Share this page!

Justin Wolfers Profile picture
Twitter logo
8 Oct, 10 tweets, 3 min read
Oh dear.

Non-farm payrolls in September rose by only +194k, after +366k last month.

The recovery has stalled.

We're missing about 8 million jobs, and at this rate, we're not bringing them back any time soon.
Slightly brighter news in the revisions: Last month's gains were revised from +235k to +366k. The previous month's gains were revised up by an additional +38k. So the prior two months were in total +169k better than we thought.

But this month is about 300k worse than we hoped.
The unemployment rate fell from 5.2% to 4.8%, but celebrations on this score would be premature, as it partly reflects the labor force shrinking by about -183k.

Household survey is slightly sunnier than the payrolls survey, showing employment growth of +526k.
Some questions about how the extent to which the disappointing jobs number reflects the pandemic shifting seasonal hiring patterns among teachers.
Also, all that talk of end UI being a big driver. It's a nothingburger. The real issue is -- and remains -- the virus.
Fed economists this morning will be furiously debating the definition of the term "decent." There's a decent case that this jobs report isn't decent enough to taper. Image
We're still missing nearly 9 million jobs. That's a hole about as deep as that in the depths of the recession following the 2008 financial crisis.
The real question at this point is whether the economy has been temporarily delayed, or whether it has stalled.
If you want to kickstart the economic recovery, we've all got one simple job to do: Get vaccinated.

Even better, get your family vaccinated, encourage your friends to get vaccinated, and encourage or even mandate your workforce to get vaccinated.

Jabs => Safety => Jobs
Oh hey, if you want to see my pandemic hair, I'll be on @CNN in just a few minutes, talking about the jobs report, fiscal policy, and the road ahead.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Justin Wolfers

Justin Wolfers Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JustinWolfers

Justin Wolfers Profile picture
11 Oct
The credibility revolution in economics.
Short version of the prize: We used to dig into the data, say "correlation ain't causation," quickly forget we said that, and make a bunch of causal-ish statements based on data that really couldn't support such claims.
Then David, Josh and Guido said: Hang on.

Their response wasn't the usual destructive "we can't make causal claims" stuff, but rather entirely constructive: Here's a toolkit and set of approaches to help you make credible causal claims.
Read 18 tweets
Justin Wolfers Profile picture
23 Sep
Stunning new estimates suggest that the 400 wealthiest American families paid an average Federal tax rate of only 8.2%. whitehouse.gov/cea/blog/2021/…
Here’s why:
1. The rich rely on investment income, which is taxed at lower rates than labor income.
2. They pay no income tax on a big chunk of their investment income. (This is the “stepped up basis” loophole.)
This new estimate does something quite important: It analyzes a measure of income that includes unrealized capital gains. The rich earn a lot of this income, but because it’s difficult to calculate, few estimates of tax rates include it.
Read 7 tweets
Justin Wolfers Profile picture
15 Sep
The vax mandate solves a collective action problem:

Businesses want to vax their staff to provide a safe workplace. But they’re each worried that if they move first, they’ll lose staff to their rivals (who probably also want vaxxed staff). Mandating the vax solves this problem.
Point is in many industries all of the major players want fully vaccinated staff, but none wants to bear the political heat of announcing this first. Result: None of them require it even if all of ‘em want to.

The mandate solves the problem of waiting for a first mover to emerge
The vax mandate only applies to large employers, and so may be a competitive advantage for large companies, because customers know they’ll be safe there. Small businesses who do have vaccinated staff need a way to signal that they’re just as safe.
Read 6 tweets
Justin Wolfers Profile picture
10 Sep
Viewing Biden's vaccine mandate as simply economic policy, it's surely the cheapest and most powerful economic stimulus ever enacted.
Lemme explain: Covid is a tax -- a tax on all in-person interactions, paid not with dollars but with lives. Vaccinations are a tax cut, and your shot cuts both your your covid tax, and your neighbors taxes, too. More jabs = a bigger tax cut, which will boost the service sector.
The reason that cutting the covid tax is such a cheap stimulus, is that this is one of the few tax cuts that doesn't actually reduce government revenue. Indeed, it probably boosts revenue: People are more likely to work when they feel safe, which boosts the government coffers.
Read 5 tweets
Justin Wolfers Profile picture
17 Aug
This @DataColada finding of outright data fabrication in a high profile study is really a holy shit moment, and I hope that all social scientists pay attention, and not just psych.
datacolada.org/98
Three of the authors have given quite useful responses describing their roles and what they know. The fourth is notable for what it doesn't say.
Mazar: datacolada.org/storage_strong…
Gino: datacolada.org/storage_strong…
Bazerman: datacolada.org/storage_strong…
Ariely: datacolada.org/storage_strong…
Also, the original blog post is just a lovely example of forensic analysis. Well worth reading just to learn from such a clear and fair statistical prosecution.
Read 4 tweets
Justin Wolfers Profile picture
6 Aug
BOOM! Payrolls growth of +943k in July, and unemployment down from 5.9% to 5.4%, and that's what a robust jobs report looks like.
Pretty helpful revisions add another +119k to May/June.
Volatility is a thing, so better to focus on the three month average of jobs gains running at +801k per month, which is pretty great, but also pretty necessary given the depth of the hole we're in.
Household survey shows employment grew +1,043k in July, roughly confirming the payrolls numbers.

Unemployment fell a lot because more people got jobs. Participation actually rose a tick (though it has further to go).
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @JustinWolfers has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @JustinWolfers!

Read all threads by @JustinWolfers

:(