3) If a short trade = needs to be below 200-day
If a long trade = needs to be above 200-day
Find 3 text-book trades / chart pattern setups
This is a weekly scale price chart and the moving average is 40 week period (200-day)
Answers format:
Pattern name/completed year
Great stuff. The third pattern is open for discussion but as you can see from the possibilities of ascending triangle, cup & handle or H&S continuation, all of them has similar price projections and bullish implications.
Here is my labelling.
The criticism you will hear: well its always easier to tell things in hindsight.
You will never know if a trade will be successful even if you identify the pattern in a correct way.
We are trying to increase the probability of success slightly by picking right setups
So let's look at one recent setup.
Weekly scale price charts I review them with 5 years of data.
The minute I open the chart my eye is fixated to the area right of the dashed line.
What pattern do you see?
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Define a research universe 500, 1000 names... depends on your time dedicated for market research each day & weekend.
Make sure you go through the same list every single day.
What you miss earlier you might capture later.
You see the development of price charts better
Open each chart with the same template. Don't go into style drift by saying: Hmm.. let me see what X indicator is doing or let me go into hourly chart etc.
You have 1hr (or how much it takes to finish the list you have built) to finish the work and move off the screen.
Before you finalize, see if any pattern fit your criteria. Save those to a separate folder and review them the next day first thing after the market close. That's your watchlist.
(2) Symmetrical triangle formed right below the 200-day average. Breakout took place at the same price level which I call inflection point. When such condition is met, it is a high conviction setup for me.
(3) Breakout took place with a gap opening. This was a clear breakaway gap as explained by Schabacker.
Breakout took place above the 200-day average and it was a change in trend as well. A significant technical development.
Richard Schabacker - Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits on Gaps...
I incorporate breakaway gaps into my analysis as I mainly trade breakouts. Breakaway gaps will appear at the time of breakout through the pattern boundary.
If after a breakout your position is holding its gains and not turning negative (no challenge of pattern boundary), chances are high the move will extend way beyond the price objective.
In such cases employ a trend following tool to capture more of the uptrend.