1/8

The August "JOLTS" (Job Openings and Labor Turnover) Survey was out the morning.

As these charts show, a record 4.27 million, or 2.9% of the labor force, "quit" their jobs in August.
2/8

More than 20% of quits were in "accommodation and food services." This category is usually the largest, as the chart shows, this was a record for this group.

With some employers desperate for employees and willing to pay $21 to $22/hr for new hires, why work in fast food?
3/8

This type of report is often an indication of a strong labor mkt, employees are comfortable quitting thinking they can find another job.

But as the weak Aug and Sept payroll reports suggest, these newly minted "quits" are not running to new jobs.

reuters.com/world/us/us-jo….
4/n

As I have been harping on recently, something else might be at work, as this story on CNBC from earlier today details.
cnbc.com/2021/10/12/why…
5/n

Highlights from the CNBC story above ...

Over half of the employees want to leave [their jobs], and there’s really two reasons that came out of the survey,” ...
6/n

... “One is if they felt that their employers did not understand them, that they weren’t providing empathy. This is especially true for working parents, male or female. They didn’t feel good about the experience, and they’re looking to leave. ...
7/n

... Approx 41% of those surveyed say they are considering leaving their job because their company has not cared about their concerns during the pandemic and a whopping 76% say they want their company to make work permanently flexible in terms of schedule and/or location.
8/8

In other words, my boss sucks and I quit.

So, instead of asking what is with employees (don't they need $$$, are they lazy), start asking what's wrong with managers and why they are not adapting to 2021?

Maybe we need new bosses?
Bonus

Are boomer managers obsolete by insisting on a return to 2019?

Should they be sent into retirement for a new generation better suited for the post pandemic economy?

This also applies the economists forcing pre-pandemic models that no longer seem to explain the economy.

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More from @biancoresearch

14 Oct
1/4

13 years ago today (October 14, 2008) was a very important event that forever changed financial history, and, I believe, provided a big tailwind to Satoshi Nakamoto's new project called bitcoin

A thread to explain
2/n

October 14, 2008 was infamous meeting at the New York Fed where the largest banks accepted $250 billion in TARP bailout money.

The financial world has not been the same since.

history.com/topics/21st-ce…
3/4

I believe this one act forever sullied the banking system's reputation that led to everything from the Tea Party to Occupy Wall Street.

I believe it also provided a big tailwind for a something coming just a few months later, Bitcoin, it’s first trade was January 3, 2009.
Read 4 tweets
11 Oct
1/6
Now 1800+ flights

*SOUTHWEST COO: STILL SHORT ON WORKERS, ESPECIALLY FLIGHT CREWS

*SOUTHWEST COO COMMENTS ON CANCELLATIONS IN VIDEO FOR EMPLOYEES

*SOUTHWEST COO: `WE NEED MORE STAFFING CUSHION FOR DISRUPTIONS'

*SOUTHWEST COO: `CANNOT TELL YOU THAT WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS'
2/6

Apparently This is not an organized protest per say.

Rather those that have not been vaccinated, and will not, expect to be fired on October 28 (final date to show proof of vaccination).

So they are using up their accrued sick and vacation days now.
3/6

I’ve argued that the nature of jobs and work has changed. Don’t know what we are transforming too, but it is not back to 2019.

Prior to the pandemic this was unthinkable for employees to do. Now it is happening everywhere.

Something has changed
Read 6 tweets
11 Oct
1/6

A thread about COVID that is both encouraging and highlights the confusion and why cases go up and down.

This matters a lot for economic growth projections.
2/6

First the encouraging news. Both the US and the globe have peaked in cases.

US cases are almost down by half in about a month.
3/6

So what drives lower cases? Is it vaccine rates?

If so, see Singapore. They have one of the highest vaccine rates in the world (more than 80%) and yet their cases have gone parabolic.
Read 6 tweets
9 Oct
1/12

The rest of the calendar year the focus will be on the the usual list stuff; Fed tapering, growth/employment, inflation, earnings, crypto regulation, etc.

But, the next biggest issue this calendar year is Washington/Budget/Infrastructure/Debt Ceiling.

A thread to explain
2/12

And unlike the list above, the most important factor driving this issue is not discussed much at all, Biden's epic approval rating collapse.

Another raft of polls came out late Friday (yesterday) that tanked the rolling average of his approval rating even further.
3/12

Washington's conventional wisdom (rarely correct), was Biden approval rating would rebound after COVID peaked and Afghanistan headlines faded.

Both did and Biden keeps going down and down and has not shown any ability to make his approval rating "bounce."
Read 13 tweets
7 Oct
Quinnipiac is one of the more highly thought of polling organizations.

Their new poll out was terrible for Biden.

And this might be the signal that is causing the mainstream media to finally admit Biden is in deep trouble.

poll.qu.edu/poll-release?r…

1/6
No less than Jake Tapper on CNN could not longer ignore Biden's collapsing approval rating anymore.

2/6

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight (owned by ABC News) SHOULD HAVE been all over this.

They have been strangely quiet ... until today.

They note that Afghanistan and COVID are both disappearing from the headlines and Biden gets worse and worse.

3/6
fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden…
Read 6 tweets
3 Oct
Powell reappointment is trading back at an all-time low, Brainard at a new high.

The Fed really screwed this up and it is going to hurt Powell and the institution badly.

A thread to explain

1/9

@greg_ip @ctorresreporter @steveliesman @mckonomy @vtg2 @NickTimiraos
First, I've known Rich Clarida for years and he really is a good/decent person. I believe that he might be the victim or poor timing on his trades rather than something sinister like insider trading.

But, this is DC and Rich wanted to play.

2/9
The Fed knew his disclosure statement was bad. That is why the released it late on a Friday.

Confirming it was bad is Powell getting reappointed took a big hit this weekend.

Powell traded near 80% before the Clarida disclosure Fri PM and, as of this writing, he is 61%.

3/9
Read 9 tweets

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