Thread by @ThreshedThought

The media has moved on from Afghanistan. But what is really going on there now?

There are a few dynamics going on which bear some inspection.

Firstly, and most importantly, there is something close to an economic collapse and a humanitarian crisis. There is some aid getting in (e.g. @WHO 14tns of supplies for 10k families) but it is a drop in the ocean compared to what is needed.

This is a real disaster unfolding and could easily cause the country and region to destabilise further. On top of this the Talibs have no money and can’t even pay their people. Taken together these are the number one issue.

The conflict is still continuing - either directly between IS & the Talibs (eg bombs & assassinations in Jalalabad & Kabul recently), or indirectly in the form of Talibs persecuting either former government people, or groups like the Hazaras. The latter stores up future trouble.

By conflict, of course, I mean the continuing 43 year civil war over land, water, feuds, positions of power, etc.

This, coupled with factionalism within the Taliban movement (see also lack of pay above), is another huge destabilising factor.

And this persecution of individuals and groups is linked to another factor - the fact that the Talib government doesn’t represent the country. It is basically centred on a few small branches of the Pashtun, a small number of provinces, and in the case of the Haqqanis, a family.

History tells us that you can’t govern Afghanistan without spreading power around. Everyone is armed, and all the surrounding countries and great powers have clients in the country and so if you don’t include, you invite resistance.

Which brings me onto my final bucket of issues: Afghanistan’s regional landscape.

Everyone is in a bit of a pickle because no-one was expecting the last gov to collapse so quickly.

And there are a lot of surrounding countries that have buyer’s remorse with the Talibs esp. Russia, Iran, Pak and China.

These countries all supported the Taliban to give the US a bloody nose (and to clear India out of Afg in the case of Pak). But now they are left holding the baby, and they don’t like it.

Paradoxically they would rather the US were there dealing with Afg than they have to do it, or worse, much worse, a regional rival steps in. Eg for Russia it’s a disaster that China gains influence, for Iran that Pak gains influence etc.

At least with the US (et al) the regional counties knew where they were.

But now they are left dealing with it (I think Biden is a fan of real politique and this was his plan) and it turns out they all have different interests that will be hard to meld into a whole.

Eg Uzbekistan is focussed on trade and the TAPI gas pipeline, Iran on water and drugs, China on the uighurs and BRI, Pak on India and TTP, Tajikistan v anti taliban, etc. They all want something different.

Except of course counter terrorism which they all agree on. But the terrorists are, quite literally, now the Afghan government. (At the moment they agree on not recognising the Talibs as well.)

And the only show in town to meld some sort of regional consensus is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), esp now Iran is joining. But they can only really agree on counter terrorism, so their members may end up going their own way.

Which doesn’t bode well for Afg. Read up the thread: humanitarian issues, continued factional conflict in the country and the Taliban movement, and regional countries going their own way in the country. How long till Afghanistan spins apart again?