To be fair, along with China, New Zealand may be the only #ZeroCovid country where this policy may prove to have been the right choice. (I guess it will depend on how they manage the exit.) I just don't think it could have been replicated in Europe or the US.
What's crazy is that many people pushed for this #ZeroCovid nonsense in places where it probably could never have worked and at a time when, even if it could have worked earlier, that boat had already sailed a long time ago.
Hence all the nonsense in Europe at the beginning of the year about how we just needed to do a 4-week long hard lockdown and we'd reach the #ZeroCovid paradise because people took seriously ridiculous models that systematically and massively fail.
The people who peddled this stupid shit, such as the neoliberal morons, would like us to memory hole this episode, but I remember and I'm not going to forget anytime soon, because I want to make sure that I never ever again trust them on any topic I have not looked into myself.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
My new crazy idea that will definitely not go wrong and destroy most of life on earth is that we should genetically engineer plankton to make them resistant to infection by viruses that break them down and results in the release of CO2 in the atmosphere. researchgate.net/publication/76…
Note that if we did that and it worked, not only could we continue to use fossil fuel that release CO2, but we'd *have* to continue to release CO2 in the atmosphere even if we no longer need to for energy since otherwise it would eventually deplete CO2 from the atmosphere.
So we'd basically go from worrying about how we are burning too much fossil fuel to worrying about we might cause a new ice age if we don't burn enough of it. We'd come up with schemes to subsidize carbon instead of taxing it. Imagine how it would fuck with people's brains 😂
Those results highlights a problem with the "vaccine efficacy" metric, which is that it decreases with exposure, even when exposure is the same for vaccinated and unvaccinated people. So the exact same vaccine will come out as more or less "effective" in different contexts.
Suppose that conditional on exposure the probability that a vaccinated person gets infected is 5% and that it's 50% for unvaccinated people. Now consider a group of 200 people, half of whom are vaccinated and the other half are not.
In that case, you would expect 50 people in the unvaccinated group and 5 people in the vaccinated group to get infected, which puts vaccine efficacy at (50 - 5) / 50 = 90%. Sounds pretty good!
I think the conflict with China is stupid and I'd be glad if we stayed out of it, so I don't care that France was excluded from the regional security partnership between the US and Australia, what pisses me off is that this betrayal won't fundamentally affect our foreign policy.
That's why the French government's histrionics at the moment are so embarrassing. There is no point in putting on that show if, in the end, you just go back to business as usual, which is almost certainly what's going to happen. Draw some concrete lessons or shut the fuck up.
The truth is that we have aligned ourselves with the US against our interests time and time again and we're going to continue to do so even after our so-called allies have openly fucked us. I hope that I'm being too pessimistic about this, but I seriously doubt it.
I must have missed the part where Russia pretended to be our ally, only to snatch a multi-billion dollars contract that was already signed from us and exclude us from the new regional security partnership that resulted from the steal, but it could also be that I have a brain 🤷♂️
People actually pay this guy, probably a lot, to explain international politics to them. No wonder we keep doing stupid shit when this is the kind of moron that passes as an "expert" these days.
Lmao, the sophisticates spent the entire Trump's presidency whining about how he was destroying the US relationship with your allies, but now Biden is openly fucking us and this guy is like "how come you didn't recall your ambassador under Orange Man Bad?"
Milley's actions, which objectively border on treason, are cast in a heroic light in this piece, but this passage is pretty revealing about the kind of things he and his friends were *really* afraid of, even though I have no doubt they believe their own bullshit.
From day 1, the military has railroaded Trump into doing the opposite of what he'd pledged to do (greatly helped in that by Trump's own incompetence), effectively subverting the democratic will, but we're supposed to believe they're democracy's saviors 🙃 axios.com/off-the-rails-…
Every time Trump tried to withdraw using the normal channels, they have managed to railroad him (which again is partly Trump's fault but has happened to every other president so it's not just his incompetence), but Milley is shocked when Trump tries to do it behind his back 😂