This far, #Sadr wins the largest parliamentary bloc with a total of 73 seats:

Baghdad (28)
Basra (9)
Dhi Qar (8)
Babel (2)
Amarah (7)
Wasit (5)
Najaf (5)
Karbala (4)
Diwaniyah (3)
Samawah (2)
State of law follows with 36:

Baghdad (14)
Basra (2)
Dhi Qar (4)
Babel (3)
Wasit (2)
Najaf (2)
Karbala (2)
Diwaniyah (2)
Muthana (3)
Maysan (2)
Kurdish parties with a total of:

KDP (32)
PUK (15)
New Generation (9)
Islamic Union (4)
Kurdish Justice (1)
6 seats for Ishraqat Kanon believed to be associated with the Shia marja'iya:

Diwanyah (1)
Baghdad (1)
Babil (2)
Karbala (2)

• • •

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More from @NancyEzzeddine

12 Oct
#Iraq election results are yet to be confirmed by @IHECOfficial but a few immediate takeaways in🧵
(1) @Mu_AlSadr w/ more seats than all other Shia blocs combined; (2) @AlHaLboosii 's Takadum registers the largest increase from 2018 with 38 new seats; (3) Fateh loses 28 seats and wins 4 Christian seats; (4) KDP almost double PUK seats; (5) 20 independents and 10 Imtidad
Negotiations over government formation already underway. A few scenarios:

*Sadr, KDP, & Halbousi win total of 148 seats together & can tip the balance
*Fateh (& other Shia groups) will attempt to challenge the legitimacy of results. Sadr can decide to escalate or absorb tensions
Read 4 tweets
17 Jun 20
#Nasrallah believes the US is forcing two options on #Lebanon: Starvation or disarmament of #Hezbollah. #Nasrallah assertively chooses war rather than succumbing to pressure - a unilateral choice in a divided society. Implications:

(1/6)
Social fragmentation and deeper divides will weaken the state and allow militia/party groups to thrive. Anti-#Hezbollah sentiment will be massaged by political opponents and the international community.

(2/6)
Long stalemate ahead unlikely to lead to civil conflict for a number of reasons: #Hezbollah's advanced intelligence & security apparatus will prevent it, 2008 (May 8) conflict has revoked any direct confrontation with #Hezbollah, & Sunni groups in #Lebanon remain moderate

(3/6)
Read 6 tweets

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