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John Pfaff Profile picture
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4 Oct, 10 tweets, 3 min read
Lately on here, some people have widely cited saying the FBI's data for the claim that while homicides rose, violent crime fell.

Overall violence ROSE in 2020, per the FBI.

What the headlines said was "major" crime fell. That's Index violent AND property.
The total violent crime rate rose by about 5%. The total property crime rate fell by 8%.

And there are 5x as many reported property crimes as violent (6.5M vs. 1.3M). So property drove the decline.
More nuanced:

reported homicide (+30%) and aggravated assault (+12%) rose, while reported robbery (-9%) and rape (-12%) fell.

But aggravated assaults are 72% of all reported violent crimes, so "violent crime" basically just means "agg assault."
Anyway, just another blow to the efforts by some progressive reformers to downplay what happened in 2020.

Violent crime went up, because aggravated assaults went up. Homicides went up too, but at ~3% of all violent crimes, its change doesn't move the overall needle.
None of this necessarily rebukes reform efforts.

But it means that reformers really, really need to stop trying to downplay the numbers and instead push on how they argue FOR reforms.
And, shameless-plug time, I do have a few thoughts on how to do that: newrepublic.com/article/162634…
Will add one last thing for those who, luckily, are not mired in our nation's crime stats:

It's important to appreciate what we are talking abt when we talk about "crime."

It's just seven offenses: murder/manslaughter, rape, robbery, agg assault, burglary, larceny, car theft.
These are clearly the most important crimes, but there are lots of crimes they miss.

For example, in 2020, FBI says we made ~480,000 arrests for those four violent crimes... and over 900,000 for simple assault (which isn't measured in "crimes reported").
This is a fair correction: we HAVE the data on simple assaults, it's just never put in the main reports.

Though I also bet it's one where "being seen by a cop" plays a much bigger role than "being reported to a cop."

So while reported aggravated assaults rose by ~100,000 from 2019 to 2020 (and arrests stayed totally flat, which... interesting), arrests for simple assault fell by ~100,000.

Not apples-to-apples, esp given... 2020... but a reminder that "crime" is missing out on lots of stuff.

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More from @JohnFPfaff

John Pfaff Profile picture
4 Oct
I feel like there's almost nothing said about how between 1980 and 1984, homicide fell by over 20%, robbery by almost 20%, agg assault by 7%,* and rape by 3%.

We have a good theory abt a major reversal of the declines, but the decline itself goes unremarked upon.
Like, if crack hadn't arrived, would that decline have continued? Given that the Great Crime Decline began just five years later, find it hard to think it's some sort of cohort-age artifact.

Did crack interrupt something already started? Making 1991 a dubious start date?
I mean, property crime declined over almost that entire period. Declines were happening.

But if the Great Crime Decline is really something that started in 1980 with a crack interruption in 1984, that throws off, like, a TON of stuff, right? (I see you, lead and abortion and...)
Read 8 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
30 Sep
From 1960-80, annual murders rose ~14K, from ~9K to ~23K, and we invested SO MUCH in prisons and punishment in response.

From 1999-2019, drug OD deaths rose by ~54K, from ~17K to ~71K. Prelim CDC data says ODs will jump ~20K JUST in 2020.

Nowhere near the political response.
Both target the young--from 1999-2019, those under 40 account for ~80% of the years of life lost to homicide, and ~60% of years of life lost to drug overdoses.

But drug ODs cost those under 40 1.34 million years of life lost, vs. 650K for homicide. More than twice as much.
To be clear, homicide has collateral costs that drug ODs do not--like the recent paper that simply hearing a gunshot within a few blocks does real harms to children.

But both are sudden and traumatic and tear apart families' lives.
Read 5 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
29 Sep
The use of a acquitted conduct at sentencing actually strikes me as a legally tricky issue that raises intriguing questions.

Why is it (Fed) constitutionally okay? Because the burdens of proof are different at trial than sentencing, and “acquitted” doesn’t mean “innocent.”
For guilt/innocence, state gotta prove everything beyond a reasonable doubt. But for sentencing, the (constitutional) rules mostly go away (30,000-tweet thread on Blakely omitted here).

Totally fine to, say, sentence based on something found by a preponderance.

So: “acquitted.”
“Acquitted” doesn’t = “innocent.” It means “not proven beyond a reasonable doubt.”

Over course of trial, judge may come to think ~60% likely def is guilty. That’s not BRD, but it is preponderance.

So okay for sentencing, given our rules.
Read 5 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
28 Sep
I've seen a bunch of tweets today abt how we spend $x per person on Rikers.

That's not how jail/prison finance math works. At Rikers, think ~90% of spending is wages and benefits. Which means total spending is fairly insensitive to population, and it isn't "going to" detainees.
It also means as jail pops fall, spending-per-person-in-jail will almost axiomatically rise, because unless we lay off staff, we'll be spending the same amount, just... per fewer ppl held there.

It's important to stop talking abt jail/prison spending in "per detainee" terms.
Talking about "spending per person in jail/prison" misleads ppl abt where the money is going (wages, not programming), and also means we grossly overstate the savings we hope for when cutting back prison/jail pops (since total spending won't move absent LABOR, not pop, cuts).
Read 4 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
27 Sep
Bears repeating today: reformers gain nothing by trying to downplay the homicide spike.

Homicide spiked. A lot.

Yes, not to historic highs. But it was the biggest one-year jump. And it'd have been a huge % change in 1993 too.

Denying this plays into the status quo's hands.
To argue "overall violent crime" fell is almost a literal "... but other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"

Yes, homicide makes up ~3% of all violent crimes. But it is the most emotional and politically salient of all. By far.

If homicide spiked, "crime rose."
To try to downplay this is to give the status quo EXACTLY what it wants.

It suggests that reforms are a luxury to be indulged in only when crime is low--not smarter, better ways to reduce harm.

It betrays a lack of confidence, confidence reformers should have.
Read 5 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
24 Sep
Intriguing data point of the night.

In 2016 Survey of Prison Inmates, of those serving time for a VIOLENT crime that is NOT homicide or rape:

• 62% claim NO ONE was physically hurt
• 21% admit serious injury (death/rape/stab/shot/broken bones)
• 17% admit minor injury
According to the BJS prisoner count, there are ~350,000 ppl in for violence other than rape or homicide (SPI-16 est is 375K, so... close).

That would be over 200,000 ppl in prison for violence who claim to have hurt no one.

Further complicates "violence" as a category.
Of course, these are self-reports, which are always noisy and messy.

Still, even if we assume some desire to downplay harms, still suggests many in prison for violence didn't cause physical harm (betting a lot are robberies).

(Of course, psych/emotional harm matters too.)
Read 6 tweets

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