#Iraq election results are yet to be confirmed by @IHECOfficial but a few immediate takeaways in🧵
(1) @Mu_AlSadr w/ more seats than all other Shia blocs combined; (2) @AlHaLboosii 's Takadum registers the largest increase from 2018 with 38 new seats; (3) Fateh loses 28 seats and wins 4 Christian seats; (4) KDP almost double PUK seats; (5) 20 independents and 10 Imtidad
Negotiations over government formation already underway. A few scenarios:
*Sadr, KDP, & Halbousi win total of 148 seats together & can tip the balance
*Fateh (& other Shia groups) will attempt to challenge the legitimacy of results. Sadr can decide to escalate or absorb tensions
#Nasrallah believes the US is forcing two options on #Lebanon: Starvation or disarmament of #Hezbollah. #Nasrallah assertively chooses war rather than succumbing to pressure - a unilateral choice in a divided society. Implications:
(1/6)
Social fragmentation and deeper divides will weaken the state and allow militia/party groups to thrive. Anti-#Hezbollah sentiment will be massaged by political opponents and the international community.
(2/6)
Long stalemate ahead unlikely to lead to civil conflict for a number of reasons: #Hezbollah's advanced intelligence & security apparatus will prevent it, 2008 (May 8) conflict has revoked any direct confrontation with #Hezbollah, & Sunni groups in #Lebanon remain moderate