To those that worry robots will take all jobs, chill out.

Even if there's only 1 type of job left for humans to do and all else are automated, earnings from that 1 type will grow to infinite.
For example, if teaching yoga is the only type of human job left, yoga teachers will end up making say, $1 million a year or something crazy.
The reason is if productivity in all sectors of economy go up b/c of automation except in one sector, that sector's price will go up so much that it captures all the value accrual in economy, as long as that sector cannot be replaced.
It's for this same reason that yoga class in America is much more expensive than yoga class in Bangladesh. Not because yoga teachers in America are better at their job. But because productivity in the rest of economy is a lot higher in US than in Bangladesh.
We'll see a similar pattern play out in robot-dominant economy. The only problem is not everyone can become a yoga teacher or a nurse.

Still, as long as humans still value "human touch", which cannot be scaled, there'll be jobs left for humans to do that pay well enough.

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More from @RealNatashaChe

9 Oct
With regulations coming, some say DeFi will lose its edge.

They’re wrong.

“No regulation” is not the winning feature of DeFi. Neither is decentralization. Take those away and DeFi is still 100x better than TradFi.

Here's a look at DeFi’s true competitive advantages 👇
First off, why can DeFi offer higher yields than banks?

Obviously some yields are more sustainable than others. I wrote an article a while ago looking at different types of yields.

But the reality is in the short term, the #1 reason of high yields is lots of money flowing into crypto to chase returns.
Read 45 tweets
1 Oct
Crypto is a systemic shock that’ll make society more equal.

Rising inequality is an inevitable feature of capitalism. But like all systemic shocks through history, the rise of crypto’ll help reset wealth distribution.

Here’s why & what it means for your own wealth strategy 👇
Wealth inequality is at the highest in US history. It causes social upheaval & is bad for economy (weak purchasing power of middle class = no demand to drive growth).
People say technology change, globalization, and lack of skill training are reasons for this rising inequality.

But actually even without any of those, increasing wealth concentration is *inevitable* in any capitalistic society.
Read 48 tweets
22 Sep
The 1st time I used deFi, it felt like I witnessed something so huge that my brain couldn't process.

I had to lie down on the couch for a few hrs to let the adrenaline pass.

That's the magical moment I always refer back to whenever market sells off.

Price is down. It sucks. But ultimately I'm in this space because crypto is one of the great experiments in human history and I don't want to miss a second of it.

It may sound unrelated, but last time I felt a magical moment like that was in 2001 when China joined WTO.
I was in school and went to a party at a professor's where we gathered to watch the WTO ceremony on TV.

I remember biking back to dorm after midnight in freezing wind of Beijing winter, yet didn't feel cold at all cuz I was running on the high of having just witnessed history.
Read 11 tweets
21 Sep
Will Chinese government bail out Evergrande?

They shouldn't.

Here's why.
Housing price needs to come down.

China's been wanting to switch to domestic consumption led growth for many yrs. So far it hasn't happened (much).

How come?

The average Joe doesn't have enough money.
Housing, the biggest spending item, is less & less affordable as price ballooned, esp the last 5 yrs.

If you can't even afford shelter, there's def no extra purchasing power to buy other stuff.
Read 17 tweets
17 Sep
If countries are stocks, which ones should you long & which to short?

I used machine learning to grade the industrial health of 190 countries over 30 years. Here’re results on China, US, India & more.

See which countries I’m bullish & bearish about for the next decade 👇
First, a word on how this is done.

My coauthor (Xuege Zhang of Carnegie Mellon) & I used ML algorithm to figure out which products each country should export, given the country’s unique combo of traits. (full paper linked at the end if you’re curious).
We then check if a country is indeed exporting what it should. Each country gets a “health score” of their export portfolio every year. It measures the similarity btw actual exports and algorithm’s recommendations:

higher score = healthier economy.
Read 37 tweets
7 Sep
People angry about a jpeg 🖼 selling for $1 mn fail to see the big picture.

If you understand the nature of assets & long-term macro backdrop, it’s easy to see why NFTs will grow exponentially.

Here’s a simple framework to help wrap your head around this new asset class.
WHAT ARE ASSETS?

They are instruments to transfer ownership of value across time and space.
Your Amazon stock is ownership on Amazon future earnings. Your ounce of gold is ownership of $1830 (today’s gold price) worth of economic output— you can use it to claim a share of today’s GDP by, say, using your gold to buy some groceries.
Read 36 tweets

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