Share this page!

Raoul Pal Profile picture
Twitter logo
25 Sep, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Just because perspective is useful for everyone... this is ETH 2021 vs BTC 2017
And here is BTC 2021 vs BTC 2013
Solana is also following ETH in 2017 (haven't got the chart to hand - if anyone has it pls add it).

These are all priced according to Metcalfe's Law hence why they are so similar to previous periods. The super high correlation is just spooky however... but a useful framework.
WAGMI.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Raoul Pal

Raoul Pal Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal Profile picture
26 Sep
Im watching with fascination the Hive Mind @RealVisionBot crypto portfolio based on community-only weightings. It has consistently outperformed the market. My view is that community is smarter than any individual as we all have access to quality information. 1/ Image
We see the same in the @RealVisionBot Macro portfolio. The Hive Mind tends to outperform...This is the community survey. The Bot portfolio is a quant model based on the Experts on Real Vision. Image
I have a strongly held view that the traditional view of markets - "give your money to experts" has now changed into "Together, we are the experts" as the movement towards Web 3.0 and communities with open access to information has super-empowered community decision making.
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
21 Sep
Listening to Gensler and it's clear he is laying down the hardest case he can for regulation of digital assets. But my view is that he will likely get his way that most are going to be classified as securities but with a wholesale change to what that means 1/
It's like then the internet started to gain real traction, the authorities tired to impose harsh rules but in the end, there had to be a grand compromise to not stifle something very important indeed.
That decision led to trillions of dollars of new capital creation and the largest investment inflows into the US in history. The innovation that was seeded from light touch regulation of the internet changed the world, with the US as leader.
Read 16 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
29 Aug
Humour me, let's just imagine that QE does actually debase a currency then it surely would have effects something very much like this... (SPX vs Fed Balance Sheet).
Over the longer run, since QE started it would probably look something like this if the currency was being debased...
If money was being debased then Real Estate would also most likely follow the increase in the central bank balance sheet...
Read 8 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
29 Aug
I have opinions in global macro that I'm happy to share because I worked out I've done around 100,000 hours of work on it over 31 years. I also know I am wildly wrong sometimes (and more than I'd wish) but if I have a relative superpower, I get the long-term stuff pretty right.
But sometimes I've screw that up too - starting an agricultural commodities hedge fund in 2007 was a classic. I didn't understand the impact of technology and prices are down 50% since then. Duh!

There is always something we think we understand but we really don't.
Successful macro investing is all about holding ones view in your head and endlessly assessing the probabilities that you are wrong, without freaking out.

Dogma is the death of investing, as is view paralysis. The other bad one is excessive risk aversion or seeking.
Read 10 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
20 Aug
I still see many people still calling crypto a bubble and thus it is unsustainable. I mean the price rise looks pretty crazy...
The same with tech stocks and their "overvaluation"....
I remember personally saying the same about Amazon, pretty much since inception.
Read 8 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
14 Aug
One day, when I have time and an army of interns, I’m going to map out on a big wall all of @RudyHavenstein threads from the genesis tweet. If you aren’t following closely you’ll miss that this account is a work of complex literary art woven around multiple narrative arcs 1/
The interwoven threads include a caustic commentary of the corrupting of the financial system, lack of accountability of bankers in 2008, Epstein’s full story, mixed in with art like the epic Fugazzi! and Bridgewater Sausage threads, multi-genre music threads and sub-threads. 2/
There are so many threads on going at any time, some lie dormant for years and come back to life. Rudy somehow keeps on top of it all and accesses relevant parts from years back and brings them back out, drawing people back into the depth of content created and all the various
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @RaoulGMI has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @RaoulGMI!

Read all threads by @RaoulGMI

:(