Humour me, let's just imagine that QE does actually debase a currency then it surely would have effects something very much like this... (SPX vs Fed Balance Sheet).
Over the longer run, since QE started it would probably look something like this if the currency was being debased...
If money was being debased then Real Estate would also most likely follow the increase in the central bank balance sheet...
And normally, when currencies are debased (and the public doesn't yet realize it), wages tend to not rise and thus assets versus wages get really really expensive...(and CPI inflation can't rise).
Eventually, anyone who doesn't own scarce assets will realize that they have been totally fucked, If an asset is stored future wealth for consumption, they have gotten a LOT poorer through no fault of their own.
This process can happen slowly enough that people dont realize it
I have spend since 2008 pondering what QE means and I have gone from "It increases risk taking" to "its a passing pavlovian response by investors" to "Fuck, they really are debasing fiat currency globally to avoid a debt crisis".
It sounds kind of crazy. I get that.
It's hard, because to believe in debasement is to believe that the social contract has been torn up and its the governments vs the people in whoever goes bust.
It is just too far fetched but the evidence is simply overwhelming. I have written hundreds of pages in coming to this.
Hence why I posted this yesterday to help you realize it too...
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I have opinions in global macro that I'm happy to share because I worked out I've done around 100,000 hours of work on it over 31 years. I also know I am wildly wrong sometimes (and more than I'd wish) but if I have a relative superpower, I get the long-term stuff pretty right.
But sometimes I've screw that up too - starting an agricultural commodities hedge fund in 2007 was a classic. I didn't understand the impact of technology and prices are down 50% since then. Duh!
There is always something we think we understand but we really don't.
Successful macro investing is all about holding ones view in your head and endlessly assessing the probabilities that you are wrong, without freaking out.
Dogma is the death of investing, as is view paralysis. The other bad one is excessive risk aversion or seeking.
One day, when I have time and an army of interns, I’m going to map out on a big wall all of @RudyHavenstein threads from the genesis tweet. If you aren’t following closely you’ll miss that this account is a work of complex literary art woven around multiple narrative arcs 1/
The interwoven threads include a caustic commentary of the corrupting of the financial system, lack of accountability of bankers in 2008, Epstein’s full story, mixed in with art like the epic Fugazzi! and Bridgewater Sausage threads, multi-genre music threads and sub-threads. 2/
There are so many threads on going at any time, some lie dormant for years and come back to life. Rudy somehow keeps on top of it all and accesses relevant parts from years back and brings them back out, drawing people back into the depth of content created and all the various
What I really don't get about Tether fears is this:
Let's say its right and Tether implodes to zero. What happens to Bitcoin or digital assets? Down 30% immediately? down 50%? down 60% down 80%?
Ok. Well, we just did that (many tokens were down 80%) and guess what? 1/
2/ Life went on. Nothing happened.
If fact, crypto markets do a -70% pretty often and guess what, nothing happens and adoption keeps rising.
When I first learned about Bitfinex's issues BTC was at 6,100. It could now fall 80% and still not hit that.
3/ We all get it but no one here has found a new source of risk the market didn't know.
It has been talked about for 4 years - the people involved! Deltec! the illicit use! the backing isn't 1:1 in cash in a vault guarded by Rottweilers! regulators! blah blah blah blah blah