I feel like there's almost nothing said about how between 1980 and 1984, homicide fell by over 20%, robbery by almost 20%, agg assault by 7%,* and rape by 3%.
We have a good theory abt a major reversal of the declines, but the decline itself goes unremarked upon.
We have a good theory abt a major reversal of the declines, but the decline itself goes unremarked upon.
Like, if crack hadn't arrived, would that decline have continued? Given that the Great Crime Decline began just five years later, find it hard to think it's some sort of cohort-age artifact.
Did crack interrupt something already started? Making 1991 a dubious start date?
Did crack interrupt something already started? Making 1991 a dubious start date?
I mean, property crime declined over almost that entire period. Declines were happening.
But if the Great Crime Decline is really something that started in 1980 with a crack interruption in 1984, that throws off, like, a TON of stuff, right? (I see you, lead and abortion and...)
But if the Great Crime Decline is really something that started in 1980 with a crack interruption in 1984, that throws off, like, a TON of stuff, right? (I see you, lead and abortion and...)
Has there been anything written on this? Feel like every account starts the decline in 1991, which is at one level is literally true. But ... 1980-84 is intriguing.
(* Agg assault bottoms out in 1983, not 1984. That's the footnote above.)
(* Agg assault bottoms out in 1983, not 1984. That's the footnote above.)
So one more detail. Homicides rise until 1980... as do the number of agencies reporting the FBI. When that levels out... violence falls (until 1985).
Don't perhaps oversell this--the agencies coming on-line were likely smaller ones. But... still:
Don't perhaps oversell this--the agencies coming on-line were likely smaller ones. But... still:
It's hard to look at the "more agencies reporting" graphs and the "FBI crime data moves up while victimization data moves down" graphs and not think that that has to be at least PART of the story.
Even though I feel like it is almost never part of the story told.
Even though I feel like it is almost never part of the story told.
That doesn't mean that the "rising crime sparked mass incarceration" story is wrong, just that it is missing a word:
"rising REPORTED crime sparked...." The reporting, and perhaps how we thought about it, is real. Just... what it was reporting is... more confusing.
"rising REPORTED crime sparked...." The reporting, and perhaps how we thought about it, is real. Just... what it was reporting is... more confusing.
Every day I increasingly doubt that I know anything at all about anything. Today has been a day that really helped solidify that feeling.
And that graph abt agencies is from this great @JacobKaplanCrim book: ucrbook.com/county-level-u…
And that graph abt agencies is from this great @JacobKaplanCrim book: ucrbook.com/county-level-u…
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