Some discussions in the press about how charge/summons rates vary by police force area.

Here I've prepared some charts to look at rape and other sexual offences, for the 3 years from 2018/19 to 2020/21 (inclusive).

First, rape charge rates.

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A very wide range of charge rates (as at July 2021: these data are periodically refreshed).

Durham are in a league of their own, with a 7.1% charge rate. Wilts, Kent, A&S and GMP all under 2%. Met Police on 2.3%. #crimestats

2/
Here's the same data with the 3 years separated out.

Note that rape offences that reach a charge typically take a long time to investigate, so those reported in 2018/19 have had longer to reach a conclusion, and not all rapes recorded over the 3 years are finalised yet.

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Note that I've not accounted for crimes that have 'not yet been assigned an outcome' in this analysis (they are still counted in the denominator), and the charge rates will increase as more time passes.

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I wondered if the rate of rapes (per 100k population) recorded by the police might be a factor, thinking lower rates might equate to more time to investigate each allegation.

In fact, there is no correlation at all.

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Finally, I also looked at the 3-year charge rate for other sexual offences (ie all sexual offences except rape). A somewhat different picture, though Wilts and especially Kent still way down on the rest.

The offence mix could be a factor, as could varying charging practices.

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The source for the data: Home Office Crime Outcomes in England and Wales Open Data, as at July 2021 (the most recent available as of today). gov.uk/government/sta…

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As with most things I've posted on here in recent years, I've done this analysis in my own time. If you'd like to support my work, you can help by buying me a coffee ko-fi.com/gmhales.

Thank you.
Here's the Telegraph piece from yesterday, which singles out the Met and Lancs. I think it unhelpfully conflates violent and sexual offences. telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/0…
For comparative purposes, here is the charge/summons rate by force for violence with injury offences. The Met are above average. I'm not sure that fits with the Telegraph portrayal of it being "the worst force in England and Wales for solving sexual and violent crime".
@pwilkinson_pcc the charts above will be of interest
If you want to see the full breakdown of crime outcomes for rapes across 2018/19 to 20/21, here it is (ranked by % charged/summons).

I've picked out the % 'not yet assigned an outcome' in pink: 5 forces over 25%, Wilts 42%.
Since a number of people have suggested that regional CPS practices may be important, here's the force rape charge rates colour coded by CPS area
It's interesting, for example, to note the Durham/Northumbria/Cleveland group towards the top, and the Sussex/Surrey/Kent group towards the bottom. A fairly mixed picture overall.
I've now grouped the police force rape charge/summons rate data by CPS region.
The composition of the CPS regions, for reference cps.gov.uk/about-cps/cps-…

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More from @gmhales

6 Oct
I have a question about DASH forms, and wonder if someone can help?

If police respond to an allegation of rape, and the victim/complainant and suspect are in a domestic relationship, is a DASH assessment conducted?

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Why am I asking? Because in the context of understanding the police recording of rape, I'm trying to work out if it is possible to identify the % of rapes reported via DASH forms, secondary to a different primary allegation of domestic abuse/violence.

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For context: around 1/3 of police recorded rape allegations relate to domestic relationships. I'm told many are recorded after being disclosed during DASH assessments.

Eg police respond to a domestic assault, conduct a DASH assessment, the victim discloses a previous rape.

3/
Read 8 tweets
29 Jul
Re. the concerns raised about the potential for a large rise in #stopsearch: it is of course quite possible that forces like the Met will choose not to do so.

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theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/j…
I personally don't foresee a return to the days of #opblunt2 and the wholesale use of s60 #stopsearch powers, which I think were used in the late 00s well beyond the original intention of Parliament (in 2007 I raised that with a Met Commander when I was working there).

2/
What makes me think that? Well for one thing, I know there are officers in positions of influence at the moment who express reservations about the efficacy of #stopsearch as a wholesale strategy. I think the culture has moved on (though recognise that could change).

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Read 7 tweets
27 Jul
"The policing minister has defended plans to ease restrictions on stop and search powers for police, saying there is no feasible alternative if knife crime is to be tackled" #stopsearch

1/ theguardian.com/law/2021/jul/2…
Note the policy relates to s60 ('suspicionless') powers only. This is significant because many officers will tell you most stops done under s60 could be done under a suspicion-based power (eg s1 PACE), and therefore there often is a 'feasible alternative' to s60. @kitmalthouse
Worth adding that s60 powers are only used in a v small minority of #stopsearch

3/
Read 5 tweets
27 Nov 20
.@EssexBarrister I appreciated your contribution yesterday to the discussion on Sky. Wondered if I might offer a few pieces of the puzzle re disproportionality in terms of crime and policing?

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Nationally, '...among the broad ethnic groups, Black people were most likely to live in the 10% of neighbourhoods most deprived in relation to crime (27% of this group did so)’ ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/uk-population-…

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In London (and elsewhere), areas (here boroughs) with more crime are allocated more police officers (TNO = Total Notifiable Offences)

3/ Image
Read 17 tweets
24 Nov 20
Here's a question: do police officers get any training on the risks of logical fallacies (and/or statistics...)?

What am I on about? Bear with me...

[Short thread]

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I attended (virtually) a meeting the other day at which several attendees described their/their colleagues' experiences of being stopped and searched by police during lockdown. Most of the cases related to s23 drugs #stopsearch-es. A couple had received media coverage.

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Eg 2 scenarios. (i) Black man sitting in his nice car (in a fairly deprived area) minding his own business, police stop next to him and ask him to get out for a s23 drugs search. (ii) Young people delivering food parcels #stopsearch-ed on suspicion of dealing drugs.

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Read 12 tweets
27 Jul 20
Some focus today on an increase in s60 #stopsearch by the Met during lockdown, eg in this article by @sloumarsh. I'd like to suggest that's a bit of a red herring.

1/5 Thread

theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/j….
Here are the MPS #stopsearch monthly totals by reason for search/power, fr June 2018 to June 2020. Huge increase in totals over the period, driven by drugs stops (s23).

The s60 totals are in red at the bottom (Jan'20 1.2k, Feb 505, Mar 710, Apr 292, May 1.4k, Jun 678).

2/5 Image
And here are the monthly percentages by reason for search/power for the same period.

s60 peaked at 27% in Aug18 and 12% in Aug19 (both Notting Hill Carnival). Was 4.6% in Jan 2020, 2.2% in Feb, 3.0% in Mar, 1.0% in Apr, 3.3% in May and 2.3% in June #stopsearch

3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets

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