Thread by @andrewflood

Last 3 days of #Covid19Ireland confirms bad news of what may be the start of wave 5. Swabs over those 3 days are 132% of the same days last week & positivity now up to 10% confirming this isn't an impact of more testing
Sat 1722, 144%
Sun 1523, 118%
Mon 1449, 136%
/1

We are also seeing that potential 5th wave in New Hospital Cases
400 hospital is 120% last Monday
308 new hospital cases this week is 116% last week
NHC were 3.65% cases in previous week /2

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1447487009971449857?s=20

And if not yet as strong in ICU
75 ICU is 117% last Monday
36 ICU admissions is 109% previous week
ICU admissions are 12.5% NHC
/3

The big problem if this is a trend is its starting at very high levels of cases, hospital and ICU occupancy - so high in fact that they triggered lockdowns at much lower numbers previously. There's very little 'wait & see' room to see if hospital cases follow at similar rate/4

Vaccination has slowed down massively, only 5,602 dose 1s in all of last week leaving 400,000 over 12s eligible but unprotected which at previous rates could see 12k hospitalised and almost 1100 sent to ICU. So rapid case growth still a huge problem for other healthcare /5

From break through ICU & deaths data its also clear that a lot of cases could generate a lot of both in the vaccinated population because vaccines are very but not 100% effective /6

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1447516540098781185?s=20

Without more of that 400k being vaccinated the exit from the pandemic may see the reintroduction of measures to protect healthcare. Some 900k awaiting other healthcare now with some hospitals already in crisis won't leave other options /7

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1447516540098781185?s=20

Honestly if you are not yet vaccinated because you think you'll not be hard hit by Covid understand that its not just your health your gambling with but our ability to stay open. 12,000 of you making that gamble are wrong - way too many for the hospitals & ICUs

there isn't a lot that can be done about vaccine breakthrough cases except boosters - but a big reduction in the unvaccinated will cut both transmission and the number. And here's a thread on why 75% vaccination has not been enough to stop Delta

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1447586120296972292?s=20