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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

@nicktolhurst

10 Oct

+UPDATE+

UK civil servants have been told to “workshop a trade war with EU” as the UK govt now believes the current trade deal agreed with the EU is so bad that a trade war might not be as costly in comparison.

In essence the implication is that the trade deal negotiated by this govt is so bad that the additional costs of a trade war might be bearable in the short term in order to achieve the govt’s goals.

There’s also been talk that the EU if forced to retaliate would likely choose “iconic industries” which would not affect local EU supply chains & where local substitutes exit - such as 🇬🇧 whisky or salmon.

Read 5 tweets

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

@nicktolhurst

4 Oct

Many people assume elections are won or lost by how many of the other party you "convert" to voting for yours. This is largely a myth.

UK elections are won by winning more swing seats by:
1. Encouraging opposition voters not to vote
2. Encouraging more of your supporters to vote

In UK marginal constituencies (seats with a majority of less than 3%) many seats can change hands simply by one party's voters staying at home more than normal & a few more of another's voters voting more.

In other words govts can change without many people changing their vote.

The way FPTP operates in UK this makes swing voters in swing seats super crucial.
Swing voters are obviously easier to switch to & from voting.

So in theory the next UK election only needs 85 000 Tory voters in certain seats to decide not to vote to wipe out the govt's majority.

Read 16 tweets

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

@nicktolhurst

4 Oct

Some context for British people on N. Ireland:

1. Over the last 25 years the Unionist vote in Northern Ireland has gradually declined from 51% to now circa 44%.

Regardless whether N Ireland stays in UK for the next decade it's now no longer, in any sense, a "unionist province".

While religion is certainly not a "100% determinator of N irish political identity" it's still a useful gauge of demographic trends:

2. The only demographic with more Protestants than Catholics are the over 50s.
The average working age person in Northern Ireland is a Catholic.

3. In 1983, almost 90% of Northern Ireland's MPs were unionist.

The last election (2019) marked the 1st time unionists no longer formed a majority of N Irish seats at Westminister.

Read 8 tweets

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

@nicktolhurst

29 Sep

A point that’s often forgotten by remainers is the key role 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 plays in the next Labour govt.

The assumption (probably correct) that SNP wins nearly all 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 seats if Tories lose…actually makes 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 role in next Labour govt even more crucial…not less.

Here’s why…

The key point is Labour are a 🇬🇧union party. Out of conviction & self interest.

They won’t want to “lose” Scotland. No party wants that on their watch.

So the question is what can Labour offer the most anti Brexit part of the UK that will convince them to not go independent..?

Any coalition that is in anyway dependent on 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 seats and particularly on cooperation with the SNP can offer only 1 thing that might avoid 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 independence ->

A huge softening of Brexit.
It’s the only thing Labour have got it can give - and its of course what Labour members want.

Read 10 tweets

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

@nicktolhurst

18 Sep

It’s become clear from reports in the last few days that Australia has been deceiving 🇫🇷 for as long as the last 18 months.

Countries can play hard ball on commercials interests - everyone does it, incl. the 🇫🇷.

But such an action by allies on defence pacts is something else.

The upshot of this is the 🇫🇷 will conclude that in foreign policy terms Biden is continuity Trump. But the 🇫🇷 have always been less dewey-eyed about the US anyway.

🇫🇷 will strengthen focus on EU & assume that 🇦🇺 isn’t a serious dependable ally.

What does this mean for 🇬🇧?

The AUKUS stuff will please the anti-EUers but less reported on is how little 🇬🇧 benefits from this. 🇺🇸 will get lion share of any new contract while 🇬🇧, reliant on 🇫🇷 good will for so many things: immigration control, trade flows etc will simply think Britain an reliable sh*t.

Read 7 tweets

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

@nicktolhurst

16 Sep

Many people still after 5 years don’t get it.
Return of imperial measurements is not a “dead cat”.
It’s a way of punishing the young & the educated.

Just as Brexit isn’t Brexit unless foreigners suffer even if we don’t expel them.
The point is to make their lives more difficult.

It’s a war.
In which there’s no economic gains for most people, so in order for Brexit to be a success “they” must suffer.

Ever additional form an EUer has to fill out satisfies the desire to inflict pain. As does inflicting imperial weights on the young.

The pain is the point.

I keep telling you this but you still don’t learn from history.

In 1930s Germany 90% of people had no idea what state-corporatist-nationalism was. They didn’t care either.

But a “permission to transgress” & the chance to “inflict pain” on others was what led them there.

Read 4 tweets

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