A few assumptions in my "new solution" DD for #AMC & #GME Please comment if these assumptions are wrong or need adjustment: 1- Most brokerages don't fulfill orders immediately. They keep the money / may benefit from a decline in two days or longer aka T2+. No enforcement
2- Naked shorting is legal. Synthetic shares can be created to maintain an "orderly" market. The system has no enforcement mechanism and squeeze plays that last a few days encourage such practice. MMs & shorts benefit. Type 1 synthetic shares.
3- Big money buys huge puts, MMs create synthetic shares & sell them while they dont have any shares & / no shares available (Type 2 synthetic shrs) MMs purchase it cheaper later MM benefit more from deflation. Big money shorts as much as they want. burden on MMs => option fukry
4- Payment for order flow, legally enables MMs and clearing houses (and in worst case when an entity is both like Citadel) to mark the orders /short/ long / keep them for a few days or longer/ package and repackage/ dark pool. No enforcement
5- The real short interest is hidden. No way of knowing the real number regardless of what service you are subscribed to ie Ortex or S3. It's an honor system and we should NOT expect say Citadel to provide the real SI numbers to exchanges. No enforcement
6- Market Makers don't pay for option rollover. They can kick the can down the road. Thus, synthetic shares have no expiration date. No enforcement mechanism. They make so much money off this, its not worth it for them pushing it too far.
7- Funds can create divorced puts (some call it married puts) to create third type of synthetic shares (this is the illegal synthetic/naked shorting) borrowed, lend & sold multiple times. There is no checks & balances to distinguish real shares from fake => high Dark pool volume.
(1/5) A few important notes on #AMC 1- The bull trend is being tested but not broken. A few more days on this trend and we cross a major resistance 2- Even if price drops bellow it nothing changes. The main strategy of buy and hold still applies. It only delays MOASS a little
(2/5) 3- The late day price action was an option game to collect premiums & had nothing to do with shorts & short interest but MMs 4- Volume is dry and slight buying pressure moves the price up because ape dont sell 5- Day traders have been kept out and that is a very good thing
(3/5) 6- AMC shares are with diamond hands now. literary no one wants to sell after waiting for months. 7- Take the shares of diamond hands out of the float & the "official" short interest % of float will be above 200%. Unofficial % is much higher
As a data analyst #AMC ape it was my duty to do my part: The true value of current shares including synthetic shares falls within this range: ~1.5B to ~5.5B with 99% confidence (1% chance the true number falls outside this range). See thread below for data and method. (1/13)
I extrapolated the number of #AMC synthetic shares using advanced statistical software based on the recent SAY shareholder vote and 3 indicators: Sample size, variability in population, & confidence level. (2/13)
Assumptions: a) 63,000 retail investors voted (not randomized so it might be biased & we should control for that- e.g. people with more shares had more tendency to vote).
b) 68,000,000 shares voted for Timothy B (first question)
c) 4,100,000 retail investors exist (3/13)