I have opinions in global macro that I'm happy to share because I worked out I've done around 100,000 hours of work on it over 31 years. I also know I am wildly wrong sometimes (and more than I'd wish) but if I have a relative superpower, I get the long-term stuff pretty right.
But sometimes I've screw that up too - starting an agricultural commodities hedge fund in 2007 was a classic. I didn't understand the impact of technology and prices are down 50% since then. Duh!
There is always something we think we understand but we really don't.
There is always something we think we understand but we really don't.
Successful macro investing is all about holding ones view in your head and endlessly assessing the probabilities that you are wrong, without freaking out.
Dogma is the death of investing, as is view paralysis. The other bad one is excessive risk aversion or seeking.
Dogma is the death of investing, as is view paralysis. The other bad one is excessive risk aversion or seeking.
Also, if you over complicate analysis, or over analyze, you will more than likely fail in that bet or in investing overall.
I've done that too.
Simplicity of view, more often than not gives better results.
To keep you on the straight and narrow, a chart helps massively.
I've done that too.
Simplicity of view, more often than not gives better results.
To keep you on the straight and narrow, a chart helps massively.
We all have different views.
That is good and what makes a market.
Accept those views and don't feel that you have to defend them as a system of honor. It isn't.
That is good and what makes a market.
Accept those views and don't feel that you have to defend them as a system of honor. It isn't.
The only religion in investing are your results.
Worship those, not your ideas.
Respect other views (but filter out the noise and learn how to assess when not to filter it out - its very hard but vital).
And just be nice to people who have different views or have been wrong.
Worship those, not your ideas.
Respect other views (but filter out the noise and learn how to assess when not to filter it out - its very hard but vital).
And just be nice to people who have different views or have been wrong.
You will have egg on your face too and people need to accept that part of investing is being wrong... a lot.
Fintwit is full of armchair experts. Ignore them. They haven't done the work. They just have "opinions".
Do the hard work and also question what you think you know.
Fintwit is full of armchair experts. Ignore them. They haven't done the work. They just have "opinions".
Do the hard work and also question what you think you know.
If you can't explain it in a few sentences, most likely you are wrong.
If you think you are the genius who figured it all out because it is complex and requires deep knowledge of the financial plumbing or the vol structure, you are almost certainly wrong (done that too).
If you think you are the genius who figured it all out because it is complex and requires deep knowledge of the financial plumbing or the vol structure, you are almost certainly wrong (done that too).
If it is super fucking obvious and simple, but you have joined the dots faster than most and even your weird cousin can understand it in one short WhatsApp, then its likely a home run.
Raoul's Golden Rule
If you think your shit smell of roses, you are about to get your face rubbed in it.
Same applies if you think you are intellectually smarter than everyone. You will have a bonfire of the vanities.
Be humble, do the work, keep it simple. BE NICE.
Go get it
If you think your shit smell of roses, you are about to get your face rubbed in it.
Same applies if you think you are intellectually smarter than everyone. You will have a bonfire of the vanities.
Be humble, do the work, keep it simple. BE NICE.
Go get it
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