Thread by @nicktolhurst

Some context for British people on N. Ireland:

1. Over the last 25 years the Unionist vote in Northern Ireland has gradually declined from 51% to now circa 44%.

Regardless whether N Ireland stays in UK for the next decade it's now no longer, in any sense, a "unionist province".

While religion is certainly not a "100% determinator of N irish political identity" it's still a useful gauge of demographic trends:

2. The only demographic with more Protestants than Catholics are the over 50s.
The average working age person in Northern Ireland is a Catholic.

3. In 1983, almost 90% of Northern Ireland's MPs were unionist.

The last election (2019) marked the 1st time unionists no longer formed a majority of N Irish seats at Westminister.

4. The last Northern Irish Assembly election (2017) marked the 1st time unionists gained less than 50% of N Irish seats (election is by strict proportional representation).

Whats clear now is that regardless of N Ireland's constitutional status it is now a province with more Catholics than Protestants, more nationalists than unionists.

The Gerrymandered state is over.

Its over.

What comes next...

The existence of N Ireland in UK will thus increasingly be dependent on the consent of those "who do not consider their identity as unionist".

Given this the only possible way for UK govt to maintain a hold on N Ireland is to aim its policies at N Irish swing "other" voters.

This swing ("Other") vote in N Ireland is non sectarian, pro European & socially liberal with an ambiguous position on constitutional arrangements.

If UK govt serious on maintaining N Ireland within UK its only hope is making continued UK membership compatible with the above.

Since 2016 UK govts have done the opposite by doubling down on:
Hard Unionism
Anti europeanism
Coalition with the DUP

This can only mean 1 of 2 things:
UK Govt has:

1. Given up on keeping N Ireland & uses it merely now for short term political gains

2. No idea about N Ireland