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John Pfaff Profile picture
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9 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
If you’re going to disagree with me, at least disagree with the argument I’m actually making, not some bizarro-world version of it that is the opposite of what I’ve said. ImageImageImage
This isn’t the first time he’s done this. In The Atlantic, he used a quote of mine about how reformers should NOT underplay the homicide spike to say I said they should:
I’m sure my arguments have their weaknesses. Just… engage with those, not some mischaracterized strawman.
Anyway, here’s the piece he’s mischaracterizing:

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John Pfaff Profile picture
11 Oct
This is an important addition to this article. It’s essential to note that the management collapse at Rikers breeds violence, but an article that ONLY discusses violence reinforces (likely unintentionally) a narrative that ultimately supports imprisonment.
I think berating every article on the criminal legal system as “copaganda” will ultimately harm reform efforts—I’m sympathetic to the point, but even I’m getting turned off by the vitriol—but it is also important to note how the powerful but subtle impact of framing.
Here, noting the violence is critical. But by mentioning more of the mutual aid taking place (it’s noted only once, I think, when it talks abt the ppl detained escorting civilian workers—a frame that still centers violence), it would frame the violence as more situational.
Read 7 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
4 Oct
I feel like there's almost nothing said about how between 1980 and 1984, homicide fell by over 20%, robbery by almost 20%, agg assault by 7%,* and rape by 3%.

We have a good theory abt a major reversal of the declines, but the decline itself goes unremarked upon.
Like, if crack hadn't arrived, would that decline have continued? Given that the Great Crime Decline began just five years later, find it hard to think it's some sort of cohort-age artifact.

Did crack interrupt something already started? Making 1991 a dubious start date?
I mean, property crime declined over almost that entire period. Declines were happening.

But if the Great Crime Decline is really something that started in 1980 with a crack interruption in 1984, that throws off, like, a TON of stuff, right? (I see you, lead and abortion and...)
Read 8 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
4 Oct
Lately on here, some people have widely cited saying the FBI's data for the claim that while homicides rose, violent crime fell.

Overall violence ROSE in 2020, per the FBI.

What the headlines said was "major" crime fell. That's Index violent AND property.
The total violent crime rate rose by about 5%. The total property crime rate fell by 8%.

And there are 5x as many reported property crimes as violent (6.5M vs. 1.3M). So property drove the decline.
More nuanced:

reported homicide (+30%) and aggravated assault (+12%) rose, while reported robbery (-9%) and rape (-12%) fell.

But aggravated assaults are 72% of all reported violent crimes, so "violent crime" basically just means "agg assault."
Read 10 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
30 Sep
From 1960-80, annual murders rose ~14K, from ~9K to ~23K, and we invested SO MUCH in prisons and punishment in response.

From 1999-2019, drug OD deaths rose by ~54K, from ~17K to ~71K. Prelim CDC data says ODs will jump ~20K JUST in 2020.

Nowhere near the political response.
Both target the young--from 1999-2019, those under 40 account for ~80% of the years of life lost to homicide, and ~60% of years of life lost to drug overdoses.

But drug ODs cost those under 40 1.34 million years of life lost, vs. 650K for homicide. More than twice as much.
To be clear, homicide has collateral costs that drug ODs do not--like the recent paper that simply hearing a gunshot within a few blocks does real harms to children.

But both are sudden and traumatic and tear apart families' lives.
Read 5 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
29 Sep
The use of a acquitted conduct at sentencing actually strikes me as a legally tricky issue that raises intriguing questions.

Why is it (Fed) constitutionally okay? Because the burdens of proof are different at trial than sentencing, and “acquitted” doesn’t mean “innocent.”
For guilt/innocence, state gotta prove everything beyond a reasonable doubt. But for sentencing, the (constitutional) rules mostly go away (30,000-tweet thread on Blakely omitted here).

Totally fine to, say, sentence based on something found by a preponderance.

So: “acquitted.”
“Acquitted” doesn’t = “innocent.” It means “not proven beyond a reasonable doubt.”

Over course of trial, judge may come to think ~60% likely def is guilty. That’s not BRD, but it is preponderance.

So okay for sentencing, given our rules.
Read 5 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
28 Sep
I've seen a bunch of tweets today abt how we spend $x per person on Rikers.

That's not how jail/prison finance math works. At Rikers, think ~90% of spending is wages and benefits. Which means total spending is fairly insensitive to population, and it isn't "going to" detainees.
It also means as jail pops fall, spending-per-person-in-jail will almost axiomatically rise, because unless we lay off staff, we'll be spending the same amount, just... per fewer ppl held there.

It's important to stop talking abt jail/prison spending in "per detainee" terms.
Talking about "spending per person in jail/prison" misleads ppl abt where the money is going (wages, not programming), and also means we grossly overstate the savings we hope for when cutting back prison/jail pops (since total spending won't move absent LABOR, not pop, cuts).
Read 4 tweets

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