1/
The good news: the METAVERSE is exciting but NOT for the reasons most people are talking about.
The bad news: odds are the 'Metaverse' will be used by IBM in an add before year-end and further dilute + erode it as buzzword bs that we all grow AVERSE to...
2/ To know the FUTURE of the tech of the metaverse
it starts with the PAST of the sci-fi
**mandatory reading for Zuck inner-circle as playbook for facebook
3/ I use the framework of RECTANGLES...
There are 3 kinds:
-Screens
-Windows
-Mirrors
4/ SCREENS
we go from being hunched over 4" rectangles...
5/ SCREENS
to slapping them screens right on your face
and hold them in place REAL tight
with suction
and a strap
6/ VR is one form of the 'metaverse'
and this rectangle slapped to your forehead
will let you ESCAPE reality
and while some will i am personally skeptical many people will spend much time in VR
the next rectangle⬜️⬜️ is a WINDOW.
Take 2 windows and you get this...
7/ WINDOW
Like an actual rectangle split in 2
a window on your face...
8/ WINDOW
Drop some tech in the frames and we will get
AR (augmented reality)
which i believe will have much more demand
a layer of useful information on top of (augmenting) reality (helping you see hidden things or layers that others have designed for you)
9/ MIRRORS
are more complicated as it is my metaphor for mirrorworld or simulation (one part capturing the world with higher fidelity + resolution; one part rendering it in simulation as digital-twin of built environment, spaces or objects)-- we will revisit later.
10/ The main difference between VR + AR
VR: escape reality. go somewhere else
AR: augment reality. stay here + add.
The best version of the "metaverse"?... it aint Facebook
11/ The best version of the Metaverse--aint FB.
it is at the moment: @TimSweeneyEpic @ Epic
Tim is taking on Apple, advocates for transparency + competition, and by appearances + words at least seems to want interoperability between universes (Roblox, Minecract, Fortnite)...
12/ The 'metaverse' that everyone is talking about imagines connecting the different gaming worlds that people spend time + attention on and adding portability of digital objects (characters, inventory-- who you are + what you own)...
13/ If those digital UNIverses were to ever be interconnected they would have an incentive to follow the old adage that people will GO where they are welcome and STAY where they are well-treated.
Crappy people make crappy places which send better people to better places...
14/ As an aside - all of these places even with the best rules + regulations + content moderation will still AMPLIFY our primate TRIBAL behavior.
Ever see a noob on Roblox?
They get taunted by other kids
for having default 'bacon hair'
You. do. NOT want. Bacon Hair.
15/ The best platforms inside the metaverse ought compete as cities do for citizens who create policies + incentives + induce citizens wanting to 'spend time' (and money) in them...
16/ Just as broadcast content companies do in 2D on SCREENS (netflix, hbo, apple+, youtube) via subscriptions...
and as networked user-generated content on social media does (IG, Snap, TikTok, Twitter) via mins of engagement monetized to advertisers...
17/ Wherever people are spending time with other people, it will be a de facto form of 'social media' and like all technologies it will be an amplifier.
18/ The broadcast news always said with authority (like Walter Cronkite):
i'm here, you're not, now...know this.
Social media says:
i'm here, you're not, na na na nana
19/ Back to the TECH of the 'METAVERSE'...
RENDERING comes via
The hardware chips (GPUs + edge chips)
+
The software engines (Unity, Unreal, Godot)
with diff biz models- respectively (seat license, free w/royalty, open source)...
20/ The app layers are the currently popular and surely future emergent universes (Roblox, Minecraft, Fortnite, Apex Legends, etc)
The connection, networking, comms protocols enabling low-latency and real-time massive participation will be led by @subspacepowered to @GenvidTech
21/ And the payments layer will be mix of converted in-game currency and crypto
The NFT movement is silly at first (digital art) but it is encouraging more widespread use for identity + 3D avatars that will have the persistence across UNIverses and there is a useful analogy: GPS
22/GPS uses 3 machines (satellites) to yield a triangulated point digitally addressed in space-time of 'ground truth' LOCATION in real space
NFT on Ethereum uses many machines to yield triangulated point digitally addressed in space-time of 'ground truth' EXISTENCE in cyberspace
23/ I see the NFT art movement with people investing in silly avatars from Bored Apes + beyond being ported into other domains and the NFT* providing the licensed user-consent like Marvel would for a character
*its just a BRC: 'bragging-right-certificate'
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1/ I am a VC––and arguably have EVERY self-serving reason to not share this...
Yet a reputation for being intellectually honest, critical of hype and a lifelong student of human behavior + markets is better than EVER being a huckster promoter misleading followers…
2/ Excellent piece from longtime friend @andykessler—a tech savvy investor who also is a student of markets
(he made a fortune running money during the .com boom + as he once told me “got to keep the money”;)… wsj.com/articles/low-i…
3/
Andy notes:
Joby is worth more than Lufthansa, EasyJet and JetBlue.
Tesla is worth more than the next 6 automakers combined.
BYND (made with pea protein) is worth more than the entire market for peas eaten globally.
Yahoo was once $125B + AOL $200B, both 99% less today
1/ Any situation with disorder + chaos = DISASTER
Right now Afghanistan is disaster
2 waves are rolling
-Regret + anger (“all for what?”) + low military morale foment
-Rebukes of failed approach + coulda/shoulda op-eds + books from think tanks cement US embarassment…
2/
Dometically (+ internationally) politically it is big distraction for Blinken + Biden who are now on and will be on justifying- then apologist- defensive
—when they need to be focused on China.
Biden critics + the videos + images will be amplifyingly unrelenting
3/ China + Russia…will help amplify VERY aggressively
(using US social media accounts)
Russia already smearing Ashraf Ghani saying he filled helicopters with cash + fled (like banana republic dicatator)…
1/ Have appreciation, emapthy and undersattnding for our VETERANS right now.
The ‘decision’ to “withdraw” from Afghanistan is causing heartwrenching pain suffering, frustration, anger—so many sacrificed SO MUCH (and many sacrificed ALL from limbs to life)…
2/ The US / Pentagon could never admit this overtly
failed state in Afghanistan under Taliban will foment violent extremists as it has
and yet now China = greater U.S. priority
History shows nation fighting two fronts often flails
Crazy 💭Our enemy’s enemy may be our “friend”
3/ CCP may recognize Taliban if Kabul fails
But will Taliban? They need
-Opium trade to China
-there are 1M muslims in concentration camps on Afghanistan border
What if US “decision” was not haphazard but calculated
“Enough—make this China’s problem on the Western front”