1/ Private Equity Investment As A Divining Rod For Market Failure: Policy Responses To Harmful Physician Practice Acquisitions

This is an important, thoughtful piece.

HT @LorenAdler
2/ As the title implies, the best way to think about the problem is that Private Equity points the way towards every opportunity for outsized financial gains, especially where there is arbitrage, or market failures.

PE investors use the word "rents" in a positive way
3/ As @brianwpowers @WillShrank have pointed out, if you create outsized opportunities in new payment models, private capital can accelerated that too

Though IMO they undersell the degree to which PE-backed groups in MA tend to focus on...risk adjustment

4/ The Brookings team acknowledges that PE is not necessarily worse than payers or hospitals when it comes to taking advantage of arbitrage.

We've seen plenty of that

(My favorite explanation for persistent belief in "Medicare cost shifting" -- "non profit hospitals are lazy")
5/ I know that for normal people, venture capital is private equity too, but in practice their incentives and strategies are completely different.

VCs fund startups, and you can't count on arbitrage/loopholes staying open for the time it takes to get to scale ("regulatory risk")
6/ my view is that attempts to target PE ownership specifically won't work, and could be distracting from the more important (and difficult) task of prying incumbents away from a status quo that bestows rent upon them.

Good policy = aligning private profit & public good
7/ I haven't thought about this enough, but if the problem is PE firms exploiting loopholes for short term gains and flipping it to the next player within 3 year investment window, a logical solution would be to increase the duration needed for them to realize long term cap gains

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More from @Farzad_MD

26 Sep
This is actually an answerable question.

Does case severity drop during times when there are lots of open hospital beds?

Seems like a good episode of @DrBapuPod @AnupamBJena
Can we measure "likely unnecessary admissions" somehow?
...and to be clear, I am not sympathetic to the idea that we should somehow minimize the terrible negative impact of covid on hospitals and ICUs being full
Read 4 tweets
15 Aug
1) Private Equity and Health Care Delivery by @brianwpowers @WillShrank @AmolNavathe

💯 Agree private equity isn't inherently good or bad "acts to amplify the response to extant financial incentives"

A couple of further points though....

ja.ma/3m6K6FU @JAMA_current
2) it's true that good policy can align private profit with public good, but if we are going to rely on that, need tight surveillance and fast response from regulators to close arbitrage opportunities where short-term profit maximizers will gather. c/f surprise billing
3/ if you wait too long, then entrenched profits become normalized, powerful incumbents are formed, and they can, and will, exert political influence to keep the "status quo" in place.

Many health policy examples (facility fees, drug pricing). But also...Medicare Advantage 👀
Read 12 tweets
31 Jul
1/ Here's another quiz for budding epidemiologists

The Guandong Delta outbreak was meticulously investigated. Initial report of 1000x viral load came from there

A finding that hasn't been discussed much is the seeming shorter incubation period (panel b)

virological.org/t/viral-infect…
2/ In 2021 delta it was only 3.7 days (vs 5.6 days for 2020 outbreak).

This would have an impact on a key transmission dynamic factor we often look for: "serial interval periods" (time between symptom onset for index case vs subsequent case in a contact tracing investigation)
3/ What you are trying to estimate from observable symptom intervals is underlying mean generation time.

tangent: If you find negative serial intervals as in COVID, it's a sign of asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread.
Read 6 tweets
31 Jul
Without looking it up,

What is Rt in Arkansas right now?
Rt is actually 1.2 (0.98-1.5). It is taking 12 days (4 generations) to double

here's some math

If Rt (aka Reff) was 5, it would mean that it would go up 5*5*5*5 = 625 TIMES in 12 days, not 2x

epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/su…
3/ Now, we aren't living in an R0 world. Even though it may feel like it sometimes

People are vaccinated (despite breakthrough infections)
People are infected (despite reinfection risk)
People have changed behaviors

But "Delta variant is as transmissible as Chicken Pox"(R0~9)??
Read 8 tweets
30 Jul
1/ Like many others, I've been frustrated that we haven't seen the data behind the CDC's new recommendations. Parsing exact wording in transcripts is🤦

We're told there will be a release tomorrow but thanks to the @washingtonpost there's an internal CDC document to parse tonight
2/ The article by @yabutaleb7 @carolynyjohnson @JoelAchenbach is here:
washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07…

TY @bijans for spotting the "full pdf" download button.
3/ what do we learn?

The mysterious "other data" for high viral load in breakthrough cases came from a 4th of July outbreak in Provincetown (Barnstable, Mass) where the “vast majority” of the new cases were among fully vaccinated individuals

cc @zeynep
thehill.com/homenews/state…
Read 16 tweets
28 Jul
1/ What percent of vaccinated people who get infected with covid will have long-term symptoms?

I don't know, but I highly doubt that it's 19%.

Here's why I say that, and what the *right* study design would be for answering that question.
2/ when I was an Epidemic Intelligence Service Officer at the CDC, I investigated lots of outbreaks, and every one would have a symptom checklist

A surprisingly high number of people with a diagnosed infection will say YES to a variety of symptoms

Fatigue?
Headache?
Fogginess?
3/ many of these reported complaints would have absolutely nothing to do with their infection.

But recall bias is super powerful, and respondents often feel like they're supposed to say "yes". So they do.
Read 7 tweets

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