optics” was most likely just the market’s own speculation without any concrete evidence. The rebound on Friday entirely reversed the drop on the previous day; moreover, its intra-day price action was steady throughout the trading session without any major sharp spikes; it was a healthy rebound with the liquidity on sidelines buying the dip.

Market starts to be concerned about potential froth in valuation, partially from the PTSD of the speculative frenzy and its ugly aftermath in 2015.  Some observers made some points about the historical high of trading volume, the balance of margin loans (~ 2.2T CNY, roughly the same as 2015) etc. as causes of concern. These thoughts are certainly legitimate, but perhaps a bit too early.  For starters, the size of the market and the liquidity pool as well as the interest rate environment are entirely different from those of 2015.  Market valuation, even after the meaningful rise, is merely back to a level slightly above the historical average of A shares. Also, the super tight environment of external liquidity of recent years is likely to come to an end, or at the bare minimum, improve meaningfully on the margin.  Personally, I’d tend to think the very recent mini-frenzy of late Sept-Oct in 2024 serves as a fresh warning against emotional trading; it is way too recent to fade in the collective psyche of investors.  Suffice it to say -- bubbles are not produced by a cautious market.

FX

CNY is under meaningful appreciation pressure. The price action says it all – the spread between offshore USDCNH spot and onshore USDCNY has gone negative (around -30/-60 pips most of the time) and has stayed there in the past ~10 trading days.  To make it more significant, this happened on the back of continued South-Bound inflows under the Stock Connect into the Hong Kong market (which should have made USDCNH stand above onshore USDCNY, other things being equal), and the net South Bound flows registered around 110 billion HKD (~15 billion USD) in the past month. The North Bound data is no longer updated in a timely fashion, but it is fairly safe to assume it is below that under the South Bound, that is, net net, there have been visible buying flows on USDCNH.

The appreciation pressure is likely to intensify for a slew of reasons, and there is market chatter that some state-owned banks have been buying USD in both markets to slow down the rise of RMB. If this is the case, the currency issue might be one of the many topics to be discussed in the US-China trade talks and the stance of the PBOC will not show meaningful change despite weak NFPs in the US or a sharply lower YC of the treasuries, until concrete deliverables are secured in the trade talks.

The immediate path forward might be a slow strengthening streak or the RMB, with its pace just matching the forward premium of the FX swap points dictated by the interest rate differential, so that it is tricky for speculators on the currency to make an easy profit on the move.
"
2/4
Friend let me share the full private note above.

On the Chinese currency, our current internal tactical model is 25% hedged for CNH, thus also biased toward appreciation, as 50% hedged is our neutral baseline.

If PBOC guides the appreciation toward the market's expected forward rate, then due to higher interest in the US, it's tricky for currency speculators to make money. Chinese equity holders will get the currency appreciation if this happens.Image
3/4 I also think this run-up is different from the 2015/16 situation. (这次和2015那次应该不太一样)

The bank interest rate is so low now (1-2%), housing still depressed, and capital control tight, there are quite some Chinese investors who will consider some risky allocation to stocks for yield.Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 25
China Ministry of Commerce: it will crack down on those who say you could buy cheap fake high quality brand name luxury goods that’s been popular on TikTok etc.

对以所谓“代工厂”为名虚假营销、侵权假冒等违法违规线索,我们将及时移交行政执法部门依法查处。

mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nebvTXAnNecM…Image
I know those have been popular on social media

1 China wants to have a good trade deal with Europe, thus protecting mostly European lux brands makes sense.

2. China is also developing a lot of local lux brands. It didn’t help to have fake stuff for China either.
Have I bought any fake lux branded goods in China? Looking back, yes twice, but mainly for research purposes.

Just trying to see how high quality the fake lux branded goods are.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 10
🧵I agree w. the poll and think that US & China are likely to reach a deal by year end.

By not yielding, China showed its leverage. US's original plan of everyone just shut up and pay is not feasible. Both sides now are feeling the pain. /1
US has two main pains. One is financial market /2
The other is businesses facing uncertainties and don't want to invest until things get more clarity. /3
Read 11 tweets
Oct 12, 2024
Live Press Conference Link "Strengthen countercyclical adjustment of fiscal policy and promote high-quality economic development"

Min. of Finance Minister Lan and 3 heads of departments (General, Budget, Treasury 綜合司,預算司,國庫司) will do Q/A
live.baidu.com/m/media/pclive…
Ideally the press conference set expectation and deliver expectation, with slightly positive side.

The Minister of Finance worked from bottom to the top so professional ability is high.

(最好的結果是不要太超預期。

政策太好和太壞對中國這種散戶居多的市場都沒有好處。市場預期之内,稍稍好,讓大家忘記發改委的表現,就夠了。)baike.baidu.com/item/%E8%93%9D…
This article (in Chinese but google translate good enough) reviewed minister Lan’s career path.

Moved up from the lowest level since college within the ministry. The kind who has high professionalism and loyalty to move up.

mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OIXYrXskI7EX…Image
Read 20 tweets
Oct 4, 2024
I got asked several similar questions all the time. Might just answer it here.

Q: Does the Party care about the economy?

A: The Party cares about stability and staying in power. If economy helps it stay in power, then it’s important. 1/7 Image
For example, this case of a 37 year old migrant worker randomly attacked 18 people in Shanghai and killed three.

(From social media, unverified )He was owed money and tried to get his wages.

When he was at the ends of his means he had sold his cellphone and killed randomly.
Coupled this with several recent crimes where main criminals are unemployed, the Party also has urgency to do something.

But that doesn’t mean the economy is the priority. Economy is a tool for the Party.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 21, 2024
🧵The Communique, the press conference, the Decision, "the Trinity" 😀 (決定裏有12個探索值得一看)

Overall just released "Decision" follows similar points, no big and bold initiatives, but 12 "explores" that's positive and explained below.
1/
politics.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0721/c…
Image
First Explore: Explore setting up personal bankruptcy system. (探索建立个人破产制度)

Probably a surprise to outsiders that China actually didn't have an easy personal bankruptcy system. So if one has a mortgage underwater, no easy way out. 2/
Second explore: Gradually increase mandatory/free educ from 9 years and beyond. (探索逐步扩大免费教育范围)
Background: ~45% Chinese students don't get to go to high school by standardized test and ended up vocational school or becoming a low skill worker.
/3
Read 15 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(