2/ As the title implies, the best way to think about the problem is that Private Equity points the way towards every opportunity for outsized financial gains, especially where there is arbitrage, or market failures.
PE investors use the word "rents" in a positive way
3/ As @brianwpowers@WillShrank have pointed out, if you create outsized opportunities in new payment models, private capital can accelerated that too
Though IMO they undersell the degree to which PE-backed groups in MA tend to focus on...risk adjustment
4/ The Brookings team acknowledges that PE is not necessarily worse than payers or hospitals when it comes to taking advantage of arbitrage.
We've seen plenty of that
(My favorite explanation for persistent belief in "Medicare cost shifting" -- "non profit hospitals are lazy")
5/ I know that for normal people, venture capital is private equity too, but in practice their incentives and strategies are completely different.
VCs fund startups, and you can't count on arbitrage/loopholes staying open for the time it takes to get to scale ("regulatory risk")
6/ my view is that attempts to target PE ownership specifically won't work, and could be distracting from the more important (and difficult) task of prying incumbents away from a status quo that bestows rent upon them.
Good policy = aligning private profit & public good
7/ I haven't thought about this enough, but if the problem is PE firms exploiting loopholes for short term gains and flipping it to the next player within 3 year investment window, a logical solution would be to increase the duration needed for them to realize long term cap gains
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Can we measure "likely unnecessary admissions" somehow?
...and to be clear, I am not sympathetic to the idea that we should somehow minimize the terrible negative impact of covid on hospitals and ICUs being full
2) it's true that good policy can align private profit with public good, but if we are going to rely on that, need tight surveillance and fast response from regulators to close arbitrage opportunities where short-term profit maximizers will gather. c/f surprise billing
3/ if you wait too long, then entrenched profits become normalized, powerful incumbents are formed, and they can, and will, exert political influence to keep the "status quo" in place.
Many health policy examples (facility fees, drug pricing). But also...Medicare Advantage 👀
2/ In 2021 delta it was only 3.7 days (vs 5.6 days for 2020 outbreak).
This would have an impact on a key transmission dynamic factor we often look for: "serial interval periods" (time between symptom onset for index case vs subsequent case in a contact tracing investigation)
3/ What you are trying to estimate from observable symptom intervals is underlying mean generation time.
tangent: If you find negative serial intervals as in COVID, it's a sign of asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread.
TY @bijans for spotting the "full pdf" download button.
3/ what do we learn?
The mysterious "other data" for high viral load in breakthrough cases came from a 4th of July outbreak in Provincetown (Barnstable, Mass) where the “vast majority” of the new cases were among fully vaccinated individuals