Im finding it very hard to not get extremely bullish about the next few months. Almost every crypto chart looks coiled and ready for a big move after months of consolidation. Here are the two charts that matter to me right now:
This is total market cap. It is likely ready to move from 2 standard deviation oversold vs trend to overbought. That looks to me that the entire space can 3x into year end and 6x into next year ( I think the cycle extends).
The outright chart of market cap is ludicrously bullish once it crossed $900m in market cap and will be an acceleration point. Wave 3 in technical analysis term ushered in by this giant cup and handle/wedge.
Almost every chart of every crypto looks equally coiled, even the small, under appreciated projects.
Writing GMI currently and doing work on all of this and this set up for the acceleration phase is as good as I have ever seen.
Buckle up and good luck.
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Things are happening so fast, and with such quantum leaps in NFT world, that I am struggling to get to grips with it, let alone all of the projects and breakthroughs.
1/
I totally get it at a relatively superficial conceptual level but the cultural depths and societal implications are something Im trying to catch up with but I know its bigger than Im imagining.
The issue for me is that is all feels like a closed group of those in the know
And the rest of us feel like we have our nose pressed up again the windows, looking it at everyone having a great time.
If you are not on Discord, and in the "in" crowd you literally have no idea how to approach this. Im not on Discord.
Im watching with fascination the Hive Mind @RealVisionBot crypto portfolio based on community-only weightings. It has consistently outperformed the market. My view is that community is smarter than any individual as we all have access to quality information. 1/
We see the same in the @RealVisionBot Macro portfolio. The Hive Mind tends to outperform...This is the community survey. The Bot portfolio is a quant model based on the Experts on Real Vision.
I have a strongly held view that the traditional view of markets - "give your money to experts" has now changed into "Together, we are the experts" as the movement towards Web 3.0 and communities with open access to information has super-empowered community decision making.
Just because perspective is useful for everyone... this is ETH 2021 vs BTC 2017
And here is BTC 2021 vs BTC 2013
Solana is also following ETH in 2017 (haven't got the chart to hand - if anyone has it pls add it).
These are all priced according to Metcalfe's Law hence why they are so similar to previous periods. The super high correlation is just spooky however... but a useful framework.
Listening to Gensler and it's clear he is laying down the hardest case he can for regulation of digital assets. But my view is that he will likely get his way that most are going to be classified as securities but with a wholesale change to what that means 1/
It's like then the internet started to gain real traction, the authorities tired to impose harsh rules but in the end, there had to be a grand compromise to not stifle something very important indeed.
That decision led to trillions of dollars of new capital creation and the largest investment inflows into the US in history. The innovation that was seeded from light touch regulation of the internet changed the world, with the US as leader.
Humour me, let's just imagine that QE does actually debase a currency then it surely would have effects something very much like this... (SPX vs Fed Balance Sheet).
Over the longer run, since QE started it would probably look something like this if the currency was being debased...
If money was being debased then Real Estate would also most likely follow the increase in the central bank balance sheet...
I have opinions in global macro that I'm happy to share because I worked out I've done around 100,000 hours of work on it over 31 years. I also know I am wildly wrong sometimes (and more than I'd wish) but if I have a relative superpower, I get the long-term stuff pretty right.
But sometimes I've screw that up too - starting an agricultural commodities hedge fund in 2007 was a classic. I didn't understand the impact of technology and prices are down 50% since then. Duh!
There is always something we think we understand but we really don't.
Successful macro investing is all about holding ones view in your head and endlessly assessing the probabilities that you are wrong, without freaking out.
Dogma is the death of investing, as is view paralysis. The other bad one is excessive risk aversion or seeking.