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Jim Bianco Profile picture
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11 Oct, 6 tweets, 3 min read
1/6
A thread about COVID that is both encouraging and highlights the confusion and why cases go up and down.

This matters a lot for economic growth projections.
2/6
First the encouraging news. Both the US and the globe have peaked in cases.

US cases are almost down by half in about a month.
3/6
So what drives lower cases? Is it vaccine rates?

If so, see Singapore. They have one of the highest vaccine rates in the world (more than 80%) and yet their cases have gone parabolic.
4/6
The New York Times says the reason for Singapore spike is they lifted restrictions too soon.

nytimes.com/2021/10/08/wor…
5/6
So if restrictions are the key, then see Australia. Oxford Univ has a "Stringency Index" to measure lockdowns.

Singapore (red) is indeed among the least stringent developed counties. Australia (blue) is the highest. Despite Australia's lockdowns, cases are also spiking.
6/6
So why do cases go up and down? Vaccines or restrictions? If both, then one is probably not needed.

Credit the NYT for saying it out loud, we really do not know why cases go up and down and shaming "others" for "not behaving" is not the answer.

nytimes.com/2021/10/08/bri…

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More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco Profile picture
12 Oct
1/8
The August "JOLTS" (Job Openings and Labor Turnover) Survey was out the morning.

As these charts show, a record 4.27 million, or 2.9% of the labor force, "quit" their jobs in August. ImageImage
2/8
More than 20% of quits were in "accommodation and food services." This category is usually the largest, as the chart shows, this was a record for this group.

With some employers desperate for employees and willing to pay $21 to $22/hr for new hires, why work in fast food? Image
3/8
This type of report is often an indication of a strong labor mkt, employees are comfortable quitting thinking they can find another job.

But as the weak Aug and Sept payroll reports suggest, these newly minted "quits" are not running to new jobs.

reuters.com/world/us/us-jo….
Read 9 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
11 Oct
1/6
 Now 1800+ flights

*SOUTHWEST COO: STILL SHORT ON WORKERS, ESPECIALLY FLIGHT CREWS

*SOUTHWEST COO COMMENTS ON CANCELLATIONS IN VIDEO FOR EMPLOYEES

*SOUTHWEST COO: `WE NEED MORE STAFFING CUSHION FOR DISRUPTIONS'

*SOUTHWEST COO: `CANNOT TELL YOU THAT WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS'
2/6
Apparently This is not an organized protest per say.

Rather those that have not been vaccinated, and will not, expect to be fired on October 28 (final date to show proof of vaccination).

So they are using up their accrued sick and vacation days now.
3/6
I’ve argued that the nature of jobs and work has changed. Don’t know what we are transforming too, but it is not back to 2019.

Prior to the pandemic this was unthinkable for employees to do. Now it is happening everywhere.

Something has changed
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
9 Oct
1/12

The rest of the calendar year the focus will be on the the usual list stuff; Fed tapering, growth/employment, inflation, earnings, crypto regulation, etc.

But, the next biggest issue this calendar year is Washington/Budget/Infrastructure/Debt Ceiling.

A thread to explain
2/12

And unlike the list above, the most important factor driving this issue is not discussed much at all, Biden's epic approval rating collapse.

Another raft of polls came out late Friday (yesterday) that tanked the rolling average of his approval rating even further.
3/12

Washington's conventional wisdom (rarely correct), was Biden approval rating would rebound after COVID peaked and Afghanistan headlines faded.

Both did and Biden keeps going down and down and has not shown any ability to make his approval rating "bounce."
Read 13 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
7 Oct
Quinnipiac is one of the more highly thought of polling organizations.

Their new poll out was terrible for Biden.

And this might be the signal that is causing the mainstream media to finally admit Biden is in deep trouble.

poll.qu.edu/poll-release?r…

1/6
No less than Jake Tapper on CNN could not longer ignore Biden's collapsing approval rating anymore.

2/6
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight (owned by ABC News) SHOULD HAVE been all over this.

They have been strangely quiet ... until today.

They note that Afghanistan and COVID are both disappearing from the headlines and Biden gets worse and worse.

3/6
 fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden…
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
3 Oct
Powell reappointment is trading back at an all-time low, Brainard at a new high.

The Fed really screwed this up and it is going to hurt Powell and the institution badly.

A thread to explain

1/9
@greg_ip @ctorresreporter @steveliesman @mckonomy @vtg2 @NickTimiraos
First, I've known Rich Clarida for years and he really is a good/decent person. I believe that he might be the victim or poor timing on his trades rather than something sinister like insider trading.

But, this is DC and Rich wanted to play.

2/9
The Fed knew his disclosure statement was bad. That is why the released it late on a Friday.

Confirming it was bad is Powell getting reappointed took a big hit this weekend.

Powell traded near 80% before the Clarida disclosure Fri PM and, as of this writing, he is 61%.

3/9
Read 9 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
2 Oct
A lot of news tonight.

The Democrats met to try and come to a deal, Biden spoke to the D caucus late this afternoon, no reporters, and no mobile phones were allowed. So this account in Politico, which is sympathetic to Ds, comes from other Ds in the room.

1/6
The open!

President Biden deflated the air of urgency around a bipartisan infrastructure vote and tamped down liberal dreams of a $3.5 trillion spending bill in a speech before House Democrats Friday that left some members fuming.
-
He made it worse!
2/6
politico.com/news/2021/10/0…
Remember the debt ceiling is tied to the infrastructure and (now formerly) $3.5 trillion spending bills via reconciliation.

With no deal on these two bills, we get no debt ceiling hike. Biden further said there is no urgency, then how is the debt ceiling getting raised?

3/6
Read 6 tweets

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