Thread by @andrewflood

Le Sigh - an early update of the NPHETs Exit #Covid19Ireland cases plot confirms what looks like the start of the 5th wave with
1358 cases 152% last Monday
9999 cases this week at 113% previous
With the end of contact tracing in schools we should have seen a missed case drop /1

The potential emerging 5th wave is also clear on the New Hospital Cases Plot - the doubling of case severity in the last 2-3 weeks is an unexplained concern
400 hospital is 120% last Monday
308 new hospital cases this week is 116% last week
NHC were 3.65% cases in previous week/2

Likewise ICU shows a rise when NPHETs Exit expected a fall - we did well for 2 months, now its at least doubtful
75 ICU is 117% last Monday
36 ICU admissions is 109% previous week
ICU admissions are 12.5% NHC
/3

I'm am truth be told a little broken by this turn for the worst even though I suspected it last week. But we are where we are - a load more detail and analysis from when the hospital data was published here /4

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1447487009971449857?s=20

I maintained a wishful thinking optimism even through I'd done the calculations in this thread and the patten from elsewhere was clear enough. Still a few good months & now back to a struggle but on a better terrain - there is still an exit here

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1447586120296972292?s=20